EAAI Journal 2025 Journal Article
A multi-point combined prediction model for deformation monitoring of concrete dams
- Jiaquan Yang
- Huaizhi Su
- Hongchen Liu
- Kefu Yao
- Yining Qi
- Yongbo Wang
Accurate deformation prediction is essential for dam risk assessment and real-time early-warning. However, most existing approaches concentrate primarily on single-point displacement analysis, neglecting the spatiotemporal difference and intrinsic connections of regional deformation, which limits comprehensive understanding and accurate evaluation of the dam's structural response. Therefore, a novel multi-point combined prediction model (MCPM) for dam displacement prediction is proposed in this study. Cloud digital features generated by the cloud model are introduced to characterize the holistic displacement pattern of each measurement point. Then agglomerative hierarchical clustering is employed to group the measurement points exhibiting similar displacement patterns. Finally, a multi-input multi-output prediction framework, integrating convolutional neural network and bi-directional long short-term memory, is developed to simultaneously predict displacement for measurement points within the partition. Case-study analysis demonstrates that the MCPM achieves prediction accuracy comparable to traditional single-point models while significantly enhancing robustness and stability. Consequently, the proposed model provides valuable insights and practical guidance for dam operational management.