EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
Power System state prediction method based on improved long short-term memory considering renewable energy uncertainty
- Yue Yu
- Chihan Zhou
- Yue Wang
- Tao Lu
- Ziqi Fan
To address the multi-dimensional uncertainty issues brought by high-penetration renewable energy sources grid integration, a power system state prediction method based on improved long short-term memory (LSTM) considering renewable energy uncertainty is proposed. First, a deep bidirectional long short-term memory neural network (Deep Bi-LSTM) is employed as the foundation of the Bayesian framework, capturing uncertainties in active distribution networks through posterior inference. Second, to address the limitations of the improved Deep Bi-LSTM model in feature extraction, an attention mechanism is introduced and a global-attention long short-term memory (GLSTM) model is constructed to strengthen the correlation between input features and target features. Finally, a novel state prediction method is proposed, which utilizes the GLSTM model to predict dynamic state variables, achieving overall modeling and quantification of both model uncertainty and aleatory uncertainty. Through simulation experiments conducted on IEEE 69-bus standard test systems, it is verified that the proposed Bayesian deep learning (BDL) method can effectively capture both types of uncertainties and achieve high-precision state prediction, providing a new feasible approach for the field of state prediction.