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Yuefeng Han

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2 papers

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AAAI Conference 2026 Conference Paper

Supervised Dynamic Dimension Reduction with Deep Neural Network

Zhanye Luo
Yuefeng Han
Xiufan Yu

This paper studies the problem of dimension reduction, tailored to improving time series forecasting with high-dimensional predictors. We propose a novel Supervised Deep Dynamic Principal component analysis (SDDP) framework that incorporates the target variable and lagged observations into the factor extraction process. Assisted by a temporal neural network, we construct target-aware predictors by scaling the original predictors in a supervised manner, with larger weights assigned to predictors with stronger forecasting power. A principal component analysis is then performed on the target-aware predictors to extract the estimated SDDP factors. This supervised factor extraction not only improves predictive accuracy in the downstream forecasting task but also yields more interpretable and target-specific latent factors. Building upon SDDP, we propose a factor-augmented nonlinear dynamic forecasting model that unifies a broad family of factor-model-based forecasting approaches. To further demonstrate the broader applicability of SDDP, we extend our studies to a more challenging scenario when the predictors are only partially observable. We validate the empirical performance of the proposed method on several real-world public datasets. The results show that our algorithm achieves notable improvements in forecasting accuracy compared to state-of-the-art methods.

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AAAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Factor Augmented Tensor-on-Tensor Neural Networks

Guanhao Zhou
Yuefeng Han
Xiufan Yu

This paper studies the prediction task of tensor-on-tensor regression in which both covariates and responses are multi-dimensional arrays (a.k.a., tensors) across time with arbitrary tensor order and data dimension. Existing methods either focused on linear models without accounting for possibly nonlinear relationships between covariates and responses, or directly employed black-box deep learning algorithms that failed to utilize the inherent tensor structure. In this work, we propose a Factor Augmented Tensor-on-Tensor Neural Network (FATTNN) that integrates tensor factor models into deep neural networks. We begin with summarizing and extracting useful predictive information (represented by the ``factor tensor'') from the complex structured tensor covariates, and then proceed with the prediction task using the estimated factor tensor as input of a temporal convolutional neural network. The proposed methods effectively handle nonlinearity between complex data structures, and improve over traditional statistical models and conventional deep learning approaches in both prediction accuracy and computational cost. By leveraging tensor factor models, our proposed methods exploit the underlying latent factor structure to enhance the prediction, and in the meantime, drastically reduce the data dimensionality that speeds up the computation. The empirical performances of our proposed methods are demonstrated via simulation studies and real-world applications to three public datasets. Numerical results show that our proposed algorithms achieve substantial increases in prediction accuracy and significant reductions in computational time compared to benchmark methods.

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