Author name cluster

Shota Yasui

Possible papers associated with this exact author name in Arrow. This page groups case-insensitive exact name matches and is not a full identity disambiguation profile.

8 papers

2 author rows

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Beyond the Average: Distributional Causal Inference under Imperfect Compliance

Undral Byambadalai
Tomu Hirata
Tatsushi Oka
Shota Yasui

We study the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments with imperfect compliance. When participants do not adhere to their assigned treatments, we leverage treatment assignment as an instrumental variable to identify the local distributional treatment effect—the difference in outcome distributions between treatment and control groups for the subpopulation of compliers. We propose a regression-adjusted estimator based on a distribution regression framework with Neyman-orthogonal moment conditions, enabling robustness and flexibility with high-dimensional covariates. Our approach accommodates continuous, discrete, and mixed discrete-continuous outcomes, and applies under a broad class of covariate-adaptive randomization schemes, including stratified block designs and simple random sampling. We derive the estimator’s asymptotic distribution and show that it achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. Simulation results demonstrate favorable finite-sample performance, and we demonstrate the method’s practical relevance in an application to the Oregon Health Insurance Experiment.

PDF Details

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

On Efficient Estimation of Distributional Treatment Effects under Covariate-Adaptive Randomization

Undral Byambadalai
Tomu Hirata
Tatsushi Oka
Shota Yasui

This paper focuses on the estimation of distributional treatment effects in randomized experiments that use covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR). These include designs such as Efron’s biased-coin design and stratified block randomization, where participants are first grouped into strata based on baseline covariates and assigned treatments within each stratum to ensure balance across groups. In practice, datasets often contain additional covariates beyond the strata indicators. We propose a flexible distribution regression framework that leverages off-the-shelf machine learning methods to incorporate these additional covariates, enhancing the precision of distributional treatment effect estimates. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator and introduce a valid inference procedure. Furthermore, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound for distributional treatment effects under CAR and demonstrate that our regression-adjusted estimator attains this bound. Simulation studies and analyses of real-world datasets highlight the practical advantages of our method.

Details

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Estimating Distributional Treatment Effects in Randomized Experiments: Machine Learning for Variance Reduction

Undral Byambadalai
Tatsushi Oka
Shota Yasui

We propose a novel regression adjustment method designed for estimating distributional treatment effect parameters in randomized experiments. Randomized experiments have been extensively used to estimate treatment effects in various scientific fields. However, to gain deeper insights, it is essential to estimate distributional treatment effects rather than relying solely on average effects. Our approach incorporates pre-treatment covariates into a distributional regression framework, utilizing machine learning techniques to improve the precision of distributional treatment effect estimators. The proposed approach can be readily implemented with off-the-shelf machine learning methods and remains valid as long as the nuisance components are reasonably well estimated. Also, we establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator and present a uniformly valid inference method. Through simulation results and real data analysis, we demonstrate the effectiveness of integrating machine learning techniques in reducing the variance of distributional treatment effect estimators in finite samples.

Details

ICLR Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Learning Causal Models from Conditional Moment Restrictions by Importance Weighting

Masahiro Kato
Masaaki Imaizumi
Kenichiro McAlinn
Shota Yasui
Haruo Kakehi

We consider learning causal relationships under conditional moment restrictions. Unlike causal inference under unconditional moment restrictions, conditional moment restrictions pose serious challenges for causal inference. To address this issue, we propose a method that transforms conditional moment restrictions to unconditional moment restrictions through importance weighting using a conditional density ratio estimator. Then, using this transformation, we propose a method that successfully estimate a parametric or nonparametric functions defined under the conditional moment restrictions. We analyze the estimation error and provide a bound on the structural function, providing theoretical support for our proposed method. In experiments, we confirm the soundness of our proposed method.

Details

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

The Adaptive Doubly Robust Estimator and a Paradox Concerning Logging Policy

Masahiro Kato
Kenichiro McAlinn
Shota Yasui

The doubly robust (DR) estimator, which consists of two nuisance parameters, the conditional mean outcome and the logging policy (the probability of choosing an action), is crucial in causal inference. This paper proposes a DR estimator for dependent samples obtained from adaptive experiments. To obtain an asymptotically normal semiparametric estimator from dependent samples without non-Donsker nuisance estimators, we propose adaptive-fitting as a variant of sample-splitting. We also report an empirical paradox that our proposed DR estimator tends to show better performances compared to other estimators utilizing the true logging policy. While a similar phenomenon is known for estimators with i. i. d. samples, traditional explanations based on asymptotic efficiency cannot elucidate our case with dependent samples. We confirm this hypothesis through simulation studies.

PDF Details

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Counterfactual Cross-Validation: Stable Model Selection Procedure for Causal Inference Models

Yuta Saito
Shota Yasui

We study the model selection problem in \emph{conditional average treatment effect} (CATE) prediction. Unlike previous works on this topic, we focus on preserving the rank order of the performance of candidate CATE predictors to enable accurate and stable model selection. To this end, we analyze the model performance ranking problem and formulate guidelines to obtain a better evaluation metric. We then propose a novel metric that can identify the ranking of the performance of CATE predictors with high confidence. Empirical evaluations demonstrate that our metric outperforms existing metrics in both model selection and hyperparameter tuning tasks.

Details

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning for External Validity under a Covariate Shift

Masatoshi Uehara
Masahiro Kato
Shota Yasui

We consider the evaluation and training of a new policy for the evaluation data by using the historical data obtained from a different policy. The goal of off-policy evaluation (OPE) is to estimate the expected reward of a new policy over the evaluation data, and that of off-policy learning (OPL) is to find a new policy that maximizes the expected reward over the evaluation data. Although the standard OPE and OPL assume the same distribution of covariate between the historical and evaluation data, there often exists a problem of a covariate shift, i. e. , the distribution of the covariate of the historical data is different from that of the evaluation data. In this paper, we derive the efficiency bound of OPE under a covariate shift. Then, we propose doubly robust and efficient estimators for OPE and OPL under a covariate shift by using an estimator of the density ratio between the distributions of the historical and evaluation data. We also discuss other possible estimators and compare their theoretical properties. Finally, we confirm the effectiveness of the proposed estimators through experiments.

PDF Details

AAAI Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Efficient Counterfactual Learning from Bandit Feedback

Yusuke Narita
Shota Yasui
Kohei Yata

What is the most statistically efficient way to do off-policy optimization with batch data from bandit feedback? For log data generated by contextual bandit algorithms, we consider offline estimators for the expected reward from a counterfactual policy. Our estimators are shown to have lowest variance in a wide class of estimators, achieving variance reduction relative to standard estimators. We then apply our estimators to improve advertisement design by a major advertisement company. Consistent with the theoretical result, our estimators allow us to improve on the existing bandit algorithm with more statistical confidence compared to a state-of-theart benchmark.

PDF Details