ECAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper
Action Costs Prediction by Multiplicative Weights Update
- Rostislav Horcík
This paper proposes a novel method to predict uncertain action costs in classical planning, considering the resulting plan’s quality rather than the prediction’s quality. Unlike the solution offered by decision-focused learning (DFL), our method does not compute a gradient of the regret loss function. Instead, it starts with any trained model, e. g. by the usual mean square error (MSE), to obtain a tuple of the approximate model’s parameters. Next, it randomly samples a collection of tuples of parameters in the neighborhood of the approximate parameters. Finally, it employs the Multiplicative Weights Update algorithm to compute a probability distribution over this collection reflecting the quality of the sampled tuples of parameters w. r. t. the regret loss function. A weighted average of the predictions w. r. t. the sampled tuples of parameters gives us the resulting action costs prediction that considerably reduces the average regret compared to the MSE-trained predictor.