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Sihong He

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11 papers

2 author rows

AAAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

CUQDS: Conformal Uncertainty Quantification Under Distribution Shift for Trajectory Prediction

Huiqun Huang
Sihong He
Fei Miao

Trajectory prediction models that can infer both future trajectories and their associated uncertainties of the target vehicles is crucial for safe and robust navigation and path planning of autonomous vehicles. However, the majority of existing trajectory prediction models have neither considered reducing the uncertainty as one objective during the training stage nor provided reliable uncertainty quantification during inference stage, especially under potential distribution shift. Therefore, in this paper, we propose the Conformal Uncertainty Quantification under Distribution Shift framework, CUQDS, to quantify the uncertainty of the predicted trajectories of existing trajectory prediction models under potential data distribution shift, while improving the prediction accuracy of the models and reducing the estimated uncertainty during the training stage. Specifically, CUQDS includes 1) a learning-based Gaussian process regression module that models the output distribution of the base model (any existing trajectory prediction neural networks) and reduces the estimated uncertainty by an additional loss term, and 2) a statistical-based Conformal P control module to calibrate the estimated uncertainty from the Gaussian process regression module in an online setting under potential distribution shift between training and testing data. Experimental results on various state-of-the-art methods using benchmark motion forecasting datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed design.

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ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Pessimism Principle Can Be Effective: Towards a Framework for Zero-Shot Transfer Reinforcement Learning

Chi Zhang
Ziying Jia
George K. Atia
Sihong He
Yue Wang 0068

Transfer reinforcement learning aims to derive a near-optimal policy for a target environment with limited data by leveraging abundant data from related source domains. However, it faces two key challenges: the lack of performance guarantees for the transferred policy, which can lead to undesired actions, and the risk of negative transfer when multiple source domains are involved. We propose a novel framework based on the pessimism principle, which constructs and optimizes a conservative estimation of the target domain’s performance. Our framework effectively addresses the two challenges by providing an optimized lower bound on target performance, ensuring safe and reliable decisions, and by exhibiting monotonic improvement with respect to the quality of the source domains, thereby avoiding negative transfer. We construct two types of conservative estimations, rigorously characterize their effectiveness, and develop efficient distributed algorithms with convergence guarantees. Our framework provides a theoretically sound and practically robust solution for transfer learning in reinforcement learning.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Constrained Reinforcement Learning Under Model Mismatch

Zhongchang Sun
Sihong He
Fei Miao
Shaofeng Zou

Existing studies on constrained reinforcement learning (RL) may obtain a well-performing policy in the training environment. However, when deployed in a real environment, it may easily violate constraints that were originally satisfied during training because there might be model mismatch between the training and real environments. To address this challenge, we formulate the problem as constrained RL under model uncertainty, where the goal is to learn a policy that optimizes the reward and at the same time satisfies the constraint under model mismatch. We develop a Robust Constrained Policy Optimization (RCPO) algorithm, which is the first algorithm that applies to large/continuous state space and has theoretical guarantees on worst-case reward improvement and constraint violation at each iteration during the training. We show the effectiveness of our algorithm on a set of RL tasks with constraints.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Momentum for the Win: Collaborative Federated Reinforcement Learning across Heterogeneous Environments

Han Wang 0016
Sihong He
Zhili Zhang
Fei Miao
James Anderson 0001

We explore a Federated Reinforcement Learning (FRL) problem where $N$ agents collaboratively learn a common policy without sharing their trajectory data. To date, existing FRL work has primarily focused on agents operating in the same or “similar" environments. In contrast, our problem setup allows for arbitrarily large levels of environment heterogeneity. To obtain the optimal policy which maximizes the average performance across all potentially completely different environments, we propose two algorithms: FedSVRPG-M and FedHAPG-M. In contrast to existing results, we demonstrate that both FedSVRPG-M and FedHAPG-M, both of which leverage momentum mechanisms, can exactly converge to a stationary point of the average performance function, regardless of the magnitude of environment heterogeneity. Furthermore, by incorporating the benefits of variance-reduction techniques or Hessian approximation, both algorithms achieve state-of-the-art convergence results, characterized by a sample complexity of $\mathcal{O}\left(\epsilon^{-\frac{3}{2}}/N\right)$. Notably, our algorithms enjoy linear convergence speedups with respect to the number of agents, highlighting the benefit of collaboration among agents in finding a common policy.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Policy Optimization for Robust Average Reward MDPs

Zhongchang Sun
Sihong He
Fei Miao
Shaofeng Zou

This paper studies first-order policy optimization for robust average cost Markov decision processes (MDPs). Specifically, we focus on ergodic Markov chains. For robust average cost MDPs, the goal is to optimize the worst-case average cost over an uncertainty set of transition kernels. We first develop a sub-gradient of the robust average cost. Based on the sub-gradient, a robust policy mirror descent approach is further proposed. To characterize its iteration complexity, we develop a lower bound on the difference of robust average cost between two policies and further show that the robust average cost satisfies the PL-condition. We then show that with increasing step size, our robust policy mirror descent achieves a linear convergence rate in the optimality gap, and with constant step size, our algorithm converges to an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with an iteration complexity of $\mathcal{O}(1/\epsilon)$. The convergence rate of our algorithm matches with the best convergence rate of policy-based algorithms for robust MDPs. Moreover, our algorithm is the first algorithm that converges to the global optimum with general uncertainty sets for robust average cost MDPs. We provide simulation results to demonstrate the performance of our algorithm.

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TMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

What is the Solution for State-Adversarial Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning?

Songyang Han
Sanbao Su
Sihong He
Shuo Han
Haizhao Yang
Shaofeng Zou
Fei Miao

Various methods for Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) have been developed with the assumption that agents' policies are based on accurate state information. However, policies learned through Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) are susceptible to adversarial state perturbation attacks. In this work, we propose a State-Adversarial Markov Game (SAMG) and make the first attempt to investigate different solution concepts of MARL under state uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the commonly used solution concepts of optimal agent policy and robust Nash equilibrium do not always exist in SAMGs. To circumvent this difficulty, we consider a new solution concept called robust agent policy, where agents aim to maximize the worst-case expected state value. We prove the existence of robust agent policy for finite state and finite action SAMGs. Additionally, we propose a Robust Multi-Agent Adversarial Actor-Critic (RMA3C) algorithm to learn robust policies for MARL agents under state uncertainties. Our experiments demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms existing methods when faced with state perturbations and greatly improves the robustness of MARL policies. Our code is public on https://songyanghan.github.io/what_is_solution/.

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IROS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

A Robust and Constrained Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Electric Vehicle Rebalancing Method in AMoD Systems

Sihong He
Yue Wang 0068
Shuo Han 0002
Shaofeng Zou
Fei Miao

Electric vehicles (EVs) play critical roles in autonomous mobility-on-demand (AMoD) systems, but their unique charging patterns increase the model uncertainties in AMoD systems (e. g. state transition probability). Since there usually exists a mismatch between the training and test/true environments, incorporating model uncertainty into system design is of critical importance in real-world applications. However, model uncertainties have not been considered explicitly in EV AMoD system rebalancing by existing literature yet, and the coexistence of model uncertainties and constraints that the decision should satisfy makes the problem even more challenging. In this work, we design a robust and constrained multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework with state transition kernel uncertainty for EV AMoD systems. We then propose a robust and constrained MARL algorithm (ROCOMA) with robust natural policy gradients (RNPG) that trains a robust EV rebalancing policy to balance the supply-demand ratio and the charging utilization rate across the city under model uncertainty. Experiments show that the ROCOMA can learn an effective and robust rebalancing policy. It outperforms non-robust MARL methods in the presence of model uncertainties. It increases the system fairness by 19. 6% and decreases the rebalancing costs by 75. 8%.

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IROS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Robust Electric Vehicle Balancing of Autonomous Mobility-on-Demand System: A Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning Approach

Sihong He
Shuo Han 0002
Fei Miao

Electric autonomous vehicles (EAVs) are getting attention in future autonomous mobility-on-demand (AMoD) systems due to their economic and societal benefits. However, EAVs' unique charging patterns (long charging time, high charging frequency, unpredictable charging behaviors, etc.) make it challenging to accurately predict the EAVs supply in E-AMoD systems. Furthermore, the mobility demand's prediction uncertainty makes it an urgent and challenging task to design an integrated vehicle balancing solution under supply and demand uncertainties. Despite the success of reinforcement learning-based E-AMoD balancing algorithms, state uncertainties under the EV supply or mobility demand remain unexplored. In this work, we design a multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL)-based framework for EAVs balancing in E-AMoD systems, with adversarial agents to model both the EAVs supply and mobility demand uncertainties that may undermine the vehicle balancing solutions. We then propose a robust E-AMoD Balancing MARL (REBAMA) algorithm to train a robust EAVs balancing policy to balance both the supply-demand ratio and charging utilization rate across the whole city. Experiments show that our proposed robust method performs better compared with a non-robust MARL method that does not consider state uncertainties; it improves the reward, charging utilization fairness, and supply-demand fairness by 19. 28%, 28. 18%, and 3. 97%, respectively. Compared with a robust optimization-based method, the proposed MARL algorithm can improve the reward, charging utilization fairness, and supply-demand fairness by 8. 21%, 8. 29%, and 9. 42%, respectively.

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TMLR Journal 2023 Journal Article

Robust Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with State Uncertainty

Sihong He
Songyang Han
Sanbao Su
Shuo Han
Shaofeng Zou
Fei Miao

In real-world multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) applications, agents may not have perfect state information (e.g., due to inaccurate measurement or malicious attacks), which challenges the robustness of agents' policies. Though robustness is getting important in MARL deployment, little prior work has studied state uncertainties in MARL, neither in problem formulation nor algorithm design. Motivated by this robustness issue and the lack of corresponding studies, we study the problem of MARL with state uncertainty in this work. We provide the first attempt to the theoretical and empirical analysis of this challenging problem. We first model the problem as a Markov Game with state perturbation adversaries (MG-SPA) by introducing a set of state perturbation adversaries into a Markov Game. We then introduce robust equilibrium (RE) as the solution concept of an MG-SPA. We conduct a fundamental analysis regarding MG-SPA such as giving conditions under which such a robust equilibrium exists. Then we propose a robust multi-agent Q-learning (RMAQ) algorithm to find such an equilibrium, with convergence guarantees. To handle high-dimensional state-action space, we design a robust multi-agent actor-critic (RMAAC) algorithm based on an analytical expression of the policy gradient derived in the paper. Our experiments show that the proposed RMAQ algorithm converges to the optimal value function; our RMAAC algorithm outperforms several MARL and robust MARL methods in multiple multi-agent environments when state uncertainty is present. The source code is public on https://github.com/sihongho/robust_marl_with_state_uncertainty.

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ICRA Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Uncertainty Quantification of Collaborative Detection for Self-Driving

Sanbao Su
Yiming Li 0003
Sihong He
Songyang Han
Chen Feng 0002
Caiwen Ding
Fei Miao

Sharing information between connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) fundamentally improves the performance of collaborative object detection for self-driving. However, CAVs still have uncertainties on object detection due to practical challenges, which will affect the later modules in self-driving such as planning and control. Hence, uncertainty quantification is crucial for safety-critical systems such as CAVs. Our work is the first to estimate the uncertainty of collaborative object detection. We propose a novel uncertainty quantification method, called Double- M Quantification, which tailors a moving block bootstrap (MBB) algorithm with direct modeling of the multivariant Gaussian distribution of each corner of the bounding box. Our method captures both the epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty with one inference pass based on the offline Double- M training process. And it can be used with different collaborative object detectors. Through experiments on the comprehensive collaborative perception dataset, we show that our Double-M method achieves more than 4× improvement on uncertainty score and more than 3% accuracy improvement, compared with the state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods. Our code is public on https://coperception.github.io/double-m-quantification/.

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IROS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Electric Vehicle Balancing for Mobility-on-Demand Systems under Demand and Supply Uncertainties

Sihong He
Lynn Pepin
Guang Wang 0001
Desheng Zhang 0002
Fei Miao

As electric vehicle (EV) technologies become mature, EV has been rapidly adopted in modern transportation systems, and is expected to provide future autonomous mobility-on-demand (AMoD) service with economic and societal benefits. However, EVs require frequent recharges due to their limited and unpredictable cruising ranges, and they have to be managed efficiently given the dynamic charging process. It is urgent and challenging to investigate a computationally efficient algorithm that provide EV AMoD system performance guarantees under model uncertainties, instead of using heuristic demand or charging models. To accomplish this goal, this work designs a data-driven distributionally robust optimization approach for vehicle supply-demand ratio and charging station utilization balancing, while minimizing the worst-case expected cost considering both passenger mobility demand uncertainties and EV supply uncertainties. We then derive an equivalent computationally tractable form for solving the distributionally robust problem in a computationally efficient way under ellipsoid uncertainty sets constructed from data. Based on E-taxi system data of Shenzhen city, we show that the average total balancing cost is reduced by 14. 49%, the average unfairness of supply-demand ratio and utilization is reduced by 15. 78% and 34. 51% respectively with the distributionally robust vehicle balancing method, compared with solutions which do not consider model uncertainties.

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