Isotonic Hawkes Processes

Hawkes processes are powerful tools for modeling the mutual-excitation phenomena commonly observed in event data from a variety of domains, such as social networks, quantitative finance and healthcare records. The intensity function of a Hawkes process is typically assumed to be linear in the sum of triggering kernels, rendering it inadequate to capture nonlinear effects present in real-world data. To address this shortcoming, we propose an Isotonic-Hawkes process whose intensity function is modulated by an additional nonlinear link function. We also developed a novel iterative algorithm which learns both the nonlinear link function and other parameters provably. We showed that Isotonic-Hawkes processes can fit a variety of nonlinear patterns which cannot be captured by conventional Hawkes processes, and achieve superior empirical performance in real world applications.

Authors

• Yichen Wang 0001
• Bo Xie 0002
• Nan Du 0002
• Le Song

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