Online Learning with Optimism and Delay

Inspired by the demands of real-time climate and weather forecasting, we develop optimistic online learning algorithms that require no parameter tuning and have optimal regret guarantees under delayed feedback. Our algorithms—DORM, DORM+, and AdaHedgeD—arise from a novel reduction of delayed online learning to optimistic online learning that reveals how optimistic hints can mitigate the regret penalty caused by delay. We pair this delay-as-optimism perspective with a new analysis of optimistic learning that exposes its robustness to hinting errors and a new meta-algorithm for learning effective hinting strategies in the presence of delay. We conclude by benchmarking our algorithms on four subseasonal climate forecasting tasks, demonstrating low regret relative to state-of-the-art forecasting models.

Authors

• Genevieve Flaspohler
• Francesco Orabona
• Judah Cohen
• Soukayna Mouatadid
• Miruna Oprescu
• Paulo Orenstein
• Lester W. Mackey

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