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Thin Nguyen

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11 papers

2 author rows

ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Causal Discovery via Bayesian Optimization

Bao Duong
Sunil Gupta 0001
Thin Nguyen

Existing score-based methods for directed acyclic graph (DAG) learning from observational data struggle to recover the causal graph accurately and sample-efficiently. To overcome this, in this study, we propose DrBO (DAG recovery via Bayesian Optimization)—a novel DAG learning framework leveraging Bayesian optimization (BO) to find high-scoring DAGs. We show that, by sophisticatedly choosing the promising DAGs to explore, we can find higher-scoring ones much more efficiently. To address the scalability issues of conventional BO in DAG learning, we replace Gaussian Processes commonly employed in BO with dropout neural networks, trained in a continual manner, which allows for (i) flexibly modeling the DAG scores without overfitting, (ii) incorporation of uncertainty into the estimated scores, and (iii) scaling with the number of evaluations. As a result, DrBO is computationally efficient and can find the accurate DAG in fewer trials and less time than existing state-of-the-art methods. This is demonstrated through an extensive set of empirical evaluations on many challenging settings with both synthetic and real data. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/baosws/DrBO.

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ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Identifying Causal Direction via Variational Bayesian Compression

Quang-Duy Tran
Bao Duong
Phuoc Nguyen
Thin Nguyen

Telling apart the cause and effect between two random variables with purely observational data is a challenging problem that finds applications in various scientific disciplines. A key principle utilized in this task is the algorithmic Markov condition, which postulates that the joint distribution, when factorized according to the causal direction, yields a more succinct codelength compared to the anti-causal direction. Previous approaches approximate these codelengths by relying on simple functions or Gaussian processes (GPs) with easily evaluable complexity, compromising between model fitness and computational complexity. To address these limitations, we propose leveraging the variational Bayesian learning of neural networks as an interpretation of the codelengths. This allows the improvement of model fitness, while maintaining the succinctness of the codelengths, and the avoidance of the significant computational complexity of the GP-based approaches. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world benchmarks in cause-effect identification demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, showing promising performance enhancements on several datasets in comparison to most related methods.

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TMLR Journal 2025 Journal Article

Reinforcement Learning for Causal Discovery without Acyclicity Constraints

Bao Duong
Hung Le
Biwei Huang
Thin Nguyen

Recently, reinforcement learning (RL) has proved a promising alternative for conventional local heuristics in score-based approaches to learning directed acyclic causal graphs (DAGs) from observational data. However, the intricate acyclicity constraint still challenges the efficient exploration of the vast space of DAGs in existing methods. In this study, we introduce ALIAS (reinforced dAg Learning wIthout Acyclicity conStraints), a novel approach to causal discovery powered by the RL machinery. Our method features an efficient policy for generating DAGs in just a single step with an optimal quadratic complexity, fueled by a novel parametrization of DAGs that directly translates a continuous space to the space of all DAGs, bypassing the need for explicitly enforcing acyclicity constraints. This approach enables us to navigate the search space more effectively by utilizing policy gradient methods and established scoring functions. In addition, we provide compelling empirical evidence for the strong performance of ALIAS in comparison with state-of-the-arts in causal discovery over increasingly difficult experiment conditions on both synthetic and real datasets. Our implementation is provided at https://github.com/baosws/ALIAS.

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ECAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Enabling Causal Discovery in Post-Nonlinear Models with Normalizing Flows

Nu Hoang
Bao Duong
Thin Nguyen

Post-nonlinear (PNL) causal models stand out as a versatile and adaptable framework for modeling intricate causal relationships. However, accurately capturing the invertibility constraint required in PNL models remains challenging in existing studies. To address this problem, we introduce CAF-PoNo (Causal discovery via Normalizing Flows for Post-Nonlinear models), harnessing the power of the normalizing flows architecture to enforce the crucial invertibility constraint in PNL models. Through normalizing flows, our method precisely reconstructs the hidden noise, which plays a vital role in cause-effect identification through statistical independence testing. Furthermore, the proposed approach exhibits remarkable extensibility, as it can be seamlessly expanded to facilitate multivariate causal discovery via causal order identification, empowering us to efficiently unravel complex causal relationships. Extensive experimental evaluations on both simulated and real datasets consistently demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms several state-of-the-art approaches in both bivariate and multivariate causal discovery tasks.

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AAAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Root Cause Explanation of Outliers under Noisy Mechanisms

Phuoc Nguyen
Truyen Tran
Sunil Gupta
Thin Nguyen
Svetha Venkatesh

Identifying root causes of anomalies in causal processes is vital across disciplines. Once identified, one can isolate the root causes and implement necessary measures to restore the normal operation. Causal processes are often modelled as graphs with entities being nodes and their paths/interconnections as edge. Existing work only consider the contribution of nodes in the generative process, thus can not attribute the outlier score to the edges of the mechanism if the anomaly occurs in the connections. In this paper, we consider both individual edge and node of each mechanism when identifying the root causes. We introduce a noisy functional causal model to account for this purpose. Then, we employ Bayesian learning and inference methods to infer the noises of the nodes and edges. We then represent the functional form of a target outlier leaf as a function of the node and edge noises. Finally, we propose an efficient gradient-based attribution method to compute the anomaly attribution scores which scales linearly with the number of nodes and edges. Experiments on simulated datasets and two real-world scenario datasets show better anomaly attribution performance of the proposed method compared to the baselines. Our method scales to larger graphs with more nodes and edges.

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ECAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Scalable Variational Causal Discovery Unconstrained by Acyclicity

Nu Hoang
Bao Duong
Thin Nguyen

Bayesian causal discovery offers the power to quantify epistemic uncertainties among a broad range of structurally diverse causal theories potentially explaining the data, represented in forms of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, existing methods struggle with efficient DAG sampling due to the complex acyclicity constraint. In this study, we propose a scalable Bayesian approach to effectively learn the posterior distribution over causal graphs given observational data thanks to the ability to generate DAGs without explicitly enforcing acyclicity. Specifically, we introduce a novel differentiable DAG sampling method that can generate a valid acyclic causal graph by mapping an unconstrained distribution of implicit topological orders to a distribution over DAGs. Given this efficient DAG sampling scheme, we are able to model the posterior distribution over causal graphs using a simple variational distribution over a continuous domain, which can be learned via the variational inference framework. Extensive empirical experiments on both simulated and real datasets demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed model compared to several state-of-the-art baselines.

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AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Diffeomorphic Information Neural Estimation

Bao Duong
Thin Nguyen

Mutual Information (MI) and Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) are multi-purpose tools from information theory that are able to naturally measure the statistical dependencies between random variables, thus they are usually of central interest in several statistical and machine learning tasks, such as conditional independence testing and representation learning. However, estimating CMI, or even MI, is infamously challenging due the intractable formulation. In this study, we introduce DINE (Diffeomorphic Information Neural Estimator)–a novel approach for estimating CMI of continuous random variables, inspired by the invariance of CMI over diffeomorphic maps. We show that the variables of interest can be replaced with appropriate surrogates that follow simpler distributions, allowing the CMI to be efficiently evaluated via analytical solutions. Additionally, we demonstrate the quality of the proposed estimator in comparison with state-of-the-arts in three important tasks, including estimating MI, CMI, as well as its application in conditional independence testing. The empirical evaluations show that DINE consistently outperforms competitors in all tasks and is able to adapt very well to complex and high-dimensional relationships.

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ECAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Heteroscedastic Causal Structure Learning

Bao Duong
Thin Nguyen

Heretofore, learning the directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that encode the cause-effect relationships embedded in observational data is a computationally challenging problem. A recent trend of studies has shown that it is possible to recover the DAGs with polynomial time complexity under the equal variances assumption. However, this prohibits the heteroscedasticity of the noise, which allows for more flexible modeling capabilities, but at the same time is substantially more challenging to handle. In this study, we tackle the heteroscedastic causal structure learning problem under Gaussian noises. By exploiting the normality of the causal mechanisms, we can recover a valid causal ordering, which can uniquely identify the causal DAG using a series of conditional independence tests. The result is HOST (Heteroscedastic causal STructure learning), a simple yet effective causal structure learning algorithm that scales polynomially in both sample size and dimensionality. In addition, via extensive empirical evaluations on a wide range of both controlled and real datasets, we show that the proposed HOST method is competitive with state-of-the-art approaches in both the causal order learning and structure learning problems.

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CLeaR Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Bivariate Causal Discovery via Conditional Divergence

Bao Duong
Thin Nguyen

Telling apart cause and effect is a fundamental problem across many science disciplines. However, the randomized controlled trial, which is the golden-standard solution for this, is not always physically feasible or ethical. Therefore, we can only rely on passively observational data in such cases, making the problem highly challenging. Inspired by the observation that the conditional distribution of effect given cause, also known as the causal mechanism, is typically invariant in shape, we aim to capture the mechanism through estimating the stability of the conditional distribution. In particular, based on the inverse of stability – the divergence – we propose Conditional Divergence based Causal Inference (CDCI), a novel algorithm for detecting causal direction in purely observational data. By doing this, we can relax multiple strict assumptions commonly adopted in the causal discovery literature, including functional form and noise model. The proposed approach is generic and applicable to arbitrary measures of distribution divergence. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated on a variety of both synthetic and real data sets, which compares favorably with existing state-of-the-art methods.

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NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Variational Memory Encoder-Decoder

Hung Le
Truyen Tran
Thin Nguyen
Svetha Venkatesh

Introducing variability while maintaining coherence is a core task in learning to generate utterances in conversation. Standard neural encoder-decoder models and their extensions using conditional variational autoencoder often result in either trivial or digressive responses. To overcome this, we explore a novel approach that injects variability into neural encoder-decoder via the use of external memory as a mixture model, namely Variational Memory Encoder-Decoder (VMED). By associating each memory read with a mode in the latent mixture distribution at each timestep, our model can capture the variability observed in sequential data such as natural conversations. We empirically compare the proposed model against other recent approaches on various conversational datasets. The results show that VMED consistently achieves significant improvement over others in both metric-based and qualitative evaluations.

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JBHI Journal 2016 Journal Article

A Framework for Classifying Online Mental Health-Related Communities With an Interest in Depression

Budhaditya Saha
Thin Nguyen
Dinh Phung
Svetha Venkatesh

Mental illness has a deep impact on individuals, families, and by extension, society as a whole. Social networks allow individuals with mental disorders to communicate with others sufferers via online communities, providing an invaluable resource for studies on textual signs of psychological health problems. Mental disorders often occur in combinations, e. g. , a patient with an anxiety disorder may also develop depression. This co-occurring mental health condition provides the focus for our work on classifying online communities with an interest in depression. For this, we have crawled a large body of 620 000 posts made by 80 000 users in 247 online communities. We have extracted the topics and psycholinguistic features expressed in the posts, using these as inputs to our model. Following a machine learning technique, we have formulated a joint modeling framework in order to classify mental health-related co-occurring online communities from these features. Finally, we performed empirical validation of the model on the crawled dataset where our model outperforms recent state-of-the-art baselines.

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