EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
An optimized hybrid deep learning approach with uncertainty quantification for accurate transformer winding hotspot temperature forecasting
- Ali Abdo
- Hongshun Liu
- Yuqing Wang
- Jiali Liu
- Fuqiang Ren
- Qingquan Li
- Redhwan Algabri
Accurate forecasting of Winding Hotspot Temperature (WhotsptTem) is essential for reliable power transformer operation; however, complex non-linear behavior under varying load and environmental conditions pose significant modeling challenges. Conventional methods often yield limited accuracy in capturing the high thermal inertia and conditional interactions inherent in these assets. Furthermore, existing Deep Learning (DL) approaches are often hindered by sub-optimal manual hyperparameter tuning and typically produce only deterministic point forecasts, failing to quantify the reliability risks associated with prediction uncertainty. To address these limitations, this study proposes a novel Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework that employs a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to autonomously optimize a hybrid Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architecture. This optimization strategy significantly enhances the model's ability to capture both high-frequency thermal transients and long-term dependencies, a necessity validated by dynamic feature analysis showing conditional load-ambient temperature interactions. Additionally, to provide statistically reliable probabilistic forecasts, a residual-based Monte Carlo (R-MC) simulation is integrated into the recursive multi-step forecasting process. The proposed Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) framework was validated by achieving a Prediction Interval Coverage Probability (PICP) of 93. 20% and a Mean Prediction Interval Width (MPIW) of 0. 3236 °C (°C). Extensive experiments on unseen test data demonstrate that the GA-optimized model outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, achieving a Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 0. 0908 °C and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0. 24%. This research advances predictive maintenance strategies by providing high-precision, context-aware, and risk-quantified thermal forecasts.