Roman Garnett

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Idiographic Personality Gaussian Process for Psychological Assessment

• Yehu Chen
• Muchen Xi
• Jacob Montgomery
• Joshua Jackson
• Roman Garnett

We develop a novel measurement framework based on Gaussian process coregionalization model to address a long-lasting debate in psychometrics: whether psychological features like personality share a common structure across the population or vary uniquely for individuals. We propose idiographic personality Gaussian process (IPGP), an intermediate model that accommodates both shared trait structure across individuals and "idiographic" deviations. IPGP leverages the Gaussian process coregionalization model to conceptualize responses of grouped survey batteries but adjusted to non-Gaussian ordinal data, and exploits stochastic variational inference for latent factor estimation. Using both synthetic data and a novel survey, we show that IPGP improves both prediction of actual responses and estimation of intrapersonal response patterns compared to existing benchmarks. In the survey study, IPGP also identifies unique clusters of personality taxonomies, displaying great potential in advancing individualized approaches to psychological diagnosis.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

The Behavior and Convergence of Local Bayesian Optimization

• Kaiwen Wu
• Kyurae Kim
• Roman Garnett
• Jacob Gardner

A recent development in Bayesian optimization is the use of local optimization strategies, which can deliver strong empirical performance on high-dimensional problems compared to traditional global strategies. The "folk wisdom" in the literature is that the focus on local optimization sidesteps the curse of dimensionality; however, little is known concretely about the expected behavior or convergence of Bayesian local optimization routines. We first study the behavior of the local approach, and find that the statistics of individual local solutions of Gaussian process sample paths are surprisingly good compared to what we would expect to recover from global methods. We then present the first rigorous analysis of such a Bayesian local optimization algorithm recently proposed by Müller et al. (2021), and derive convergence rates in both the noisy and noiseless settings.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Local Bayesian optimization via maximizing probability of descent

• Quan Nguyen
• Kaiwen Wu
• Jacob Gardner
• Roman Garnett

Local optimization presents a promising approach to expensive, high-dimensional black-box optimization by sidestepping the need to globally explore the search space. For objective functions whose gradient cannot be evaluated directly, Bayesian optimization offers one solution -- we construct a probabilistic model of the objective, design a policy to learn about the gradient at the current location, and use the resulting information to navigate the objective landscape. Previous work has realized this scheme by minimizing the variance in the estimate of the gradient, then moving in the direction of the expected gradient. In this paper, we re-examine and refine this approach. We demonstrate that, surprisingly, the expected value of the gradient is not always the direction maximizing the probability of descent, and in fact, these directions may be nearly orthogonal. This observation then inspires an elegant optimization scheme seeking to maximize the probability of descent while moving in the direction of most-probable descent. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world objectives show that our method outperforms previous realizations of this optimization scheme and is competitive against other, significantly more complicated baselines.

ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Nonmyopic Multifidelity Acitve Search

• Quan Nguyen
• Arghavan Modiri
• Roman Garnett

Active search is a learning paradigm where we seek to identify as many members of a rare, valuable class as possible given a labeling budget. Previous work on active search has assumed access to a faithful (and expensive) oracle reporting experimental results. However, some settings offer access to cheaper surrogates such as computational simulation that may aid in the search. We propose a model of multifidelity active search, as well as a novel, computationally efficient policy for this setting that is motivated by state-of-the-art classical policies. Our policy is nonmyopic and budget aware, allowing for a dynamic tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. We evaluate the performance of our solution on real-world datasets and demonstrate significantly better performance than natural benchmarks.

AAAI Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Scarce Societal Resource Allocation and the Price of (Local) Justice

• Quan Nguyen
• Sanmay Das
• Roman Garnett

We consider the allocation of scarce societal resources, where a central authority decides which individuals receive which resources under capacity or budget constraints. Several algorithmic fairness criteria have been proposed to guide these procedures, each quantifying a notion of local justice to ensure the allocation is aligned with the principles of the local institution making the allocation. For example, the efficient allocation maximizes overall social welfare, whereas the leximin assignment seeks to help the “neediest first. ” Although the “price of fairness” (PoF) of leximin has been studied in prior work, we expand on these results by exploiting the structure inherent in real-world scenarios to provide tighter bounds. We further propose a novel criterion – which we term LoINC (leximin over individually normalized costs) – that maximizes a different but commonly used notion of local justice: prioritizing those benefiting the most from receiving the resources. We derive analogous PoF bounds for LoINC, showing that the price of LoINC is typically much lower than that of leximin. We provide extensive experimental results using both synthetic data and in a real-world setting considering the efficacy of different homelessness interventions. These results show that the empirical PoF tends to be substantially lower than worst-case bounds would imply and allow us to characterize situations where the price of LoINC fairness can be high.

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

BINOCULARS for efficient, nonmyopic sequential experimental design

• Shali Jiang 0001
• Henry Chai
• Javier González 0002
• Roman Garnett

Finite-horizon sequential experimental design (SED) arises naturally in many contexts, including hyperparameter tuning in machine learning among more traditional settings. Computing the optimal policy for such problems requires solving Bellman equations, which are generally intractable. Most existing work resorts to severely myopic approximations by limiting the decision horizon to only a single time-step, which can underweight exploration in favor of exploitation. We present BINOCULARS: Batch-Informed NOnmyopic Choices, Using Long-horizons for Adaptive, Rapid SED, a general framework for deriving efficient, nonmyopic approximations to the optimal experimental policy. Our key idea is simple and surprisingly effective: we first compute a one-step optimal batch of experiments, then select a single point from this batch to evaluate. We realize BINOCULARS for Bayesian optimization and Bayesian quadrature – two notable example problems with radically different objectives – and demonstrate that BINOCULARS significantly outperforms significantly outperforms myopic alternatives in real-world scenarios.

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Efficient Nonmyopic Bayesian Optimization via One-Shot Multi-Step Trees

• Shali Jiang
• Daniel Jiang
• Maximilian Balandat
• Brian Karrer
• Jacob Gardner
• Roman Garnett

Bayesian optimization is a sequential decision making framework for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. Computing a full lookahead policy amounts to solving a highly intractable stochastic dynamic program. Myopic approaches, such as expected improvement, are often adopted in practice, but they ignore the long-term impact of the immediate decision. Existing nonmyopic approaches are mostly heuristic and/or computationally expensive. In this paper, we provide the first efficient implementation of general multi-step lookahead Bayesian optimization, formulated as a sequence of nested optimization problems within a multi-step scenario tree. Instead of solving these problems in a nested way, we equivalently optimize all decision variables in the full tree jointly, in a "one-shot" fashion. Combining this with an efficient method for implementing multi-step Gaussian process "fantasization, " we demonstrate that multi-step expected improvement is computationally tractable and exhibits performance superior to existing methods on a wide range of benchmarks.

UAI Conference 2020 Conference Paper

GPIRT: A Gaussian Process Model for Item Response Theory

• JBrandon Duck-Mayr
• Roman Garnett
• Jacob M. Montgomery

The goal of item response theoretic (IRT) models is to provide estimates of latent traits from binary observed indicators and at the same time to learn the item response funcitons (IRFs) that map from latent trait to observed response. However, in many cases observed behavior can deviate significantly from the parametric assumptions of traditional IRT models. Nonparametric IRT (NIRT) models overcome these challenges by relaxing assumptions about the form of the IRFs, but standard tools are unable to simultaneously estimate flexible IRFs and recover ability estimates for respondents. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric model that solves this problem by placing Gaussian process priors on the latent functions defining the IRFs. This allows us to simultaneously relax assumptions about the shape of the IRFs while preserving the ability to estimate latent traits. This in turn allows us to easily extend the model to further tasks such as active learning. GPIRT therefore provides a simple and intuitive solution to several longstanding problems in the IRT literature.

ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Automated Model Selection with Bayesian Quadrature

• Henry Chai
• Jean-Francois Ton
• Michael A. Osborne
• Roman Garnett

We present a novel technique for tailoring Bayesian quadrature (BQ) to model selection. The state-of-the-art for comparing the evidence of multiple models relies on Monte Carlo methods, which converge slowly and are unreliable for computationally expensive models. Although previous research has shown that BQ offers sample efficiency superior to Monte Carlo in computing the evidence of an individual model, applying BQ directly to model comparison may waste computation producing an overly-accurate estimate for the evidence of a clearly poor model. We propose an automated and efficient algorithm for computing the most-relevant quantity for model selection: the posterior model probability. Our technique maximizes the mutual information between this quantity and observations of the models’ likelihoods, yielding efficient sample acquisition across disparate model spaces when likelihood observations are limited. Our method produces more-accurate posterior estimates using fewer likelihood evaluations than standard Bayesian quadrature and Monte Carlo estimators, as we demonstrate on synthetic and real-world examples.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Cost Effective Active Search

• Shali Jiang
• Roman Garnett
• Benjamin Moseley

We study a special paradigm of active learning, called cost effective active search, where the goal is to find a given number of positive points from a large unlabeled pool with minimum labeling cost. Most existing methods solve this problem heuristically, and few theoretical results have been established. We adopt a principled Bayesian approach for the first time. We first derive the Bayesian optimal policy and establish a strong hardness result: the optimal policy is hard to approximate, with the best-possible approximation ratio lower bounded by $\Omega(n^{0. 16})$. We then propose an efficient and nonmyopic policy using the negative Poisson binomial distribution. We propose simple and fast approximations for computing its expectation, which serves as an essential role in our proposed policy. We conduct comprehensive experiments on various domains such as drug and materials discovery, and demonstrate that our proposed search procedure is superior to the widely used greedy baseline.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

D-VAE: A Variational Autoencoder for Directed Acyclic Graphs

• Muhan Zhang
• Shali Jiang
• Zhicheng Cui
• Roman Garnett
• Yixin Chen

Graph structured data are abundant in the real world. Among different graph types, directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are of particular interest to machine learning researchers, as many machine learning models are realized as computations on DAGs, including neural networks and Bayesian networks. In this paper, we study deep generative models for DAGs, and propose a novel DAG variational autoencoder (D-VAE). To encode DAGs into the latent space, we leverage graph neural networks. We propose an asynchronous message passing scheme that allows encoding the computations on DAGs, rather than using existing simultaneous message passing schemes to encode local graph structures. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed DVAE through two tasks: neural architecture search and Bayesian network structure learning. Experiments show that our model not only generates novel and valid DAGs, but also produces a smooth latent space that facilitates searching for DAGs with better performance through Bayesian optimization.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Automating Bayesian optimization with Bayesian optimization

• Gustavo Malkomes
• Roman Garnett

Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for global optimization of expensive functions. One of its key components is the underlying probabilistic model used for the objective function f. In practice, however, it is often unclear how one should appropriately choose a model, especially when gathering data is expensive. In this work, we introduce a novel automated Bayesian optimization approach that dynamically selects promising models for explaining the observed data using Bayesian Optimization in the model space. Crucially, we account for the uncertainty in the choice of model; our method is capable of using multiple models to represent its current belief about f and subsequently using this information for decision making. We argue, and demonstrate empirically, that our approach automatically finds suitable models for the objective function, which ultimately results in more-efficient optimization.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Efficient nonmyopic batch active search

• Shali Jiang
• Gustavo Malkomes
• Matthew Abbott
• Benjamin Moseley
• Roman Garnett

Active search is a learning paradigm for actively identifying as many members of a given class as possible. A critical target scenario is high-throughput screening for scientific discovery, such as drug or materials discovery. In these settings, specialized instruments can often evaluate \emph{multiple} points simultaneously; however, all existing work on active search focuses on sequential acquisition. We bridge this gap, addressing batch active search from both the theoretical and practical perspective. We first derive the Bayesian optimal policy for this problem, then prove a lower bound on the performance gap between sequential and batch optimal policies: the ``cost of parallelization. '' We also propose novel, efficient batch policies inspired by state-of-the-art sequential policies, and develop an aggressive pruning technique that can dramatically speed up computation. We conduct thorough experiments on data from three application domains: a citation network, material science, and drug discovery, testing all proposed policies (14 total) with a wide range of batch sizes. Our results demonstrate that the empirical performance gap matches our theoretical bound, that nonmyopic policies usually significantly outperform myopic alternatives, and that diversity is an important consideration for batch policy design.

AAAI Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Active Search for Sparse Signals with Region Sensing

• Yifei Ma
• Roman Garnett
• Jeff Schneider

Autonomous systems can be used to search for sparse signals in a large space; e. g. , aerial robots can be deployed to localize threats, detect gas leaks, or respond to distress calls. Intuitively, search algorithms may increase efficiency by collecting aggregate measurements summarizing large contiguous regions. However, most existing search methods either ignore the possibility of such region observations (e. g. , Bayesian optimization and multi-armed bandits) or make strong assumptions about the sensing mechanism that allow each measurement to arbitrarily encode all signals in the entire environment (e. g. , compressive sensing). We propose an algorithm that actively collects data to search for sparse signals using only noisy measurements of the average values on rectangular regions (including single points), based on the greedy maximization of information gain. We analyze our algorithm in 1d and show that it requires Õ(n/μ2 +k2 ) measurements to recover all of k signal locations with small Bayes error, where μ and n are the signal strength and the size of the search space, respectively. We also show that active designs can be fundamentally more efficient than passive designs with region sensing, contrasting with the results of Arias-Castro, Candes, and Davenport (2013). We demonstrate the empirical performance of our algorithm on a search problem using satellite image data and in high dimensions.

AAAI Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Active Search in Intensionally Specified Structured Spaces

• Dino Oglic
• Roman Garnett
• Thomas Gaertner

We consider an active search problem in intensionally speci- fied structured spaces. The ultimate goal in this setting is to discover structures from structurally different partitions of a fixed but unknown target class. An example of such a process is that of computer-aided de novo drug design. In the past 20 years several Monte Carlo search heuristics have been developed for this process. Motivated by these hand-crafted search heuristics, we devise a Metropolis–Hastings sampling scheme where the acceptance probability is given by a probabilistic surrogate of the target property, modeled with a max entropy conditional model. The surrogate model is updated in each iteration upon the evaluation of a selected structure. The proposed approach is consistent and the empirical evidence indicates that it achieves a large structural variety of discovered targets.

AAMAS Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Cooperative Set Function Optimization Without Communication or Coordination

• Gustavo Malkomes
• Kefu Lu
• Blakeley Hoffman
• Roman Garnett
• Benjamin Moseley
• Richard Mann

We introduce a new model for cooperative agents that seek to optimize a common goal without communication or coordination. Given a universe of elements V, a set of agents, and a set function f, we ask each agent i to select a subset Si ⊂ V such that the size of Si is constrained (i. e. , |Si| < k). The goal is for the agents to cooperatively choose the sets Si to maximize the function evaluated at the union of these sets, ∪iSi; we seek max f(∪iSi). We assume the agents can neither communicate nor coordinate how they choose their sets. This model arises naturally in many real-world settings such as swarms of surveillance robots and colonies of foraging insects. Even for simple classes of set functions, there are strong lower bounds on the achievable performance of coordinating deterministic agents. We show, surprisingly, that for the fundamental class of submodular set functions, there exists a near-optimal distributed algorithm for this problem that does not require communication. We demonstrate that our algorithm performs nearly as well as recently published algorithms that allow full coordination.

ICML Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Efficient Nonmyopic Active Search

• Shali Jiang 0001
• Gustavo Malkomes
• Geoff Converse
• Alyssa Shofner
• Benjamin Moseley
• Roman Garnett

Active search is an active learning setting with the goal of identifying as many members of a given class as possible under a labeling budget. In this work, we first establish a theoretical hardness of active search, proving that no polynomial-time policy can achieve a constant factor approximation ratio with respect to the expected utility of the optimal policy. We also propose a novel, computationally efficient active search policy achieving exceptional performance on several real-world tasks. Our policy is nonmyopic, always considering the entire remaining search budget. It also automatically and dynamically balances exploration and exploitation consistent with the remaining budget, without relying on a parameter to control this tradeoff. We conduct experiments on diverse datasets from several domains: drug discovery, materials science, and a citation network. Our efficient nonmyopic policy recovers significantly more valuable points with the same budget than several alternatives from the literature, including myopic approximations to the optimal policy.

ICML Conference 2016 Conference Paper

BASC: Applying Bayesian Optimization to the Search for Global Minima on Potential Energy Surfaces

• Shane Carr
• Roman Garnett
• Cynthia Lo

We present a novel application of Bayesian optimization to the field of surface science: rapidly and accurately searching for the global minimum on potential energy surfaces. Controlling molecule-surface interactions is key for applications ranging from environmental catalysis to gas sensing. We present pragmatic techniques, including exploration/exploitation scheduling and a custom covariance kernel that encodes the properties of our objective function. Our method, the Bayesian Active Site Calculator (BASC), outperforms differential evolution and constrained minima hopping – two state-of-the-art approaches – in trial examples of carbon monoxide adsorption on a hematite substrate, both with and without a defect.

NeurIPS Conference 2016 Conference Paper

Bayesian optimization for automated model selection

• Gustavo Malkomes
• Charles Schaff
• Roman Garnett

Despite the success of kernel-based nonparametric methods, kernel selection still requires considerable expertise, and is often described as a “black art. ” We present a sophisticated method for automatically searching for an appropriate kernel from an infinite space of potential choices. Previous efforts in this direction have focused on traversing a kernel grammar, only examining the data via computation of marginal likelihood. Our proposed search method is based on Bayesian optimization in model space, where we reason about model evidence as a function to be maximized. We explicitly reason about the data distribution and how it induces similarity between potential model choices in terms of the explanations they can offer for observed data. In this light, we construct a novel kernel between models to explain a given dataset. Our method is capable of finding a model that explains a given dataset well without any human assistance, often with fewer computations of model evidence than previous approaches, a claim we demonstrate empirically.

NeurIPS Conference 2015 Conference Paper

Bayesian Active Model Selection with an Application to Automated Audiometry

• Jacob Gardner
• Gustavo Malkomes
• Roman Garnett
• Kilian Weinberger
• Dennis Barbour
• John Cunningham

We introduce a novel information-theoretic approach for active model selection and demonstrate its effectiveness in a real-world application. Although our method can work with arbitrary models, we focus on actively learning the appropriate structure for Gaussian process (GP) models with arbitrary observation likelihoods. We then apply this framework to rapid screening for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), a widespread and preventible disability, if diagnosed early. We construct a GP model for pure-tone audiometric responses of patients with NIHL. Using this and a previously published model for healthy responses, the proposed method is shown to be capable of diagnosing the presence or absence of NIHL with drastically fewer samples than existing approaches. Further, the method is extremely fast and enables the diagnosis to be performed in real time.

ICML Conference 2015 Conference Paper

Differentially Private Bayesian Optimization

• Matt J. Kusner
• Jacob R. Gardner
• Roman Garnett
• Kilian Q. Weinberger

Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for fine-tuning the hyper-parameters of a wide variety of machine learning models. The success of machine learning has led practitioners in diverse real-world settings to learn classifiers for practical problems. As machine learning becomes commonplace, Bayesian optimization becomes an attractive method for practitioners to automate the process of classifier hyper-parameter tuning. A key observation is that the data used for tuning models in these settings is often sensitive. Certain data such as genetic predisposition, personal email statistics, and car accident history, if not properly private, may be at risk of being inferred from Bayesian optimization outputs. To address this, we introduce methods for releasing the best hyper-parameters and classifier accuracy privately. Leveraging the strong theoretical guarantees of differential privacy and known Bayesian optimization convergence bounds, we prove that under a GP assumption these private quantities are often near-optimal. Finally, even if this assumption is not satisfied, we can use different smoothness guarantees to protect privacy.

ICML Conference 2015 Conference Paper

Finding Galaxies in the Shadows of Quasars with Gaussian Processes

• Roman Garnett
• Shirley Ho
• Jeff G. Schneider

We develop an automated technique for detecting damped Lyman-αabsorbers (DLAs) along spectroscopic sightlines to quasi-stellar objects (QSOs or quasars). The detection of DLAs in large-scale spectroscopic surveys such as SDSS–III is critical to address outstanding cosmological questions, such as the nature of galaxy formation. We use nearly 50000 QSO spectra to learn a tailored Gaussian process model for quasar emission spectra, which we apply to the DLA detection problem via Bayesian model selection. We demonstrate our method’s effectiveness with a large-scale validation experiment on over 100000 spectra, with excellent performance.

UAI Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Active Learning of Linear Embeddings for Gaussian Processes

• Roman Garnett
• Michael A. Osborne
• Philipp Hennig

We propose an active learning method for discovering low-dimensional structure in highdimensional Gaussian process (GP) tasks. Such problems are increasingly frequent and important, but have hitherto presented severe practical difficulties. We further introduce a novel technique for approximately marginalizing GP hyperparameters, yielding marginal predictions robust to hyperparameter misspecification. Our method offers an efficient means of performing GP regression, quadrature, or Bayesian optimization in high-dimensional spaces.

AAAI Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Power Iterated Color Refinement

• Kristian Kersting
• Martin Mladenov
• Roman Garnett
• Martin Grohe

Color refinement is a basic algorithmic routine for graph isomorphism testing and has recently been used for computing graph kernels as well as for lifting belief propagation and linear programming. So far, color refinement has been treated as a combinatorial problem. Instead, we treat it as a nonlinear continuous optimization problem and prove that it implements a conditional gradient optimizer that can be turned into graph clustering approaches using hashing and truncated power iterations. This shows that color refinement is easy to understand in terms of random walks, easy to implement (matrix-matrix/vector multiplications) and readily parallelizable. We support our theoretical results with experiments on real-world graphs with millions of edges.

NeurIPS Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Sampling for Inference in Probabilistic Models with Fast Bayesian Quadrature

• Tom Gunter
• Michael Osborne
• Roman Garnett
• Philipp Hennig
• Stephen Roberts

We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in probabilistic inference is numerical integration, to average over ensembles of models or unknown (hyper-)parameters (for example to compute marginal likelihood or a partition function). MCMC has provided approaches to numerical integration that deliver state-of-the-art inference, but can suffer from sample inefficiency and poor convergence diagnostics. Bayesian quadrature techniques offer a model-based solution to such problems, but their uptake has been hindered by prohibitive computation costs. We introduce a warped model for probabilistic integrands (likelihoods) that are known to be non-negative, permitting a cheap active learning scheme to optimally select sample locations. Our algorithm is demonstrated to offer faster convergence (in seconds) relative to simple Monte Carlo and annealed importance sampling on both synthetic and real-world examples.

NeurIPS Conference 2013 Conference Paper

Σ-Optimality for Active Learning on Gaussian Random Fields

• Yifei Ma
• Roman Garnett
• Jeff Schneider

A common classifier for unlabeled nodes on undirected graphs uses label propagation from the labeled nodes, equivalent to the harmonic predictor on Gaussian random fields (GRFs). For active learning on GRFs, the commonly used V-optimality criterion queries nodes that reduce the L2 (regression) loss. V-optimality satisfies a submodularity property showing that greedy reduction produces a (1 − 1/e) globally optimal solution. However, L2 loss may not characterise the true nature of 0/1 loss in classification problems and thus may not be the best choice for active learning. We consider a new criterion we call Σ-optimality, which queries the node that minimizes the sum of the elements in the predictive covariance. Σ-optimality directly optimizes the risk of the surveying problem, which is to determine the proportion of nodes belonging to one class. In this paper we extend submodularity guarantees from V-optimality to Σ-optimality using properties specific to GRFs. We further show that GRFs satisfy the suppressor-free condition in addition to the conditional independence inherited from Markov random fields. We test Σ-optimality on real-world graphs with both synthetic and real data and show that it outperforms V-optimality and other related methods on classification.

NeurIPS Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Active Learning of Model Evidence Using Bayesian Quadrature

• Michael Osborne
• Roman Garnett
• Zoubin Ghahramani
• David Duvenaud
• Stephen Roberts
• Carl Rasmussen

Numerical integration is an key component of many problems in scientific computing, statistical modelling, and machine learning. Bayesian Quadrature is a model-based method for numerical integration which, relative to standard Monte Carlo methods, offers increased sample efficiency and a more robust estimate of the uncertainty in the estimated integral. We propose a novel Bayesian Quadrature approach for numerical integration when the integrand is non-negative, such as the case of computing the marginal likelihood, predictive distribution, or normalising constant of a probabilistic model. Our approach approximately marginalises the quadrature model's hyperparameters in closed form, and introduces an active learning scheme to optimally select function evaluations, as opposed to using Monte Carlo samples. We demonstrate our method on both a number of synthetic benchmarks and a real scientific problem from astronomy.

ICML Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Bayesian Optimal Active Search and Surveying

• Roman Garnett
• Yamuna Krishnamurthy
• Xuehan Xiong
• Jeff G. Schneider
• Richard P. Mann

AAAI Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Prediction and Fault Detection of Environmental Signals with Uncharacterised Faults

• Michael Osborne
• Roman Garnett
• Kevin Swersky
• Nando de Freitas

Many signals of interest are corrupted by faults of an unknown type. We propose an approach that uses Gaussian processes and a general “fault bucket” to capture a priori uncharacterised faults, along with an approximate method for marginalising the potential faultiness of all observations. This gives rise to an efficient, flexible algorithm for the detection and automatic correction of faults. Our method is deployed in the domain of water monitoring and management, where it is able to solve several fault detection, correction, and prediction problems. The method works well despite the fact that the data is plagued with numerous difficulties, including missing observations, multiple discontinuities, nonlinearity and many unanticipated types of fault.

ICML Conference 2009 Conference Paper

Sequential Bayesian prediction in the presence of changepoints

• Roman Garnett
• Michael A. Osborne
• Stephen J. Roberts