EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A novel grey model based on fractional derivative and self-adaptive reverse accumulation and its application in energy forecasting
- Qiong Wang
- Zhihong Chen
- Guan Wang
- Wei Chen
In response to the global energy crisis and climate change, developing prediction models with high data adaptability is crucial for sustainable development. To address the challenges of general models’ inadequate adaptation to non-smooth, nonlinear energy data and the lack of data memory effects, therefore, a novel grey prediction model based on Caputo fractional derivative is established, effectively enhancing the adaptability of the model by incorporating both the Caputo fractional derivative and a fractional self-adaptive reverse accumulation operator, enabling dynamic memory and the adaptive adjustment of data weight. Additionally, adding a nonlinear correction term and optimizing the background value in the model enhances the performance to fit nonlinear data and further increases prediction accuracy. In this paper, the Laplace transform is employed to derive the analytical solution of the model, while the particle swarm optimization algorithm is utilized to optimize the parameters, ensuring the model achieves optimal performance. To verify the model’s validity, empirical analysis with various energy production and consumption data shows that the model significantly outperforms comparison models, presenting the excellent applicability of data in different types. Finally, the new model is applied to forecast the development trends of the average daily consumption of energy, natural gas, and electricity. The prediction results not only provide practical value for the application in energy forecasting but also offer a reliable theoretical basis and data support for relevant decision-making.