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Supriya Savalkar

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3 papers

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AAAI Conference 2026 Conference Paper

ForeSWE: Forecasting Snow-Water Equivalent with an Uncertainty-Aware Attention Model

Krishu K Thapa
Supriya Savalkar
Bhupinderjeet Singh
Trong Nghia Hoang
Kirti Rajagopalan
Ananth Kalyanaraman

Various complex water management decisions are made in snow-dominant watersheds with the knowledge of Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE)---a key measure widely used to estimate the water content of a snowpack. However, forecasting SWE is challenging because SWE is influenced by various factors including topography and an array of environmental conditions, and has therefore been observed to be spatio-temporally variable. Classical approaches to SWE forecasting have not adequately utilized these spatial/temporal correlations, nor do they provide uncertainty estimates --- which can be of significant value to the decision maker. In this paper, we present ForeSWE, a new probabilistic spatio-temporal forecasting model that integrates deep learning and classical probabilistic techniques. The resulting model features a combination of an attention mechanism to integrate spatiotemporal features and interactions, alongside a Gaussian process module that provides principled quantification of prediction uncertainty. We evaluate the model on data from 512 Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations in the Western US. The results show significant improvements in both forecasting accuracy and prediction interval compared to state-of-the-art approaches. The results also serve to highlight the efficacy in uncertainty estimates between different approaches. Collectively, these findings have provided a platform for deployment and feedback by the water management community.

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IJCAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Streamflow Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification for Water Management: A Constrained Reasoning and Learning Approach

Mohammed Amine Gharsallaoui
Bhupinderjeet Singh
Supriya Savalkar
Aryan Deshwal
Ananth Kalyanaraman
Kirti Rajagopalan
Janardhan Rao Doppa

Predicting the spatiotemporal variation in streamflow along with uncertainty quantification enables decision-making for sustainable management of scarce water resources. Process-based hydrological models (aka physics-based models) are based on physical laws, but use simplifying assumptions which can lead to poor accuracy. Data-driven approaches offer a powerful alternative, but they require large amount of training data and tend to produce predictions that are inconsistent with physical laws. This paper studies a constrained reasoning and learning (CRL) approach where physical laws represented as logical constraints are integrated as a layer in the deep neural network. To address small data setting, we develop a theoretically-grounded training approach to improve the generalization accuracy of deep models. For uncertainty quantification, we combine the synergistic strengths of Gaussian processes (GPs) and deep temporal models by passing the learned latent representation as input to a standard distance-based kernel. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of both CRL and GP with deep kernel approaches over strong baseline methods.

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AAMAS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Value-based Resource Matching with Fairness Criteria: Application to Agricultural Water Trading

Abhijin Adiga
Yohai Trabelsi
Tanvir Ferdousi
Madhav Marathe
S. S. Ravi
Samarth Swarup
Anil Kumar Vullikanti
Mandy L. Wilson

Optimal allocation of agricultural water in the event of droughts is an important global problem. In addressing this problem, many aspects, including the welfare of farmers, the economy, and the environment, must be considered. Under this backdrop, our work focuses on several resource-matching problems accounting for agents with multi-crop portfolios, geographic constraints, and fairness. First, we address a matching problem where the goal is to maximize a welfare function in two-sided markets where buyers’ requirements and sellers’ supplies are represented by value functions that assign prices (or costs) to specified volumes of water. For the setting where the value functions satisfy certain monotonicity properties, we present an efficient algorithm that maximizes a social welfare function. When there are minimum water requirement constraints, we present a randomized algorithm which ensures that the constraints are satisfied in expectation. For a single seller–multiple buyers setting with fairness constraints, we design an efficient algorithm that maximizes the minimum level of satisfaction of any buyer. We also present computational complexity results that highlight the limits on the generalizability of our results. We evaluate the algorithms developed in our work with experiments on both real-world and synthetic data sets with respect to drought severity, value functions, and seniority of agents. ∗Both authors contributed equally to this work. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution International 4. 0 License. Proc. of the 23rd International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2024), N. Alechina, V. Dignum, M. Dastani, J. S. Sichman (eds.), May 6 – 10, 2024, Auckland, New Zealand. © 2024 International Foundation for Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (www. ifaamas. org).

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