EAAI Journal 2025 Journal Article
A framework for photovoltaic power forecasting based on hybrid data reconstruction, neural network models fusion, and multi-objective optimization
- Menggang Kou
- Jianzhou Wang
- Jingrui Li
- Runze Li
- Zhiwu Li
The intermittency of photovoltaic power seriously affects the safety and operation of the power grid. Accurate photovoltaic power forecasting is critical for a safe connection of large-scale solar energy to the grid. Despite the efforts of many researchers, current forecasting methodologies remain inadequate. To bridge this gap, leveraging the recent advancements in artificial intelligence algorithms, this work combines cutting-edge deep learning techniques and data preprocessing strategies to develop a forecasting system that comprehensively considers various influencing factors and integrates multiple deep learning neural networks. The framework enables deterministic forecasting and uncertainty analysis, providing reliable supporting information for accurate forecasting through hybrid decomposition data preprocessing and feature selection modules. Then, closed-form continuous-time (Cfc) neural networks are introduced as one of the core forecasting components. Theoretically, the validity of the combined model and the Pareto optimization process are proved. Practically, the multi-objective African vultures optimization (MoAvo) is employed to identify the Pareto optimal solution, integrate four models, and improve the model's adaptability to external environmental changes. The experimental results show that the average mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the designed combined system for 1–3 steps forecasting on the Yulara are 6. 09 %, 8. 15 %, and 10. 03 %, respectively. The results demonstrate that the framework fully considers the influence of candidate variables on forecasting, offering significant advantages over comparison models.