EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A two-stage framework for photovoltaic power forecasting: Integrating adaptive hybrid decomposition with a novel predictor
- Xiaonan Shen
- Junjie Shen
- Tianle Zhang
- Yuting Zhang
- Yang Wang
To address the severe non-stationarity and multi-scale fluctuations in photovoltaic (PV) power output, this paper proposes a novel two-stage forecasting framework that integrates complexity-aware adaptive hybrid decomposition with an xLSTM (Extended Long-Short Term Memory)-KAN (Kolmogorov-Arnold Network) model. Initially, the original time series is decomposed using Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (ICEEMDAN). A K-Means clustering method based on Sample Entropy (SE) is then employed to identify the high-frequency component exhibiting the greatest stochasticity. This component subsequently undergoes a secondary adaptive decomposition via Sequential Variational Mode Decomposition (SVMD), thereby effectively isolating noise and enhancing the signal's purity. The optimized components are then fed into the xLSTM-KAN prediction model. Unlike traditional “black-box" deep learning architectures, this model integrates xLSTM to capture long-term dependencies and enhance parallel computation efficiency, while also leveraging KAN's learnable activation functions, which are parameterized by B-splines, to significantly improve approximation accuracy and model interpretability. Experimental results from four actual photovoltaic power plants (30–130 MW) show that the proposed temporal forecasting model, xLSTM-KAN, reduces MAE (Mean Absolute Error) by an average of 5. 81% and RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) by 7. 45% compared to other advanced architectures like iTransformer and LSTMformer. It also exhibits superior stability, with VAE (Variance of Absolute Error) decreasing by an average of 15. 02%. Moreover, the proposed adaptive decomposition strategy, SVMD-ICEEMDAN, lowers MAE by an average of 9. 12% and RMSE by 18. 44% compared to traditional hybrid methods such as VMD-CEEMDAN. These results validate the framework's robustness across different scales and climatic conditions, providing reliable and interpretable decision support for power systems with high renewable energy penetration.