AAMAS Conference 2026 Conference Paper
Modelling Customer Trajectories with Reinforcement Learning for Practical Retail Insights
- Ken Ming Lee
- Paul Barde
- Maxime C. Cohen
- Derek Nowrouzezahrai
Understanding customer movement within retail spaces is essential for optimizing store layouts. Real-world trajectory data can provide highly accurate insights, but collecting it is costly and often infeasible for many retailers. Heuristics such as Travelling Salesman Problem(TSP)andProbabilisticNearestNeighbours(PNN)arecommonly used as inexpensive approximations, but actual customer trajectories deviate by an average of 28% from shortest paths, highlighting a tradeoff between accuracy and practicality. We propose an agent-based modelling framework that casts customer trajectory predictionasamaximumentropyreinforcementlearning(RL)problem, balancing reward maximization with stochasticity to better reflect customers with bounded rationality. Using real-world trajectory data from a convenience store, we show that RL-generated trajectories align more closely with customer behaviour than TSP and PNN, providing more accurate estimates of impulse purchase rates and shelf traffic densities. Furthermore, only RL-based predictions yield repositioning decisions for impulse products that align withthosederivedfromactualtrajectorydata, resultingincomparable estimated profit gains. Our work demonstrates that RL provides a practical, behaviourally grounded alternative that bridges the gap between oversimplified heuristics and data-intensive approaches, making accurate layout optimization more accessible. To encourage further research, the source code is available on GitHub.