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Shashank Singh

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10 papers

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Spuriosity Didn’t Kill the Classifier: Using Invariant Predictions to Harness Spurious Features

Cian Eastwood
Shashank Singh
Andrei L Nicolicioiu
Marin Vlastelica Pogančić
Julius von Kügelgen
Bernhard Schölkopf

To avoid failures on out-of-distribution data, recent works have sought to extract features that have an invariant or stable relationship with the label across domains, discarding "spurious" or unstable features whose relationship with the label changes across domains. However, unstable features often carry complementary information that could boost performance if used correctly in the test domain. In this work, we show how this can be done without test-domain labels. In particular, we prove that pseudo-labels based on stable features provide sufficient guidance for doing so, provided that stable and unstable features are conditionally independent given the label. Based on this theoretical insight, we propose Stable Feature Boosting (SFB), an algorithm for: (i) learning a predictor that separates stable and conditionally-independent unstable features; and (ii) using the stable-feature predictions to adapt the unstable-feature predictions in the test domain. Theoretically, we prove that SFB can learn an asymptotically-optimal predictor without test-domain labels. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SFB on real and synthetic data.

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NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Optimal Binary Classification Beyond Accuracy

Shashank Singh
Justin T. Khim

The vast majority of statistical theory on binary classification characterizes performance in terms of accuracy. However, accuracy is known in many cases to poorly reflect the practical consequences of classification error, most famously in imbalanced binary classification, where data are dominated by samples from one of two classes. The first part of this paper derives a novel generalization of the Bayes-optimal classifier from accuracy to any performance metric computed from the confusion matrix. Specifically, this result (a) demonstrates that stochastic classifiers sometimes outperform the best possible deterministic classifier and (b) removes an empirically unverifiable absolute continuity assumption that is poorly understood but pervades existing results. We then demonstrate how to use this generalized Bayes classifier to obtain regret bounds in terms of the error of estimating regression functions under uniform loss. Finally, we use these results to develop some of the first finite-sample statistical guarantees specific to imbalanced binary classification. Specifically, we demonstrate that optimal classification performance depends on properties of class imbalance, such as a novel notion called Uniform Class Imbalance, that have not previously been formalized. We further illustrate these contributions numerically in the case of $k$-nearest neighbor classification.

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NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Probable Domain Generalization via Quantile Risk Minimization

Cian Eastwood
Alexander Robey
Shashank Singh
Julius von Kügelgen
Hamed Hassani
George J. Pappas
Bernhard Schölkopf

Domain generalization (DG) seeks predictors which perform well on unseen test distributions by leveraging data drawn from multiple related training distributions or domains. To achieve this, DG is commonly formulated as an average- or worst-case problem over the set of possible domains. However, predictors that perform well on average lack robustness while predictors that perform well in the worst case tend to be overly-conservative. To address this, we propose a new probabilistic framework for DG where the goal is to learn predictors that perform well with high probability. Our key idea is that distribution shifts seen during training should inform us of probable shifts at test time, which we realize by explicitly relating training and test domains as draws from the same underlying meta-distribution. To achieve probable DG, we propose a new optimization problem called Quantile Risk Minimization (QRM). By minimizing the $\alpha$-quantile of predictor's risk distribution over domains, QRM seeks predictors that perform well with probability $\alpha$. To solve QRM in practice, we propose the Empirical QRM (EQRM) algorithm and provide: (i) a generalization bound for EQRM; and (ii) the conditions under which EQRM recovers the causal predictor as $\alpha \to 1$. In our experiments, we introduce a more holistic quantile-focused evaluation protocol for DG, and demonstrate that EQRM outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on datasets from WILDS and DomainBed.

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NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Interpretable Sequence Learning for Covid-19 Forecasting

Sercan Arik
Chun-Liang Li
Jinsung Yoon
Rajarishi Sinha
Arkady Epshteyn
Long Le
Vikas Menon
Shashank Singh

We propose a novel approach that integrates machine learning into compartmental disease modeling (e. g. , SEIR) to predict the progression of COVID-19. Our model is explainable by design as it explicitly shows how different compartments evolve and it uses interpretable encoders to incorporate covariates and improve performance. Explainability is valuable to ensure that the model's forecasts are credible to epidemiologists and to instill confidence in end-users such as policy makers and healthcare institutions. Our model can be applied at different geographic resolutions, and we demonstrate it for states and counties in the United States. We show that our model provides more accurate forecasts compared to the alternatives, and that it provides qualitatively meaningful explanatory insights.

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NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Robust Density Estimation under Besov IPM Losses

Ananya Uppal
Shashank Singh
Barnabas Poczos

We study minimax convergence rates of nonparametric density estimation under the Huber contamination model, in which a ``contaminated'' proportion of the data comes from an unknown outlier distribution. We provide the first results for this problem under a large family of losses, called Besov integral probability metrics (IPMs), that include L^p, Wasserstein, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramer-von Mises, and other commonly used metrics. Under a range of smoothness assumptions on the population and outlier distributions, we show that a re-scaled thresholding wavelet estimator converges at the minimax optimal rate under a wide variety of losses and also exhibits optimal dependence on the contamination proportion. We also provide a purely data-dependent extension of the estimator that adapts to both an unknown contamination proportion and the unknown smoothness of the true density. Finally, based on connections shown recently between density estimation under IPM losses and generative adversarial networks (GANs), we show that certain GAN architectures are robustly minimax optimal.

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NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Nonparametric Density Estimation & Convergence Rates for GANs under Besov IPM Losses

Ananya Uppal
Shashank Singh
Barnabas Poczos

We study the problem of estimating a nonparametric probability distribution under a family of losses called Besov IPMs. This family is quite large, including, for example, L^p distances, total variation distance, and generalizations of both Wasserstein (earthmover's) and Kolmogorov-Smirnov distances. For a wide variety of settings, we provide both lower and upper bounds, identifying precisely how the choice of loss function and assumptions on the data distribution interact to determine the mini-max optimal convergence rate. We also show that, in many cases, linear distribution estimates, such as the empirical distribution or kernel density estimator, cannot converge at the optimal rate. These bounds generalize, unify, or improve on several recent and classical results. Moreover, IPMs can be used to formalize a statistical model of generative adversarial networks (GANs). Thus, we show how our results imply bounds on the statistical error of a GAN, showing, for example, that, in many cases, GANs can strictly outperform the best linear estimator.

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NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Nonparametric Density Estimation under Adversarial Losses

Shashank Singh
Ananya Uppal
Boyue Li
Chun-Liang Li
Manzil Zaheer
Barnabas Poczos

We study minimax convergence rates of nonparametric density estimation under a large class of loss functions called ``adversarial losses'', which, besides classical L^p losses, includes maximum mean discrepancy (MMD), Wasserstein distance, and total variation distance. These losses are closely related to the losses encoded by discriminator networks in generative adversarial networks (GANs). In a general framework, we study how the choice of loss and the assumed smoothness of the underlying density together determine the minimax rate. We also discuss implications for training GANs based on deep ReLU networks, and more general connections to learning implicit generative models in a minimax statistical sense.

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NeurIPS Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Efficient Nonparametric Smoothness Estimation

Shashank Singh
Simon Du
Barnabas Poczos

Sobolev quantities (norms, inner products, and distances) of probability density functions are important in the theory of nonparametric statistics, but have rarely been used in practice, partly due to a lack of practical estimators. They also include, as special cases, L^2 quantities which are used in many applications. We propose and analyze a family of estimators for Sobolev quantities of unknown probability density functions. We bound the finite-sample bias and variance of our estimators, finding that they are generally minimax rate-optimal. Our estimators are significantly more computationally tractable than previous estimators, and exhibit a statistical/computational trade-off allowing them to adapt to computational constraints. We also draw theoretical connections to recent work on fast two-sample testing and empirically validate our estimators on synthetic data.

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NeurIPS Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Finite-Sample Analysis of Fixed-k Nearest Neighbor Density Functional Estimators

Shashank Singh
Barnabas Poczos

We provide finite-sample analysis of a general framework for using k-nearest neighbor statistics to estimate functionals of a nonparametric continuous probability density, including entropies and divergences. Rather than plugging a consistent density estimate (which requires k → ∞ as the sample size n → ∞) into the functional of interest, the estimators we consider fix k and perform a bias correction. This can be more efficient computationally, and, as we show, statistically, leading to faster convergence rates. Our framework unifies several previous estimators, for most of which ours are the first finite sample guarantees.

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NeurIPS Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Exponential Concentration of a Density Functional Estimator

Shashank Singh
Barnabas Poczos

We analyse a plug-in estimator for a large class of integral functionals of one or more continuous probability densities. This class includes important families of entropy, divergence, mutual information, and their conditional versions. For densities on the d-dimensional unit cube [0, 1]^d that lie in a beta-Holder smoothness class, we prove our estimator converges at the rate O(n^(1/(beta+d))). Furthermore, we prove that the estimator obeys an exponential concentration inequality about its mean, whereas most previous related results have bounded only expected error of estimators. Finally, we demonstrate our bounds to the case of conditional Renyi mutual information.

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