Susan Athey

TMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

CAREER: A Foundation Model for Labor Sequence Data

• Keyon Vafa
• Emil Palikot
• Tianyu Du
• Ayush Kanodia
• Susan Athey
• David Blei

Labor economists regularly analyze employment data by fitting predictive models to small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets. Although machine learning methods offer promise for such problems, these survey datasets are too small to take advantage of them. In recent years large datasets of online resumes have also become available, providing data about the career trajectories of millions of individuals. However, standard econometric models cannot take advantage of their scale or incorporate them into the analysis of survey data. To this end we develop CAREER, a foundation model for job sequences. CAREER is first fit to large, passively-collected resume data and then fine-tuned to smaller, better-curated datasets for economic inferences. We fit CAREER to a dataset of 24 million job sequences from resumes, and adjust it on small longitudinal survey datasets. We find that CAREER forms accurate predictions of job sequences, outperforming econometric baselines on three widely-used economics datasets. We further find that CAREER can be used to form good predictions of other downstream variables. For example, incorporating CAREER into a wage model provides better predictions than the econometric models currently in use.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Proportional Response: Contextual Bandits for Simple and Cumulative Regret Minimization

• Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy
• Ruohan Zhan
• Susan Athey
• Emma Brunskill

In many applications, e. g. in healthcare and e-commerce, the goal of a contextual bandit may be to learn an optimal treatment assignment policy at the end of the experiment. That is, to minimize simple regret. However, this objective remains understudied. We propose a new family of computationally efficient bandit algorithms for the stochastic contextual bandit setting, where a tuning parameter determines the weight placed on cumulative regret minimization (where we establish near-optimal minimax guarantees) versus simple regret minimization (where we establish state-of-the-art guarantees). Our algorithms work with any function class, are robust to model misspecification, and can be used in continuous arm settings. This flexibility comes from constructing and relying on “conformal arm sets" (CASs). CASs provide a set of arms for every context, encompassing the context-specific optimal arm with a certain probability across the context distribution. Our positive results on simple and cumulative regret guarantees are contrasted with a negative result, which shows that no algorithm can achieve instance-dependent simple regret guarantees while simultaneously achieving minimax optimal cumulative regret guarantees.

ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Adapting to misspecification in contextual bandits with offline regression oracles

• Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy
• Vitor Hadad
• Susan Athey

Computationally efficient contextual bandits are often based on estimating a predictive model of rewards given contexts and arms using past data. However, when the reward model is not well-specified, the bandit algorithm may incur unexpected regret, so recent work has focused on algorithms that are robust to misspecification. We propose a simple family of contextual bandit algorithms that adapt to misspecification error by reverting to a good safe policy when there is evidence that misspecification is causing a regret increase. Our algorithm requires only an offline regression oracle to ensure regret guarantees that gracefully degrade in terms of a measure of the average misspecification level. Compared to prior work, we attain similar regret guarantees, but we do no rely on a master algorithm, and do not require more robust oracles like online or constrained regression oracles (e. g. , Foster et al. (2020), Krishnamurthy et al. (2020)). This allows us to design algorithms for more general function approximation classes.

AAAI Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Stable Prediction with Model Misspecification and Agnostic Distribution Shift

• Kun Kuang
• Ruoxuan Xiong
• Peng Cui
• Susan Athey
• Bo Li

For many machine learning algorithms, two main assumptions are required to guarantee performance. One is that the test data are drawn from the same distribution as the training data, and the other is that the model is correctly speci- fied. In real applications, however, we often have little prior knowledge on the test data and on the underlying true model. Under model misspecification, agnostic distribution shift between training and test data leads to inaccuracy of parameter estimation and instability of prediction across unknown test data. To address these problems, we propose a novel Decorrelated Weighting Regression (DWR) algorithm which jointly optimizes a variable decorrelation regularizer and a weighted regression model. The variable decorrelation regularizer estimates a weight for each sample such that variables are decorrelated on the weighted training data. Then, these weights are used in the weighted regression to improve the accuracy of estimation on the effect of each variable, thus help to improve the stability of prediction across unknown test data. Extensive experiments clearly demonstrate that our DWR algorithm can significantly improve the accuracy of parameter estimation and stability of prediction with model misspecification and agnostic distribution shift.

AAAI Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Balanced Linear Contextual Bandits

• Maria Dimakopoulou
• Zhengyuan Zhou
• Susan Athey
• Guido Imbens

Contextual bandit algorithms are sensitive to the estimation method of the outcome model as well as the exploration method used, particularly in the presence of rich heterogeneity or complex outcome models, which can lead to difficult estimation problems along the path of learning. We develop algorithms for contextual bandits with linear payoffs that integrate balancing methods from the causal inference literature in their estimation to make it less prone to problems of estimation bias. We provide the first regret bound analyses for linear contextual bandits with balancing and show that our algorithms match the state of the art theoretical guarantees. We demonstrate the strong practical advantage of balanced contextual bandits on a large number of supervised learning datasets and on a synthetic example that simulates model misspecification and prejudice in the initial training data.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Learning in Games with Lossy Feedback

• Zhengyuan Zhou
• Panayotis Mertikopoulos
• Susan Athey
• Nicholas Bambos
• Peter Glynn
• Yinyu Ye

We consider a game-theoretical multi-agent learning problem where the feedback information can be lost during the learning process and rewards are given by a broad class of games known as variationally stable games. We propose a simple variant of the classical online gradient descent algorithm, called reweighted online gradient descent (ROGD) and show that in variationally stable games, if each agent adopts ROGD, then almost sure convergence to the set of Nash equilibria is guaranteed, even when the feedback loss is asynchronous and arbitrarily corrrelated among agents. We then extend the framework to deal with unknown feedback loss probabilities by using an estimator (constructed from past data) in its replacement. Finally, we further extend the framework to accomodate both asynchronous loss and stochastic rewards and establish that multi-agent ROGD learning still converges to the set of Nash equilibria in such settings. Together, these results contribute to the broad lanscape of multi-agent online learning by significantly relaxing the feedback information that is required to achieve desirable outcomes.

NeurIPS Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Context Selection for Embedding Models

• Liping Liu
• Francisco Ruiz
• Susan Athey
• David Blei

Word embeddings are an effective tool to analyze language. They have been recently extended to model other types of data beyond text, such as items in recommendation systems. Embedding models consider the probability of a target observation (a word or an item) conditioned on the elements in the context (other words or items). In this paper, we show that conditioning on all the elements in the context is not optimal. Instead, we model the probability of the target conditioned on a learned subset of the elements in the context. We use amortized variational inference to automatically choose this subset. Compared to standard embedding models, this method improves predictions and the quality of the embeddings.

NeurIPS Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Structured Embedding Models for Grouped Data

• Maja Rudolph
• Francisco Ruiz
• Susan Athey
• David Blei

Word embeddings are a powerful approach for analyzing language, and exponential family embeddings (EFE) extend them to other types of data. Here we develop structured exponential family embeddings (S-EFE), a method for discovering embeddings that vary across related groups of data. We study how the word usage of U. S. Congressional speeches varies across states and party affiliation, how words are used differently across sections of the ArXiv, and how the co-purchase patterns of groceries can vary across seasons. Key to the success of our method is that the groups share statistical information. We develop two sharing strategies: hierarchical modeling and amortization. We demonstrate the benefits of this approach in empirical studies of speeches, abstracts, and shopping baskets. We show how SEFE enables group-specific interpretation of word usage, and outperforms EFE in predicting held-out data.

TARK Conference 2009 Invited Paper

Designing markets: economics, computer science and the real world

• Susan Athey