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Xinyue Hu

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3 papers

1 author row

ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Enhancing Uncertainty Estimation and Interpretability with Bayesian Non-negative Decision Layer

Xinyue Hu
Zhibin Duan
Bo Chen 0001
Mingyuan Zhou

Although deep neural networks have demonstrated significant success due to their powerful expressiveness, most models struggle to meet practical requirements for uncertainty estimation. Concurrently, the entangled nature of deep neural net- works leads to a multifaceted problem, where various localized explanation tech- niques reveal that multiple unrelated features influence the decisions, thereby un- dermining interpretability. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian Nonnegative Decision Layer (BNDL), which reformulates deep neural networks as a conditional Bayesian non-negative factor analysis. By leveraging stochastic latent variables, the BNDL can model complex dependencies and provide robust uncertainty estimation. Moreover, the sparsity and non-negativity of the latent variables encourage the model to learn disentangled representations and decision layers, thereby improving interpretability. We also offer theoretical guarantees that BNDL can achieve effective disentangled learning. In addition, we developed a corresponding variational inference method utilizing a Weibull variational in- ference network to approximate the posterior distribution of the latent variables. Our experimental results demonstrate that with enhanced disentanglement capa- bilities, BNDL not only improves the model’s accuracy but also provides reliable uncertainty estimation and improved interpretability.

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ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Transformer-Modulated Diffusion Models for Probabilistic Multivariate Time Series Forecasting

Yuxin Li 0003
Wenchao Chen
Xinyue Hu
Bo Chen 0001
Baolin Sun
Mingyuan Zhou

Transformers have gained widespread usage in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting, delivering impressive performance. Nonetheless, these existing transformer-based methods often neglect an essential aspect: the incorporation of uncertainty into the predicted series, which holds significant value in decision-making. In this paper, we introduce a Transformer-Modulated Diffusion Model (TMDM), uniting conditional diffusion generative process with transformers into a unified framework to enable precise distribution forecasting for MTS. TMDM harnesses the power of transformers to extract essential insights from historical time series data. This information is then utilized as prior knowledge, capturing covariate-dependence in both the forward and reverse processes within the diffusion model. Furthermore, we seamlessly integrate well-designed transformer-based forecasting methods into TMDM to enhance its overall performance. Additionally, we introduce two novel metrics for evaluating uncertainty estimation performance. Through extensive experiments on six datasets using four evaluation metrics, we establish the effectiveness of TMDM in probabilistic MTS forecasting.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Vague Prototype-Oriented Diffusion Model for Multi-Class Anomaly Detection

Yuxin Li 0003
Yaoxuan Feng
Bo Chen 0001
Wenchao Chen
Yubiao Wang
Xinyue Hu
Baolin Sun
Chunhui Qu

Multi-class unsupervised anomaly detection aims to create a unified model for identifying anomalies in objects from multiple classes when only normal data is available. In such a challenging setting, widely used reconstruction-based networks persistently grapple with the "identical shortcut" problem, wherein the infiltration of abnormal information from the condition biases the output towards an anomalous distribution. In response to this critical challenge, we introduce a Vague Prototype-Oriented Diffusion Model (VPDM) that extracts only fundamental information from the condition to prevent the occurrence of the "identical shortcut" problem from the input layer. This model leverages prototypes that contain only vague information about the target as the initial condition. Subsequently, a novel conditional diffusion model is introduced to incrementally enhance details based on vague conditions. Finally, a Vague Prototype-Oriented Optimal Transport (VPOT) method is proposed to provide more accurate information about conditions. All these components are seamlessly integrated into a unified optimization objective. The effectiveness of our approach is demonstrated across diverse datasets, including the MVTec, VisA, and MPDD benchmarks, achieving state-of-the-art results.

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