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Timo Sztyler

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IJCAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

History Repeats Itself: A Baseline for Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting

  • Julia Gastinger
  • Christian Meilicke
  • Federico Errica
  • Timo Sztyler
  • Anett Schülke
  • Heiner Stuckenschmidt

Temporal Knowledge Graph (TKG) Forecasting aims at predicting links in Knowledge Graphs for future timesteps based on a history of Knowledge Graphs. To this day, standardized evaluation protocols and rigorous comparison across TKG models are available, but the importance of simple baselines is often neglected in the evaluation, which prevents researchers from discerning actual and fictitious progress. We propose to close this gap by designing an intuitive baseline for TKG Forecasting based on predicting recurring facts. Compared to most TKG models, it requires little hyperparameter tuning and no iterative training. Further, it can help to identify failure modes in existing approaches. The empirical findings are quite unexpected: compared to 11 methods on five datasets, our baseline ranks first or third in three of them, painting a radically different picture of the predictive quality of the state of the art.

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AAAI Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Explaining Neural Matrix Factorization with Gradient Rollback

  • Carolin Lawrence
  • Timo Sztyler
  • Mathias Niepert

Explaining the predictions of neural black-box models is an important problem, especially when such models are used in applications where user trust is crucial. Estimating the influence of training examples on a learned neural model’s behavior allows us to identify training examples most responsible for a given prediction and, therefore, to faithfully explain the output of a black-box model. The most generally applicable existing method is based on influence functions, which scale poorly for larger sample sizes and models. We propose gradient rollback, a general approach for influence estimation, applicable to neural models where each parameter update step during gradient descent touches a smaller number of parameters, even if the overall number of parameters is large. Neural matrix factorization models trained with gradient descent are part of this model class. These models are popular and have found a wide range of applications in industry. Especially knowledge graph embedding methods, which belong to this class, are used extensively. We show that gradient rollback is highly efficient at both training and test time. Moreover, we show theoretically that the difference between gradient rollback’s influence approximation and the true influence on a model’s behavior is smaller than known bounds on the stability of stochastic gradient descent. This establishes that gradient rollback is robustly estimating example influence. We also conduct experiments which show that gradient rollback provides faithful explanations for knowledge base completion and recommender datasets. An implementation1 and an appendix2 are available.

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