Machine Learning for Sustainable Rice Production: Region-Scale Monitoring of Water-Saving Practices in Punjab, India

Rice cultivation supplies half the world's population with staple food, while also being a major driver of freshwater depletion--consuming roughly a quarter of global freshwater--and accounting for ~48% of greenhouse gas emissions from croplands. In regions like Punjab, India, where groundwater levels are plummeting at 41.6 cm/year, adopting water-saving rice farming practices is critical. Direct-Seeded Rice (DSR) and Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) can cut irrigation water use by 20–40% without hurting yields, yet lack of spatial data on adoption impedes effective adaptation policy and climate action. We present a machine learning framework to bridge this data gap by monitoring sustainable rice farming at scale. In collaboration with agronomy experts and a large-scale farmer training program, we obtained ground-truth data from ~1,400 fields across Punjab. Leveraging this partnership, we developed a novel dimensional classification approach that decouples sowing and irrigation practices, achieving F1 scores of 0.8 and 0.74 respectively, solely employing Sentinel-1 satellite imagery. Explainability analysis reveals that DSR classification is robust while AWD classification depends primarily on planting schedule differences, as Sentinel-1's 12-day revisit frequency cannot capture the higher frequency irrigation cycles characteristic of AWD practices. Applying this model across 3 million fields reveals spatial heterogeneity in adoption at the state level, highlighting gaps and opportunities for policy targeting. Our district-level adoption rates correlate well with government estimates (Spearman's=0.69 and Rank Biased Overlap=0.77). This study provides policymakers and sustainability programs a powerful tool to track practice adoption, inform targeted interventions, and drive data-driven policies for water conservation and climate mitigation at regional scale.

Authors

• Ando Shah University of California, Berkeley
• Rajveer Singh The Nature Conservancy
• Akram Zaytar Microsoft AI for Good Research Lab
• Girmaw Abebe Tadesse Microsoft AI for Good Research Lab
• Caleb Robinson Microsoft AI for Good Research Lab
• Negar Tafti The Nature Conservancy
• Stephen A. Wood The Nature Conservancy Yale School of the Environment
• Rahul Dodhia Microsoft AI for Good Research Lab
• Juan M Lavista Ferres Microsoft AI for Good Research Lab

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