Weiqi Chen

AAAI Conference 2026 Conference Paper

MoCast: Learning Turbulent Motions Under Physical Guidance for Precipitation Nowcasting

• Binqing Wu
• Weiqi Chen
• Shiyu Liu
• Zongjiang Shang
• Haiou Wang
• Liang Sun
• Ling Chen

Precipitation nowcasting, a critical task for weather-sensitive applications, is highly challenging owing to the chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. Despite recent progress in deep learning, existing methods are limited in their capacity to model turbulent motions, one of the key drivers of precipitation evolution. Thus, we propose MoCast, the first work that incorporates turbulence knowledge to decompose turbulent motions into solvable components for precipitation nowcasting. Specifically, inspired by the continuity equation, MoCast introduces two core innovations: (1) a physics-guided motion module that learns turbulent motions from physically interpretable mean and fluctuating components based on Reynolds, Helmholtz, and Wavelet decomposition techniques, and (2) a motion-guided source-sink module that learns source-sink features considering the multi-scale impact from motions based on a mixture-of-experts architecture. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate that MoCast achieves the state-of-the-art performance. MoCast and its diffusion-based variant MoCast+ reduce CSI error by an average of 4.9% and 4.5% compared to the best deterministic and probabilistic baselines, respectively.

IJCAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Learning to Extrapolate and Adjust: Two-Stage Meta-Learning for Concept Drift in Online Time Series Forecasting

• Weiqi Chen
• Zhaoyang Zhu
• Yifan Zhang
• Lefei Shen
• Linxiao Yang
• Qingsong Wen
• Liang Sun

The inherent non-stationarity of time series in practical applications poses significant challenges for accurate forecasting. This paper tackles the concept drift problem where the underlying distribution or environment of time series changes. To better describe the characteristics and effectively model concept drifts, we first classify them into macro-drift (stable, long-term changes) and micro-drift (sudden, short-term fluctuations). Next, we propose a unified meta-learning framework called LEAF (Learning to Extrapolate and Adjust for Forecasting), where an extrapolation module is first introduced to track and extrapolate the prediction model in latent space considering macro-drift, and then an adjustment module incorporates meta-learnable surrogate loss to capture sample-specific micro-drift patterns. LEAF’s dual-stage approach effectively addresses diverse concept drifts and is model-agnostic which can be compatible with any deep prediction model. We further provide theoretical analysis to justify why the proposed framework can handle macro-drift and micro-drift. To facilitate further research in this field, we release three electric load time series datasets collected from real-world scenarios, exhibiting diverse and typical concept drifts. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of LEAF.

IJCAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

WeatherGNN: Exploiting Meteo- and Spatial-Dependencies for Local Numerical Weather Prediction Bias-Correction

• Binqing Wu
• Weiqi Chen
• Wengwei Wang
• Bingqing Peng
• Liang Sun
• Ling Chen

Due to insufficient local area information, numerical weather prediction (NWP) may yield biases for specific areas. Previous studies correct biases mainly by employing handcrafted features or applying data-driven methods intuitively, overlooking the complicated dependencies between weather factors and between areas. To address this issue, we propose WeatherGNN, a local NWP bias-correction method that utilizes Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to exploit meteorological dependencies and spatial dependencies under the guidance of domain knowledge. Specifically, we introduce a factor GNN to capture area-specific meteorological dependencies adaptively based on spatial heterogeneity and a fast hierarchical GNN to capture dynamic spatial dependencies efficiently guided by Tobler's first and second laws of geography. Our experimental results on two real-world datasets demonstrate that WeatherGNN achieves the state-of-the-art performance, outperforming the best baseline with an average of 4. 75 % on RMSE.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

OneNet: Enhancing Time Series Forecasting Models under Concept Drift by Online Ensembling

• Yifan Zhang
• Qingsong Wen
• Xue Wang
• Weiqi Chen
• Liang Sun
• Zhang Zhang
• Liang Wang
• Rong Jin

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose **On**line **e**nsembling **Net**work (**OneNet**). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than $\mathbf{50}\\%$ compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method.

IJCAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Transformers in Time Series: A Survey

• Qingsong Wen
• Tian Zhou
• Chaoli Zhang
• Weiqi Chen
• Ziqing Ma
• Junchi Yan
• Liang Sun

Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also triggered great interest in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of Transformers, the ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions is especially attractive for time series modeling, leading to exciting progress in various time series applications. In this paper, we systematically review Transformer schemes for time series modeling by highlighting their strengths as well as limitations. In particular, we examine the development of time series Transformers in two perspectives. From the perspective of network structure, we summarize the adaptations and modifications that have been made to Transformers in order to accommodate the challenges in time series analysis. From the perspective of applications, we categorize time series Transformers based on common tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification. Empirically, we perform robust analysis, model size analysis, and seasonal-trend decomposition analysis to study how Transformers perform in time series. Finally, we discuss and suggest future directions to provide useful research guidance.

EAAI Journal 2021 Journal Article

Fast just-in-time-learning recursive multi-output LSSVR for quality prediction and control of multivariable dynamic systems

• Ping Zhou
• Weiqi Chen
• Chengming Yi
• Zhaohui Jiang
• Tao Yang
• Tianyou Chai

AAAI Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Multi-Range Attentive Bicomponent Graph Convolutional Network for Traffic Forecasting

• Weiqi Chen
• Ling Chen
• Yu Xie
• Wei Cao
• Yusong Gao
• Xiaojie Feng

Traffic forecasting is of great importance to transportation management and public safety, and very challenging due to the complicated spatial-temporal dependency and essential uncertainty brought about by the road network and traffic conditions. Latest studies mainly focus on modeling the spatial dependency by utilizing graph convolutional networks (GCNs) throughout a fixed weighted graph. However, edges, i. e. , the correlations between pair-wise nodes, are much more complicated and interact with each other. In this paper, we propose the Multi-Range Attentive Bicomponent GCN (MRA-BGCN), a novel deep learning model for traffic forecasting. We first build the node-wise graph according to the road network distance and the edge-wise graph according to various edge interaction patterns. Then, we implement the interactions of both nodes and edges using bicomponent graph convolution. The multi-range attention mechanism is introduced to aggregate information in different neighborhood ranges and automatically learn the importance of different ranges. Extensive experiments on two real-world road network traffic datasets, METR-LA and PEMS-BAY, show that our MRA-BGCN achieves the stateof-the-art results.