EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A clustering enhanced Wasserstein generative adversarial network approach for addressing uncertainty and limited data in photovoltaic output scenarios
- Qingrong Liu
- Pengfei Zhao
- Fanyue Qian
- Yuting Yao
- Hua Meng
- Yuan Gao
- Tingting Xu
- Yingjun Ruan
With the large-scale integration of photovoltaic (PV) resources introducing uncertainty and randomness to both the user and grid sides, accurately quantifying this uncertainty is critical for maintaining power grid stability and optimizing energy system operation. While scenario generation methods have advanced in addressing these challenges, they frequently rely on extensive historical data for training—an often scarce resource during the planning phase. To alleviate this limitation, this study proposes a K-medoids-enhanced Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (K-WGAN) integrated with feature clustering, which improves scenario generation accuracy and effectiveness and exhibits robust performance even with limited historical datasets. In comparative analyses with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), K-WGAN (equipped with feature clustering) showed significant superiority: (1) It captured PV output characteristics more precisely, with generated scenario mean increasing by 5% and variance rising by 13% (relative to reference values); (2) As the training dataset size decreases from 100% to 4%, LHS outperforms WGAN overall under data scarcity with random sampling, especially in terms of mean and standard deviation. However, experiments using LHS for data sampling across ten groups demonstrate that WGAN exhibits superior performance, compared with random sampling; (3) Ablation experiments validated the contributions of K-medoids clustering, Wasserstein distance, and GAN structure, with the integrated model reaching 99% prediction interval coverage probability (PICP). (4) Cross-regional validation using Japan and China datasets confirmed its adaptability to diverse climates and PV systems, yielding mean deviation 7% and coverage rate 98%. These results illustrate K-WGAN supports energy system planning under data scarcity while balancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.