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Yao Xie 0002

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9 papers

1 author row

ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Time-Series Prediction

Jonghyeok Lee
Chen Xu
Yao Xie 0002

Conformal prediction has been a popular distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification. In this work, we present a novel conformal prediction method for time-series, which we call Kernel-based Optimally Weighted Conformal Prediction Intervals ($\texttt{KOWCPI}$). Specifically, $\texttt{KOWCPI}$ adapts the classic Reweighted Nadaraya-Watson (RNW) estimator for quantile regression on dependent data and learns optimal data-adaptive weights. Theoretically, we tackle the challenge of establishing a conditional coverage guarantee for non-exchangeable data under strong mixing conditions on the non-conformity scores. We demonstrate the superior performance of $\texttt{KOWCPI}$ on real time-series against state-of-the-art methods, where $\texttt{KOWCPI}$ achieves narrower confidence intervals without losing coverage.

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ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Statistical and Computational Guarantees of Kernel Max-Sliced Wasserstein Distances

Jie Wang 0049
March Boedihardjo
Yao Xie 0002

Optimal transport has been very successful for various machine learning tasks; however, it is known to suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Hence, dimensionality reduction is desirable when applied to high-dimensional data with low-dimensional structures. The kernel max-sliced (KMS) Wasserstein distance is developed for this purpose by finding an optimal nonlinear mapping that reduces data into $1$ dimension before computing the Wasserstein distance. However, its theoretical properties have not yet been fully developed. In this paper, we provide sharp finite-sample guarantees under milder technical assumptions compared with state-of-the-art for the KMS $p$-Wasserstein distance between two empirical distributions with $n$ samples for general $p\in[1, \infty)$. Algorithm-wise, we show that computing the KMS $2$-Wasserstein distance is NP-hard, and then we further propose a semidefinite relaxation (SDR) formulation (which can be solved efficiently in polynomial time) and provide a relaxation gap for the obtained solution. We provide numerical examples to demonstrate the good performance of our scheme for high-dimensional two-sample testing.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Conformal prediction for multi-dimensional time series by ellipsoidal sets

Chen Xu
Hanyang Jiang
Yao Xie 0002

Conformal prediction (CP) has been a popular method for uncertainty quantification because it is distribution-free, model-agnostic, and theoretically sound. For forecasting problems in supervised learning, most CP methods focus on building prediction intervals for univariate responses. In this work, we develop a sequential CP method called $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ that builds prediction $\textit{regions}$ for a multivariate response, especially in the context of multivariate time series, which are not exchangeable. Theoretically, we estimate $\textit{finite-sample}$ high-probability bounds on the conditional coverage gap. Empirically, we demonstrate that $\texttt{MultiDimSPCI}$ maintains valid coverage on a wide range of multivariate time series while producing smaller prediction regions than CP and non-CP baselines.

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ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference for Time Series

Chen Xu
Yao Xie 0002

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e. g. , time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e. g. , prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

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ICLR Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Spatio-temporal point processes with deep non-stationary kernels

Zheng Dong 0005
Xiuyuan Cheng
Yao Xie 0002

Point process data are becoming ubiquitous in modern applications, such as social networks, health care, and finance. Despite the powerful expressiveness of the popular recurrent neural network (RNN) models for point process data, they may not successfully capture sophisticated non-stationary dependencies in the data due to their recurrent structures. Another popular type of deep model for point process data is based on representing the influence kernel (rather than the intensity function) by neural networks. We take the latter approach and develop a new deep non-stationary influence kernel that can model non-stationary spatio-temporal point processes. The main idea is to approximate the influence kernel with a novel and general low-rank decomposition, enabling efficient representation through deep neural networks and computational efficiency and better performance. We also take a new approach to maintain the non-negativity constraint of the conditional intensity by introducing a log-barrier penalty. We demonstrate our proposed method's good performance and computational efficiency compared with the state-of-the-art on simulated and real data.

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ICLR Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Neural Spectral Marked Point Processes

Shixiang Zhu
Haoyun Wang
Zheng Dong 0005
Xiuyuan Cheng
Yao Xie 0002

Self- and mutually-exciting point processes are popular models in machine learning and statistics for dependent discrete event data. To date, most existing models assume stationary kernels (including the classical Hawkes processes) and simple parametric models. Modern applications with complex event data require more general point process models that can incorporate contextual information of the events, called marks, besides the temporal and location information. Moreover, such applications often require non-stationary models to capture more complex spatio-temporal dependence. To tackle these challenges, a key question is to devise a versatile influence kernel in the point process model. In this paper, we introduce a novel and general neural network-based non-stationary influence kernel with high expressiveness for handling complex discrete events data while providing theoretical performance guarantees. We demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed method compared with the state-of-the-art on synthetic and real data.

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ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Conformal prediction interval for dynamic time-series

Chen Xu
Yao Xie 0002

We develop a method to construct distribution-free prediction intervals for dynamic time-series, called \Verb|EnbPI| that wraps around any bootstrap ensemble estimator to construct sequential prediction intervals. \Verb|EnbPI| is closely related to the conformal prediction (CP) framework but does not require data exchangeability. Theoretically, these intervals attain finite-sample, \textit{approximately valid} marginal coverage for broad classes of regression functions and time-series with strongly mixing stochastic errors. Computationally, \Verb|EnbPI| avoids overfitting and requires neither data-splitting nor training multiple ensemble estimators; it efficiently aggregates bootstrap estimators that have been trained. In general, \Verb|EnbPI| is easy to implement, scalable to producing arbitrarily many prediction intervals sequentially, and well-suited to a wide range of regression functions. We perform extensive real-data analyses to demonstrate its effectiveness.

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ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Inferring serial correlation with dynamic backgrounds

Song Wei
Yao Xie 0002
Dobromir Rahnev

Sequential data with serial correlation and an unknown, unstructured, and dynamic background is ubiquitous in neuroscience, psychology, and econometrics. Inferring serial correlation for such data is a fundamental challenge in statistics. We propose a Total Variation (TV) constrained least square estimator coupled with hypothesis tests to infer the serial correlation in the presence of unknown and unstructured dynamic background. The TV constraint on the dynamic background encourages a piecewise constant structure, which can approximate a wide range of dynamic backgrounds. The tuning parameter is selected via the Ljung-Box test to control the bias-variance trade-off. We establish a non-asymptotic upper bound for the estimation error through variational inequalities. We also derive a lower error bound via Fano’s method and show the proposed method is near-optimal. Numerical simulation and a real study in psychology demonstrate the excellent performance of our proposed method compared with the state-of-the-art.

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ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Temporal Logic Point Processes

Shuang Li 0002
Lu Wang 0008
Ruizhi Zhang
Xiaofu Chang
Xuqin Liu
Yao Xie 0002
Yuan (Alan) Qi
Le Song

We propose a modeling framework for event data and aim to answer questions such as \emph{when} and \emph{why} the next event would happen. Our proposed model excels in small data regime with the ability to incorporate domain knowledge in terms of logic rules. We model the dynamics of the event starts and ends via intensity function with the structures informed by a set of first-order temporal logic rules. Using the softened representation of temporal relations, and a weighted combination of logic rules, our probabilistic model can deal with uncertainty in events. Furthermore, many well-known point processes (e. g. , Hawkes process, self-correcting point process) can be interpreted as special cases of our model given simple temporal logic rules. Our model, therefore, riches the family of point processes. We derive a maximum likelihood estimation procedure for our model and show that it can lead to accurate predictions when data are sparse and domain knowledge is critical.

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