EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
Interpretable hybrid learning for fracturing optimization in deep coalbed methane under data scarcity
- Jie Liu
- Cong Xiao
- Xiaolun Yan
- Shicheng Zhang
- Tong Zhou
- Lei Zou
- Gui Cao
- Ying Zhou
The efficient development of deep coalbed methane (CBM) faces challenges including complex geological conditions, sensitivity of fracturing parameters, and data scarcity. This study focuses on a block within the Ordos Basin and proposes a hybrid Artificial Intelligence modeling methodology integrating data augmentation, ensemble learning, and interpretability analysis. The Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) was employed for data enhancement. Based on 17 geological and engineering parameters, a Stacked Generalization ensemble model integrating multiple algorithms including Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Gradient Boosting was constructed through randomized search hyperparameter optimization. Furthermore, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method was introduced to identify dominant controlling factors, combined with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) to achieve collaborative optimization of fracturing parameters. Results demonstrate that geological parameters are the primary controlling factors for post-fracturing productivity. Among geological parameters, gas content, reservoir pressure, and Young's modulus show significant influence, while among engineering parameters, low-viscosity slickwater volume, pad fluid volume, high-viscosity slickwater volume, and pumping rate exhibit considerable impact. After SMOTE and Stacking integration modeling, the production prediction model achieved acceptable prediction accuracy. The optimal fracturing parameter intervals were determined as: low-viscosity slickwater volume 100–150 cubic meters (m3), pad fluid volume 200–400 m3, high-viscosity slickwater volume 100–300 m3, and pumping rate 18–20 cubic meters per minute (m3/min). This study provides an interpretable and scalable methodological framework for fracturing optimization under data-scarce conditions in deep CBM development, offering valuable references for intelligent development of unconventional oil and gas resources.