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Shubhankar Agarwal

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4 papers

2 author rows

TMLR Journal 2025 Journal Article

A Framework for Finding Local Saddle Points in Two-Player Zero-Sum Black-Box Games

Shubhankar Agarwal
Hamzah I Khan
Sandeep P. Chinchali
David Fridovich-Keil

Saddle point optimization is a critical problem employed in numerous real-world applications, including portfolio optimization, generative adversarial networks, and robotics. It has been extensively studied in cases where the objective function is known and differentiable. Existing work in black-box settings with unknown objectives that can only be sampled either assumes convexity-concavity in the objective to simplify the problem or operates with noisy gradient estimators. In contrast, we introduce a framework inspired by Bayesian optimization which utilizes Gaussian processes to model the unknown (potentially nonconvex-nonconcave) objective and requires only zeroth-order samples. Our approach frames the saddle point optimization problem as a two-level process which can flexibly leverage existing general-sum Nash game solvers to solve for saddle points of zero-sum games. The upper level of our framework produces a model of the objective function by sampling in promising locations, and the lower level of our framework uses the existing model to frame and solve a general-sum game to identify locations to sample. This lower level procedure can be designed in complementary ways, and we demonstrate the flexibility of our approach by introducing variants which appropriately trade off between factors like runtime, the cost of function evaluations, and the number of available initial samples. We experimentally demonstrate these algorithms on synthetic and realistic datasets in black-box nonconvex-nonconcave settings, showcasing their ability to efficiently locate local saddle points in these contexts.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Constrained Posterior Sampling: Time Series Generation with Hard Constraints

Sai Shankar Narasimhan
Shubhankar Agarwal
Litu Rout
Sanjay Shakkottai
Sandeep Chinchali

Generating realistic time series samples is crucial for stress-testing models and protecting user privacy by using synthetic data. In engineering and safety-critical applications, these samples must meet certain hard constraints that are domain-specific or naturally imposed by physics or nature. Consider, for example, generating electricity demand patterns with constraints on peak demand times. This can be used to stress-test the functioning of power grids during adverse weather conditions. Existing approaches for generating constrained time series are either not scalable or degrade sample quality. To address these challenges, we introduce Constrained Posterior Sampling (CPS), a diffusion-based sampling algorithm that aims to project the posterior mean estimate into the constraint set after each denoising update. Notably, CPS scales to a large number of constraints ($\sim100$) without requiring additional training. We provide theoretical justifications highlighting the impact of our projection step on sampling. Empirically, CPS outperforms state-of-the-art methods in sample quality and similarity to real time series by around 70\% and 22\%, respectively, on real-world stocks, traffic, and air quality datasets.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Time Weaver: A Conditional Time Series Generation Model

Sai Shankar Narasimhan
Shubhankar Agarwal
Oguzhan Akcin
Sujay Sanghavi
Sandeep Chinchali

Imagine generating a city’s electricity demand pattern based on weather, the presence of an electric vehicle, and location, which could be used for capacity planning during a winter freeze. Such real-world time series are often enriched with paired heterogeneous contextual metadata (e. g. , weather and location). Current approaches to time series generation often ignore this paired metadata. Additionally, the heterogeneity in metadata poses several practical challenges in adapting existing conditional generation approaches from the image, audio, and video domains to the time series domain. To address this gap, we introduce TIME WEAVER, a novel diffusion-based model that leverages the heterogeneous metadata in the form of categorical, continuous, and even time-variant variables to significantly improve time series generation. Additionally, we show that naive extensions of standard evaluation metrics from the image to the time series domain are insufficient. These metrics do not penalize conditional generation approaches for their poor specificity in reproducing the metadata-specific features in the generated time series. Thus, we innovate a novel evaluation metric that accurately captures the specificity of conditional generation and the realism of the generated time series. We show that TIME WEAVER outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs), by up to 30% in downstream classification tasks on real-world energy, medical, air quality, and traffic datasets.

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ICRA Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Robust Forecasting for Robotic Control: A Game-Theoretic Approach

Shubhankar Agarwal
David Fridovich-Keil
Sandeep Chinchali

Modern robots require accurate forecasts to make optimal decisions in the real world. For example, self-driving cars need an accurate forecast of other agents' future actions to plan safe trajectories. Current methods rely heavily on historical time series to accurately predict the future. However, relying entirely on the observed history is problematic since it could be corrupted by noise, have outliers, or not completely represent all possible outcomes. To solve this problem, we propose a novel framework for generating robust forecasts for robotic control. In order to model real-world factors affecting future forecasts, we introduce the notion of an adversary, which perturbs observed historical time series to increase a robot's ultimate control cost. Specifically, we model this interaction as a zero-sum two-player game between a robot's forecaster and this hypothetical adversary. We show that our proposed game may be solved to a local Nash equilibrium using gradient-based optimization techniques. Furthermore, we show that a forecaster trained with our method performs 30. 14% better on out-of-distribution real-world lane change data than baselines.

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