EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
Damping-accumulating discrete grey power model and its application in collaborative prediction of energy transition
- Xinqing Qiao
- Wenping Wang
In the current transformative global energy landscape, accurately predicting the dynamics and evolution of energy systems is crucial for driving the energy transition. This paper proposes the damping-accumulating discrete grey power model. First, at the generation mechanism level, a damping-accumulating generation operator with time-decay characteristics is introduced. By applying differential weighting to historical observations, this operator overcomes the limitations of traditional grey models, which treat all data equally. This significantly enhances the model's dynamic responsiveness to recent trends in indicator changes. Secondly, a novel framework driven by discretisation is constructed at the model structure level. By embedding power exponent parameters that capture the nonlinear dynamic characteristics prevalent in energy systems, the framework can significantly improve the accuracy with which inflection points in system evolution and state transitions are identified. Finally, on the artificial intelligence side, the differential evolution algorithm is employed. Its strong global optimization capability reduces reliance on initial values and improves numerical stability and prediction accuracy. In the field of engineering applications, the model proposed in this paper outperforms nine benchmark models in both training and predicting China's energy engineering systems. The results for 2023-2024 indicate that total energy consumption is maintaining moderate growth with a slowing rate, the level of electrification is rising steadily, and energy consumption per ten thousand yuan of Gross Domestic Product fluctuates within a range. The model proposed in this paper provides a new analytical framework for collaborative prediction under dual carbon objectives by characterizing the collaboration mechanism among factors.