Distributionally Robust Markov Decision Processes

We consider Markov decision processes where the values of the parameters are uncertain. This uncertainty is described by a sequence of nested sets (that is, each set contains the previous one), each of which corresponds to a probabilistic guarantee for a different confidence level so that a set of admissible probability distributions of the unknown parameters is specified. This formulation models the case where the decision maker is aware of and wants to exploit some (yet imprecise) a-priori information of the distribution of parameters, and arises naturally in practice where methods to estimate the confidence region of parameters abound. We propose a decision criterion based on distributional robustness: the optimal policy maximizes the expected total reward under the most adversarial probability distribution over realizations of the uncertain parameters that is admissible (i. e. , it agrees with the a-priori information). We show that finding the optimal distributionally robust policy can be reduced to a standard robust MDP where the parameters belong to a single uncertainty set, hence it can be computed in polynomial time under mild technical conditions.

Authors

• Huan Xu
• Shie Mannor Technion - Israel Institute of Technology NVIDIA Research

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