Robust Autobidding for Noisy Conversion Prediction Models

Managing millions of digital auctions is essential to modern advertising auction systems. The primary approach to managing digital auctions is autobidding, which relies on Click-Through Rate and Conversion Rate metrics. While these quantities are estimated with ML models, their prediction uncertainty directly impacts advertisers’ revenue and bidding strategies. To address this issue, we propose RobustBid, an efficient method for robust autobidding taking intoaccountuncertaintyinCTRandCVRpredictions. Ourapproach leveragesadvanced, robustoptimizationtechniquestopreventlarge errors in bids if the estimates of CTR/CVR are perturbed. We derive an analytical solution to the stated robust optimization problem, which improves the runtime efficiency of the RobustBid method. The synthetic, iPinYou, and BAT benchmarks are used in our experimental evaluation of RobustBid. We compare our method with the non-robust baseline and the RiskBid algorithm using total conversion volume (TCV) and average cost-per-click (𝐶𝑃𝐶𝑎𝑣𝑔) as performance metrics. The experiments demonstrate that RobustBid provides bids that yield larger TCV and smaller𝐶𝑃𝐶𝑎𝑣𝑔 than competitors in the case of large perturbations in CTR/CVR predictions.

Authors

• Andrey Pudovikov AI Center & IAI MSU, Lomonosov Moscow State University
• Alexandra Khirianova Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences & AI Center & IAI MSU, Lomonosov Moscow State University
• Ekaterina Solodneva AI Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University
• Gleb Molodtsov MBZUAI
• Aleksandr Katrutsa AI Center, Lomonosov Moscow State University
• Yuriy Dorn AI Center & IAI MSU, Lomonosov Moscow State University
• Egor Samosvat Independent Researcher

Keywords

• Autobidding problem
• robust optimization
• uncertainty quantification of CTR model