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Ronilo Ragodos

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3 papers

1 author row

AAAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

GeoPro-Net: Learning Interpretable Spatiotemporal Prediction Models Through Statistically-Guided Geo-Prototyping

Bang An
Xun Zhou
Zirui Zhou
Ronilo Ragodos
Zenglin Xu
Jun Luo

The problem of forecasting spatiotemporal events such as crimes and accidents is crucial to public safety and city management. Besides accuracy, interpretability is also a key requirement for spatiotemporal forecasting models to justify the decisions. Merely presenting predicted scores fails to convince the public and does not contribute to future urban planning. Interpretation of the spatiotemporal forecasting mechanism is, however, challenging due to the complexity of multi-source spatiotemporal features, the non-intuitive nature of spatiotemporal patterns for non-expert users, and the presence of spatial heterogeneity in the data. Currently, no existing deep learning model intrinsically interprets the complex predictive process learned from multi-source spatiotemporal features. To bridge the gap, we propose GeoPro-Net, an intrinsically interpretable spatiotemporal model for spatiotemporal event forecasting problems. GeoPro-Net introduces a novel Geo-concept convolution operation, which employs statistical tests to extract predictive patterns in the input as "Geo-concepts'', and condenses the "Geo-concept-encoded'' input through interpretable channel fusion and geographic-based pooling. In addition, GeoPro-Net learns different sets of prototypes of concepts inherently, and projects them to real-world cases for interpretation. Comprehensive experiments and case studies on four real-world datasets demonstrate that GeoPro-Net provides better interpretability while still achieving competitive prediction performance compared with state-of-the-art baselines.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

ProtoPairNet: Interpretable Regression through Prototypical Pair Reasoning

Rose Gurung
Ronilo Ragodos
Chiyu Ma
Tong Wang
Chaofan Chen

We present Prototypical Pair Network (ProtoPairNet), a novel interpretable architecture that combines deep learning with case-based reasoning to predict continuous targets. While prototype-based models have primarily addressed image classification with discrete outputs, extending these methods to continuous targets, such as regression, poses significant challenges. Existing architectures which rely heavily on one-to-one comparison with prototypes lack the directional information necessary for continuous predictions. Our method redefines the role of prototypes in such tasks by incorporating prototypical pairs into the reasoning process. Predictions are derived based on the input's relative dissimilarities to these pairs, leveraging an intuitive geometric interpretation. Our method further reduces the complexity of the reasoning process by relying on the single most relevant pair of prototypes, rather than all prototypes in the model as was done in prior works. Our model is versatile enough to be used in both vision-based regression and continuous control in reinforcement learning. Our experiments demonstrate that ProtoPairNet achieves performance on par with its black-box counterparts across these tasks. Comprehensive analyses confirm the meaningfulness of prototypical pairs and the faithfulness of our model’s interpretations, and extensive user studies highlight our model's improved interpretability over existing methods.

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NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

ProtoX: Explaining a Reinforcement Learning Agent via Prototyping

Ronilo Ragodos
Tong Wang
Qihang Lin
Xun Zhou

While deep reinforcement learning has proven to be successful in solving control tasks, the ``black-box'' nature of an agent has received increasing concerns. We propose a prototype-based post-hoc \emph{policy explainer}, ProtoX, that explains a black-box agent by prototyping the agent's behaviors into scenarios, each represented by a prototypical state. When learning prototypes, ProtoX considers both visual similarity and scenario similarity. The latter is unique to the reinforcement learning context since it explains why the same action is taken in visually different states. To teach ProtoX about visual similarity, we pre-train an encoder using contrastive learning via self-supervised learning to recognize states as similar if they occur close together in time and receive the same action from the black-box agent. We then add an isometry layer to allow ProtoX to adapt scenario similarity to the downstream task. ProtoX is trained via imitation learning using behavior cloning, and thus requires no access to the environment or agent. In addition to explanation fidelity, we design different prototype shaping terms in the objective function to encourage better interpretability. We conduct various experiments to test ProtoX. Results show that ProtoX achieved high fidelity to the original black-box agent while providing meaningful and understandable explanations.

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