EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
Air quality index prediction based on spatio-temporal graph neural networks: An empirical study of Xi’an, China
- Shiyuan Cui
- Yifan Yang
- Guisheng Liu
- Lin Shen
Air pollution, particularly the pollutants measured by the air quality index (AQI), poses significant threats to public health and the environment. Accurate AQI forecasting is crucial for implementing timely interventions and environmental management strategies. This study proposes a novel multi-distance spatio-temporal graph neural network with ensemble fusion (MD-STGNN-EN) for AQI forecasting. The MD-STGNN-EN model constructs nuanced spatial dependency structures by integrating six heterogeneous time-series distance metrics to generate multiple adjacency matrices. Subsequently, hidden spatio-temporal features are extracted using interleaved graph-convolution and temporal-convolution layers, core components of a spatio-temporal graph neural network (STGNN). These features inform an ensemble output module, incorporating convolutional neural network and multilayer perceptron layers, for forecast generation within a unified end-to-end training framework. Evaluated using AQI data from 12 monitoring stations in Xi’an, China, the MD-STGNN-EN demonstrated superior performance. Based on multiple established evaluation metrics, our model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 7. 0866, a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 14. 3329%, and a root mean square error (RMSE) of 11. 6184 in Xi’an. Further validation on a another dataset confirmed the model’s robustness. These findings highlight substantial improvements and underscore the proposed architecture’s efficacy in capturing complex spatio-temporal dependencies for enhanced AQI forecasting.