Conformalized Credal Set Predictors

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty representation, in particular, due to their ability to represent both the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty in a prediction. However, the design of methods for learning credal set predictors remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we make use of conformal prediction for this purpose. More specifically, we propose a method for predicting credal sets in the classification task, given training data labeled by probability distributions. Since our method inherits the coverage guarantees of conformal prediction, our conformal credal sets are guaranteed to be valid with high probability (without any assumptions on model or distribution). We demonstrate the applicability of our method on ambiguous classification tasks for uncertainty quantification.

Authors

• Alireza Javanmardi Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU Munich) Munich Center for Machine Learning (MCML)
• David Stutz
• Eyke Hüllermeier Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München Munich Center of Machine Learning German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence

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