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Sayantan Kumar

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AAAI Conference 2026 Conference Paper

Forecasting Clinical Risk from Textual Time Series: Structuring Narratives for Temporal AI in Healthcare

Shahriar Noroozizadeh
Sayantan Kumar
Jeremy C. Weiss

Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings—extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline—serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.

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AAAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Multimodal Variational Autoencoder: A Barycentric View

Peijie Qiu
Wenhui Zhu
Sayantan Kumar
Xiwen Chen
Jin Yang
Xiaotong Sun
Abolfazl Razi
Yalin Wang

Multiple signal modalities, such as vision and sounds, are naturally present in real-world phenomena. Recently, there has been growing interest in learning generative models, in particular variational autoencoder (VAE), to for multimodal representation learning especially in the case of missing modalities. The primary goal of these models is to learn a modality-invariant and modality-specific representation that characterizes information across multiple modalities. Previous attempts at multimodal VAEs approach this mainly through the lens of experts, aggregating unimodal inference distributions with a product of experts (PoE), a mixture of experts (MoE), or a combination of both. In this paper, we provide an alternative generic and theoretical formulation of multimodal VAE through the lens of barycenter. We first show that PoE and MoE are specific instances of barycenters, derived by minimizing the asymmetric weighted KL divergence to unimodal inference distributions. Our novel formulation extends these two barycenters to a more flexible choice by considering different types of divergences. In particular, we explore the Wasserstein barycenter defined by the 2-Wasserstein distance, which better preserves the geometry of unimodal distributions by capturing both modality-specific and modality-invariant representations compared to KL divergence. Empirical studies on three multimodal benchmarks demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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