EAAI Journal 2025 Journal Article
Explainable remaining useful life uncertainty prediction method for rolling bearing
- Ting Zhang
- Honglei Wang
Rolling bearing remaining useful life prediction is the core technology of equipment maintenance. Although deep learning-based prediction methods have made significant breakthroughs, the problems of insufficient model explainability and prediction result uncertainty quantification have seriously constrained the credibility of maintenance decisions. Therefore, this research combines prediction uncertainty quantification with model explanation to propose an explainable uncertainty prediction method. The method includes multi-dimensional feature extraction, remaining useful life uncertainty prediction, and Shapley additive explanations interpreter. For feature extraction, multi-dimensional feature vectors are constructed as network inputs by extracting time-domain features and frequency-domain features. Then, the remaining useful life prediction interval for the rolling bearing is compressed by the proposed gated temporal quantile network. Finally, the prediction model is explained using the Shapley additive explanations interpreter. The multi-case validation results based on the Xi'an Jiaotong University and Changxing Sumyoung Technology Co. , Ltd. (XJTU-SY) and Intelligent Maintenance Systems (IMS) rolling bearing full life cycle datasets show that the proposed model has an average interval coverage of 93. 96 % and an average interval width of 9. 92 %, which indicates that the model maintains high accuracy and robustness in different cases. The nonlinear mapping relationship between the prediction results and the features is clarified by analyzing the Shapley values. Finally, the Shapley values are used to rank the importance of the features to locate the position that may cause rolling bearing performance degradation, which provides credible decision support for the development of the predictive maintenance strategy.