Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Conformal Prediction as Bayesian Quadrature

• Jake Snell
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

As machine learning-based prediction systems are increasingly used in high-stakes situations, it is important to understand how such predictive models will perform upon deployment. Distribution-free uncertainty quantification techniques such as conformal prediction provide guarantees about the loss black-box models will incur even when the details of the models are hidden. However, such methods are based on frequentist probability, which unduly limits their applicability. We revisit the central aspects of conformal prediction from a Bayesian perspective and thereby illuminate the shortcomings of frequentist guarantees. We propose a practical alternative based on Bayesian quadrature that provides interpretable guarantees and offers a richer representation of the likely range of losses to be observed at test time.

UAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Hindsight Merging: Diverse Data Generation with Language Models

• Veniamin Veselovsky
• Benedikt Stroebl
• Gianluca M. Bencomo
• Dilip Arumugam
• Lisa Schut
• Arvind Narayanan
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

Pre-training a language model equips it with a broad understanding of the world, while fine- tuning refines it into a helpful assistant. However, fine-tuning does not exclusively enhance task- specific behaviors but also suppresses some of the beneficial variability from pre-training. This reduction in diversity is partly due to the optimization process, which theoretically decreases model entropy in exchange for task performance. To counteract this, we introduce hindsight merging, a technique that combines a fine-tuned model with a previous training checkpoint using linear interpolation to restore entropy and improve performance. Hindsight-merged models retain strong instruction-following capabilities and alignment while displaying increased diversity present in the base model. Additionally, this results in improved inference scaling, achieving a consistent 20-50% increase in pass@10 relative to the instruction tuned model across a coding benchmark and series of models. Our findings suggest that hindsight merging is an effective strategy for generating diverse generations that follow instructions.

ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Language Models Trained to do Arithmetic Predict Human Risky and Intertemporal Choice

• Jian-Qiao Zhu
• Haijiang Yan
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

The observed similarities in the behavior of humans and Large Language Models (LLMs) have prompted researchers to consider the potential of using LLMs as models of human cognition. However, several significant challenges must be addressed before LLMs can be legitimately regarded as cognitive models. For instance, LLMs are trained on far more data than humans typically encounter, and may have been directly trained on human data in specific cognitive tasks or aligned with human preferences. Consequently, the origins of these behavioral similarities are not well understood. In this paper, we propose a novel way to enhance the utility of language models as cognitive models. This approach involves (i) leveraging computationally equivalent tasks that both a language model and a rational agent need to master for solving a cognitive problem and (ii) examining the specific task distributions required for a language model to exhibit human-like behaviors. We apply this approach to decision-making -- specifically risky and intertemporal choice -- where the key computationally equivalent task is the arithmetic of expected value calculations. We show that a small language model pretrained on an ecologically valid arithmetic dataset, which we call Arithmetic-GPT, predicts human behavior better than many traditional cognitive models. Pretraining language models on ecologically valid arithmetic datasets is sufficient to produce a strong correspondence between these models and human decision-making. Our results also suggest that language models used as cognitive models should be carefully investigated via ablation studies of the pretraining data.

ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Large Language Models Assume People are More Rational than We Really are

• Ryan Liu 0001
• Jiayi Geng
• Joshua C. Peterson
• Ilia Sucholutsky
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

In order for AI systems to communicate effectively with people, they must understand how we make decisions. However, people's decisions are not always rational, so the implicit internal models of human decision-making in Large Language Models (LLMs) must account for this. Previous empirical evidence seems to suggest that these implicit models are accurate --- LLMs offer believable proxies of human behavior, acting how we expect humans would in everyday interactions. However, by comparing LLM behavior and predictions to a large dataset of human decisions, we find that this is actually not the case: when both simulating and predicting people's choices, a suite of cutting-edge LLMs (GPT-4o \& 4-Turbo, Llama-3-8B \& 70B, Claude 3 Opus) assume that people are more rational than we really are. Specifically, these models deviate from human behavior and align more closely with a classic model of rational choice --- expected value theory. Interestingly, people also tend to assume that other people are rational when interpreting their behavior. As a consequence, when we compare the inferences that LLMs and people draw from the decisions of others using another psychological dataset, we find that these inferences are highly correlated. Thus, the implicit decision-making models of LLMs appear to be aligned with the human expectation that other people will act rationally, rather than with how people actually act.

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Mind Your Step (by Step): Chain-of-Thought can Reduce Performance on Tasks where Thinking Makes Humans Worse

• Ryan Liu 0001
• Jiayi Geng
• Addison J. Wu
• Ilia Sucholutsky
• Tania Lombrozo
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

Chain-of-thought (CoT) prompting has become a widely used strategy for improving large language and multimodal model performance. However, it is still an open question under which settings CoT systematically reduces performance. In this paper, we seek to identify the characteristics of tasks where CoT reduces performance by drawing inspiration from cognitive psychology, focusing on six representative tasks from the psychological literature where deliberation hurts performance in humans. In three of these tasks, state-of-the-art models exhibit significant performance drop-offs with CoT (up to 36. 3% absolute accuracy for OpenAI o1-preview compared to GPT-4o), while in others, CoT effects are mixed, with positive, neutral, and negative changes. While models and humans do not exhibit perfectly parallel cognitive processes, considering cases where thinking has negative consequences for humans helps identify settings where it negatively impacts models. By connecting the literature on human verbal thinking and deliberation with evaluations of CoT, we offer a perspective for understanding the impact of inference-time reasoning.

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

How do Large Language Models Navigate Conflicts between Honesty and Helpfulness?

• Ryan Liu 0001
• Theodore R. Sumers
• Ishita Dasgupta 0001
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

In day-to-day communication, people often approximate the truth — for example, rounding the time or omitting details — in order to be maximally helpful to the listener. How do large language models (LLMs) handle such nuanced trade-offs? To address this question, we use psychological models and experiments designed to characterize human behavior to analyze LLMs. We test a range of LLMs and explore how optimization for human preferences or inference-time reasoning affects these trade-offs. We find that reinforcement learning from human feedback improves both honesty and helpfulness, while chain-of-thought prompting skews LLMs towards helpfulness over honesty. Finally, GPT-4 Turbo demonstrates human-like response patterns including sensitivity to the conversational framing and listener’s decision context. Our findings reveal the conversational values internalized by LLMs and suggest that even these abstract values can, to a degree, be steered by zero-shot prompting.

ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Implicit Maximum a Posteriori Filtering via Adaptive Optimization

• Gianluca M. Bencomo
• Jake Snell
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires matrix storage, inversion, and multiplication or Monte Carlo estimation, none of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Here, we consider the standard Bayesian filtering problem as optimization over a time-varying objective. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems.

ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Learning with Language-Guided State Abstractions

• Andi Peng
• Ilia Sucholutsky
• Belinda Z. Li
• Theodore R. Sumers
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Jacob Andreas
• Julie Shah

We describe a framework for using natural language to design state abstractions for imitation learning. Generalizable policy learning in high-dimensional observation spaces is facilitated by well-designed state representations, which can surface important features of an environment and hide irrelevant ones. These state representations are typically manually specified, or derived from other labor-intensive labeling procedures. Our method, LGA (\textit{language-guided abstraction}), uses a combination of natural language supervision and background knowledge from language models (LMs) to automatically build state representations tailored to unseen tasks. In LGA, a user first provides a (possibly incomplete) description of a target task in natural language; next, a pre-trained LM translates this task description into a state abstraction function that masks out irrelevant features; finally, an imitation policy is trained using a small number of demonstrations and LGA-generated abstract states. Experiments on simulated robotic tasks show that LGA yields state abstractions similar to those designed by humans, but in a fraction of the time, and that these abstractions improve generalization and robustness in the presence of spurious correlations and ambiguous specifications. We illustrate the utility of the learned abstractions on mobile manipulation tasks with a Spot robot.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Analyzing Diffusion as Serial Reproduction

• Raja Marjieh
• Ilia Sucholutsky
• Thomas A. Langlois
• Nori Jacoby
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

Diffusion models are a class of generative models that learn to synthesize samples by inverting a diffusion process that gradually maps data into noise. While these models have enjoyed great success recently, a full theoretical understanding of their observed properties is still lacking, in particular, their weak sensitivity to the choice of noise family and the role of adequate scheduling of noise levels for good synthesis. By identifying a correspondence between diffusion models and a well-known paradigm in cognitive science known as serial reproduction, whereby human agents iteratively observe and reproduce stimuli from memory, we show how the aforementioned properties of diffusion models can be explained as a natural consequence of this correspondence. We then complement our theoretical analysis with simulations that exhibit these key features. Our work highlights how classic paradigms in cognitive science can shed light on state-of-the-art machine learning problems.

UAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Gaussian Process Surrogate Models for Neural Networks

• Michael Y. Li
• Erin Grant
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

Not being able to understand and predict the behavior of deep learning systems makes it hard to decide what architecture and algorithm to use for a given problem. In science and engineering, modeling is a methodology used to understand complex systems whose internal processes are opaque. Modeling replaces a complex system with a simpler, more interpretable surrogate. Drawing inspiration from this, we construct a class of surrogate models for neural networks using Gaussian processes. Rather than deriving kernels for infinite neural networks, we learn kernels empirically from the naturalistic behavior of finite neural networks. We demonstrate our approach captures existing phenomena related to the spectral bias of neural networks, and then show that our surrogate models can be used to solve practical problems such as identifying which points most influence the behavior of specific neural networks and predicting which architectures and algorithms will generalize well for specific datasets.

ICLR Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Hierarchical Abstraction for Combinatorial Generalization in Object Rearrangement

• Michael Chang 0003
• Alyssa L. Dayan
• Franziska Meier
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Sergey Levine
• Amy Zhang 0001

Object rearrangement is a challenge for embodied agents because solving these tasks requires generalizing across a combinatorially large set of configurations of entities and their locations. Worse, the representations of these entities are unknown and must be inferred from sensory percepts. We present a hierarchical abstraction approach to uncover these underlying entities and achieve combinatorial generalization from unstructured visual inputs. By constructing a factorized transition graph over clusters of entity representations inferred from pixels, we show how to learn a correspondence between intervening on states of entities in the agent's model and acting on objects in the environment. We use this correspondence to develop a method for control that generalizes to different numbers and configurations of objects, which outperforms current offline deep RL methods when evaluated on simulated rearrangement tasks.

UAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

On the informativeness of supervision signals

• Ilia Sucholutsky
• Ruairidh M. Battleday
• Katherine M. Collins
• Raja Marjieh
• Joshua C. Peterson
• Pulkit Singh
• Umang Bhatt
• Nori Jacoby

Supervised learning typically focuses on learning transferable representations from training examples annotated by humans. While rich annotations (like soft labels) carry more information than sparse annotations (like hard labels), they are also more expensive to collect. For example, while hard labels only provide information about the closest class an object belongs to (e. g. , “this is a dog”), soft labels provide information about the object’s relationship with multiple classes (e. g. , “this is most likely a dog, but it could also be a wolf or a coyote”). We use information theory to compare how a number of commonly-used supervision signals contribute to representation-learning performance, as well as how their capacity is affected by factors such as the number of labels, classes, dimensions, and noise. Our framework provides theoretical justification for using hard labels in the big-data regime, but richer supervision signals for few-shot learning and out-of-distribution generalization. We validate these results empirically in a series of experiments with over 1 million crowdsourced image annotations and conduct a cost-benefit analysis to establish a tradeoff curve that enables users to optimize the cost of supervising representation learning on their own datasets.

ICLR Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Words are all you need? Language as an approximation for human similarity judgments

• Raja Marjieh
• Pol van Rijn
• Ilia Sucholutsky
• Theodore R. Sumers
• Harin Lee
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Nori Jacoby

Human similarity judgments are a powerful supervision signal for machine learning applications based on techniques such as contrastive learning, information retrieval, and model alignment, but classical methods for collecting human similarity judgments are too expensive to be used at scale. Recent methods propose using pre-trained deep neural networks (DNNs) to approximate human similarity, but pre-trained DNNs may not be available for certain domains (e.g., medical images, low-resource languages) and their performance in approximating human similarity has not been extensively tested. We conducted an evaluation of 611 pre-trained models across three domains -- images, audio, video -- and found that there is a large gap in performance between human similarity judgments and pre-trained DNNs. To address this gap, we propose a new class of similarity approximation methods based on language. To collect the language data required by these new methods, we also developed and validated a novel adaptive tag collection pipeline. We find that our proposed language-based methods are significantly cheaper, in the number of human judgments, than classical methods, but still improve performance over the DNN-based methods. Finally, we also develop `stacked' methods that combine language embeddings with DNN embeddings, and find that these consistently provide the best approximations for human similarity across all three of our modalities. Based on the results of this comprehensive study, we provide a concise guide for researchers interested in collecting or approximating human similarity data. To accompany this guide, we also release all of the similarity and language data, a total of 206,339 human judgments, that we collected in our experiments, along with a detailed breakdown of all modeling results.

ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Distinguishing rule and exemplar-based generalization in learning systems

• Ishita Dasgupta 0001
• Erin Grant
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

Machine learning systems often do not share the same inductive biases as humans and, as a result, extrapolate or generalize in ways that are inconsistent with our expectations. The trade-off between exemplar- and rule-based generalization has been studied extensively in cognitive psychology; in this work, we present a protocol inspired by these experimental approaches to probe the inductive biases that control this trade-off in category-learning systems such as artificial neural networks. We isolate two such inductive biases: feature-level bias (differences in which features are more readily learned) and exemplar-vs-rule bias (differences in how these learned features are used for generalization of category labels). We find that standard neural network models are feature-biased and have a propensity towards exemplar-based extrapolation; we discuss the implications of these findings for machine-learning research on data augmentation, fairness, and systematic generalization.

ICLR Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Meta-Learning of Structured Task Distributions in Humans and Machines

• Sreejan Kumar
• Ishita Dasgupta 0001
• Jonathan D. Cohen 0003
• Nathaniel D. Daw
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

In recent years, meta-learning, in which a model is trained on a family of tasks (i.e. a task distribution), has emerged as an approach to training neural networks to perform tasks that were previously assumed to require structured representations, making strides toward closing the gap between humans and machines. However, we argue that evaluating meta-learning remains a challenge, and can miss whether meta-learning actually uses the structure embedded within the tasks. These meta-learners might therefore still be significantly different from humans learners. To demonstrate this difference, we first define a new meta-reinforcement learning task in which a structured task distribution is generated using a compositional grammar. We then introduce a novel approach to constructing a "null task distribution" with the same statistical complexity as this structured task distribution but without the explicit rule-based structure used to generate the structured task. We train a standard meta-learning agent, a recurrent network trained with model-free reinforcement learning, and compare it with human performance across the two task distributions. We find a double dissociation in which humans do better in the structured task distribution whereas agents do better in the null task distribution -- despite comparable statistical complexity. This work highlights that multiple strategies can achieve reasonable meta-test performance, and that careful construction of control task distributions is a valuable way to understand which strategies meta-learners acquire, and how they might differ from humans.

ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Modularity in Reinforcement Learning via Algorithmic Independence in Credit Assignment

• Michael Chang 0003
• Sidhant Kaushik
• Sergey Levine
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

Many transfer problems require re-using previously optimal decisions for solving new tasks, which suggests the need for learning algorithms that can modify the mechanisms for choosing certain actions independently of those for choosing others. However, there is currently no formalism nor theory for how to achieve this kind of modular credit assignment. To answer this question, we define modular credit assignment as a constraint on minimizing the algorithmic mutual information among feedback signals for different decisions. We introduce what we call the modularity criterion for testing whether a learning algorithm satisfies this constraint by performing causal analysis on the algorithm itself. We generalize the recently proposed societal decision-making framework as a more granular formalism than the Markov decision process to prove that for decision sequences that do not contain cycles, certain single-step temporal difference action-value methods meet this criterion while all policy-gradient methods do not. Empirical evidence suggests that such action-value methods are more sample efficient than policy-gradient methods on transfer problems that require only sparse changes to a sequence of previously optimal decisions.

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Decentralized Reinforcement Learning: Global Decision-Making via Local Economic Transactions

• Michael Chang 0003
• Sidhant Kaushik
• S. Matthew Weinberg
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Sergey Levine

This paper seeks to establish a framework for directing a society of simple, specialized, self-interested agents to solve what traditionally are posed as monolithic single-agent sequential decision problems. What makes it challenging to use a decentralized approach to collectively optimize a central objective is the difficulty in characterizing the equilibrium strategy profile of non-cooperative games. To overcome this challenge, we design a mechanism for defining the learning environment of each agent for which we know that the optimal solution for the global objective coincides with a Nash equilibrium strategy profile of the agents optimizing their own local objectives. The society functions as an economy of agents that learn the credit assignment process itself by buying and selling to each other the right to operate on the environment state. We derive a class of decentralized reinforcement learning algorithms that are broadly applicable not only to standard reinforcement learning but also for selecting options in semi-MDPs and dynamically composing computation graphs. Lastly, we demonstrate the potential advantages of a society’s inherent modular structure for more efficient transfer learning.

ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Cognitive model priors for predicting human decisions

• David D. Bourgin
• Joshua C. Peterson
• Daniel Reichman 0001
• Stuart Russell 0001
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

Human decision-making underlies all economic behavior. For the past four decades, human decision-making under uncertainty has continued to be explained by theoretical models based on prospect theory, a framework that was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences. However, theoretical models of this kind have developed slowly, and robust, high-precision predictive models of human decisions remain a challenge. While machine learning is a natural candidate for solving these problems, it is currently unclear to what extent it can improve predictions obtained by current theories. We argue that this is mainly due to data scarcity, since noisy human behavior requires massive sample sizes to be accurately captured by off-the-shelf machine learning methods. To solve this problem, what is needed are machine learning models with appropriate inductive biases for capturing human behavior, and larger datasets. We offer two contributions towards this end: first, we construct “cognitive model priors” by pretraining neural networks with synthetic data generated by cognitive models (i. e. , theoretical models developed by cognitive psychologists). We find that fine-tuning these networks on small datasets of real human decisions results in unprecedented state-of-the-art improvements on two benchmark datasets. Second, we present the first large-scale dataset for human decision-making, containing over 240, 000 human judgments across over 13, 000 decision problems. This dataset reveals the circumstances where cognitive model priors are useful, and provides a new standard for benchmarking prediction of human decisions under uncertainty.

ICML Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Investigating Human Priors for Playing Video Games

• Rachit Dubey
• Pulkit Agrawal 0001
• Deepak Pathak
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Alexei A. Efros

What makes humans so good at solving seemingly complex video games? Unlike computers, humans bring in a great deal of prior knowledge about the world, enabling efficient decision making. This paper investigates the role of human priors for solving video games. Given a sample game, we conduct a series of ablation studies to quantify the importance of various priors on human performance. We do this by modifying the video game environment to systematically mask different types of visual information that could be used by humans as priors. We find that removal of some prior knowledge causes a drastic degradation in the speed with which human players solve the game, e. g. from 2 minutes to over 20 minutes. Furthermore, our results indicate that general priors, such as the importance of objects and visual consistency, are critical for efficient game-play. Videos and the game manipulations are available at https: //rach0012. github. io/humanRL_website/

UAI Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Learning to select computations

• Frederick Callaway
• Sayan Gul
• Paul M. Krueger
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Falk Lieder

The efficient use of limited computational resources is an essential ingredient of intelligence. Selecting computations optimally according to rational metareasoning would achieve this, but this is computationally intractable. Inspired by psychology and neuroscience, we propose the first concrete and domain-general learning algorithm for approximating the optimal selection of computations: Bayesian metalevel policy search (BMPS). We derive this general, sample-efficient search algorithm for a computation-selecting metalevel policy based on the insight that the value of information lies between the myopic value of information and the value of perfect information. We evaluate BMPS on three increasingly difficult metareasoning problems: when to terminate computation, how to allocate computation between competing options, and planning. Across all three domains, BMPS achieved near-optimal performance and compared favorably to previously proposed metareasoning heuristics. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of BMPS in an emergency management scenario, even accounting for the overhead of metareasoning.

UAI Conference 2013 Conference Paper

Evaluating computational models of explanation using human judgments

• Michael Pacer
• Joseph Jay Williams
• Xi Chen
• Tania Lombrozo
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

We evaluate four computational models of explanation in Bayesian networks by comparing model predictions to human judgments. In two experiments, we present human participants with causal structures for which the models make divergent predictions and either solicit the best explanation for an observed event (Experiment 1) or have participants rate provided explanations for an observed event (Experiment 2). Across two versions of two causal structures and across both experiments, we find that the Causal Explanation Tree and Most Relevant Explanation models provide better fits to human data than either Most Probable Explanation or Explanation Tree models. We identify strengths and shortcomings of these models and what they can reveal about human explanation. We conclude by suggesting the value of pursuing computational and psychological investigations of explanation in parallel.

ICML Conference 2010 Conference Paper

Modeling Transfer Learning in Human Categorization with the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process

• Kevin Robert Canini
• Mikhail M. Shashkov
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001

UAI Conference 2008 Conference Paper

The Phylogenetic Indian Buffet Process: A Non-Exchangeable Nonparametric Prior for Latent Features

• Kurt T. Miller
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Michael I. Jordan

Nonparametric Bayesian models are often based on the assumption that the objects being modeled are exchangeable. While appropriate in some applications (e.g., bag-ofwords models for documents), exchangeability is sometimes assumed simply for computational reasons; non-exchangeable models might be a better choice for applications based on subject matter. Drawing on ideas from graphical models and phylogenetics, we describe a non-exchangeable prior for a class of nonparametric latent feature models that is nearly as efficient computationally as its exchangeable counterpart. Our model is applicable to the general setting in which the dependencies between objects can be expressed using a tree, where edge lengths indicate the strength of relationships. We demonstrate an application to modeling probabilistic choice.

UAI Conference 2006 Conference Paper

A Non-Parametric Bayesian Method for Inferring Hidden Causes

• Frank Wood
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Zoubin Ghahramani

We present a non-parametric Bayesian approach to structure learning with hidden causes. Previous Bayesian treatments of this problem define a prior over the number of hidden causes and use algorithms such as reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo to move between solutions. In contrast, we assume that the number of hidden causes is unbounded, but only a finite number influence observable variables. This makes it possible to use a Gibbs sampler to approximate the distribution over causal structures. We evaluate the performance of both approaches in discovering hidden causes in simulated data, and use our non-parametric approach to discover hidden causes in a real medical dataset.

UAI Conference 2006 Conference Paper

Structured Priors for Structure Learning

• Vikash K. Mansinghka
• Charles Kemp
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Joshua B. Tenenbaum

Traditional approaches to Bayes net structure learning typically assume little regularity in graph structure other than sparseness. However, in many cases, we expect more systematicity: variables in real-world systems often group into classes that predict the kinds of probabilistic dependencies they participate in. Here we capture this form of prior knowledge in a hierarchical Bayesian framework, and exploit it to enable structure learning and type discovery from small datasets. Specifically, we present a nonparametric generative model for directed acyclic graphs as a prior for Bayes net structure learning. Our model assumes that variables come in one or more classes and that the prior probability of an edge existing between two variables is a function only of their classes. We derive an MCMC algorithm for simultaneous inference of the number of classes, the class assignments of variables, and the Bayes net structure over variables. For several realistic, sparse datasets, we show that the bias towards systematicity of connections provided by our model yields more accurate learned networks than a traditional, uniform prior approach, and that the classes found by our model are appropriate.

UAI Conference 2004 Conference Paper

The Author-Topic Model for Authors and Documents

• Michal Rosen-Zvi
• Thomas L. Griffiths 0001
• Mark Steyvers
• Padhraic Smyth