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Patrick Blöbaum

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9 papers

2 author rows

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Root Cause Analysis of Outliers with Missing Structural Knowledge

William Roy Orchard
Nastaran Okati
Sergio Garrido Mejia
Patrick Blöbaum
Dominik Janzing

The goal of Root Cause Analysis (RCA) is to explain why an anomaly occurred by identifying where the fault originated. Several recent works model the anomalous event as resulting from a change in the causal mechanism at the root cause, i. e. , as a soft intervention. RCA is then the task of identifying which causal mechanism changed. In real-world applications, one often has either few or only a single sample from the post-intervention distribution: a severe limitation for most methods, which assume one knows or can estimate the distribution. However, even those that do not are statistically ill-posed due to the need to probe regression models in regions of low probability density. In this paper, we propose simple, efficient methods to overcome both difficulties in the case where there is a single root cause and the causal graph is a polytree. When one knows the causal graph, we give guarantees for a traversal algorithm that requires only marginal anomaly scores and does not depend on specifying an arbitrary anomaly score cut-off. When one does not know the causal graph, we show that the heuristic of identifying root causes as the variables with the highest marginal anomaly scores is causally justified. To this end, we prove that anomalies with small scores are unlikely to cause those with larger scores in polytrees and give upper bounds for the likelihood of causal pathways with non-monotonic anomaly scores.

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AAAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Toward Falsifying Causal Graphs Using a Permutation-Based Test

Elias Eulig
Atalanti A. Mastakouri
Patrick Blöbaum
Michaela Hardt
Dominik Janzing

Understanding causal relationships among the variables of a system is paramount to explain and control its behavior. For many real-world systems, however, the true causal graph is not readily available and one must resort to predictions made by algorithms or domain experts. Therefore, metrics that quantitatively assess the goodness of a causal graph provide helpful checks before using it in downstream tasks. Existing metrics provide an absolute number of inconsistencies between the graph and the observed data, and without a baseline, practitioners are left to answer the hard question of how many such inconsistencies are acceptable or expected. Here, we propose a novel consistency metric by constructing a baseline through node permutations. By comparing the number of inconsistencies with those on the baseline, we derive an interpretable metric that captures whether the graph is significantly better than random. Evaluating on both simulated and real data sets from various domains, including biology and cloud monitoring, we demonstrate that the true graph is not falsified by our metric, whereas the wrong graphs given by a hypothetical user are likely to be falsified.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Causal vs. Anticausal merging of predictors

Sergio H. Mejia
Patrick Blöbaum
Bernhard Schölkopf
Dominik Janzing

We study the differences arising from merging predictors in the causal and anticausal directions using the same data. In particular we study the asymmetries that arise in a simple model where we merge the predictors using one binary variable as target and two continuous variables as predictors. We use Causal Maximum Entropy (CMAXENT) as inductive bias to merge the predictors, however, we expect similar differences to hold also when we use other merging methods that take into account asymmetries between cause and effect. We show that if we observe all bivariate distributions, the CMAXENT solution reduces to a logistic regression in the causal direction and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) in the anticausal direction. Furthermore, we study how the decision boundaries of these two solutions differ whenever we observe only some of the bivariate distributions implications for Out-Of-Variable (OOV) generalisation.

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JMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

DoWhy-GCM: An Extension of DoWhy for Causal Inference in Graphical Causal Models

Patrick Blöbaum
Peter Götz
Kailash Budhathoki
Atalanti A. Mastakouri
Dominik Janzing

We present DoWhy-GCM, an extension of the DoWhy Python library, which leverages graphical causal models. Unlike existing causality libraries, which mainly focus on effect estimation, DoWhy-GCM addresses diverse causal queries, such as identifying the root causes of outliers and distributional changes, attributing causal influences to the data generating process of each node, or diagnosis of causal structures. With DoWhy-GCM, users typically specify cause-effect relations via a causal graph, fit causal mechanisms, and pose causal queries---all with just a few lines of code. The general documentation is available at https://www.pywhy.org/dowhy and the DoWhy-GCM specific code at https://github.com/py-why/dowhy/tree/main/dowhy/gcm. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] [ code ] &copy JMLR 2024. ( edit, beta )

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TMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

Modeling Causal Mechanisms with Diffusion Models for Interventional and Counterfactual Queries

Patrick Chao
Patrick Blöbaum
Sapan Kirit Patel
Shiva Kasiviswanathan

We consider the problem of answering observational, interventional, and counterfactual queries in a causally sufficient setting where only observational data and the causal graph are available. Utilizing the recent developments in diffusion models, we introduce diffusion-based causal models (DCM) to learn causal mechanisms, that generate unique latent encodings. These encodings enable us to directly sample under interventions and perform abduction for counterfactuals. Diffusion models are a natural fit here, since they can encode each node to a latent representation that acts as a proxy for exogenous noise. Our empirical evaluations demonstrate significant improvements over existing state-of-the-art methods for answering causal queries. Furthermore, we provide theoretical results that offer a methodology for analyzing counterfactual estimation in general encoder-decoder models, which could be useful in settings beyond our proposed approach.

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ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Sequential Kernelized Independence Testing

Aleksandr Podkopaev
Patrick Blöbaum
Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan
Aaditya Ramdas

Independence testing is a classical statistical problem that has been extensively studied in the batch setting when one fixes the sample size before collecting data. However, practitioners often prefer procedures that adapt to the complexity of a problem at hand instead of setting sample size in advance. Ideally, such procedures should (a) stop earlier on easy tasks (and later on harder tasks), hence making better use of available resources, and (b) continuously monitor the data and efficiently incorporate statistical evidence after collecting new data, while controlling the false alarm rate. Classical batch tests are not tailored for streaming data: valid inference after data peeking requires correcting for multiple testing which results in low power. Following the principle of testing by betting, we design sequential kernelized independence tests that overcome such shortcomings. We exemplify our broad framework using bets inspired by kernelized dependence measures, e. g. , the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion. Our test is also valid under non-i. i. d. time-varying settings. We demonstrate the power of our approaches on both simulated and real data.

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ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Thompson Sampling with Diffusion Generative Prior

Yu-Guan Hsieh
Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan
Branislav Kveton
Patrick Blöbaum

In this work, we initiate the idea of using denoising diffusion models to learn priors for online decision making problems. We specifically focus on bandit meta-learning, aiming to learn a policy that performs well across bandit tasks of a same class. To this end, we train a diffusion model that learns the underlying task distribution and combine Thompson sampling with the learned prior to deal with new tasks at test time. Our posterior sampling algorithm carefully balances between the learned prior and the noisy observations that come from the learner’s interaction with the environment. To capture realistic bandit scenarios, we propose a novel diffusion model training procedure that trains from incomplete and noisy data, which could be of independent interest. Finally, our extensive experiments clearly demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach.

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ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Causal structure-based root cause analysis of outliers

Kailash Budhathoki
Lenon Minorics
Patrick Blöbaum
Dominik Janzing

Current techniques for explaining outliers cannot tell what caused the outliers. We present a formal method to identify "root causes" of outliers, amongst variables. The method requires a causal graph of the variables along with the functional causal model. It quantifies the contribution of each variable to the target outlier score, which explains to what extent each variable is a "root cause" of the target outlier. We study the empirical performance of the method through simulations and present a real-world case study identifying "root causes" of extreme river flows.

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ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

On Measuring Causal Contributions via do-interventions

Yonghan Jung
Shiva Prasad Kasiviswanathan
Jin Tian 0001
Dominik Janzing
Patrick Blöbaum
Elias Bareinboim

Causal contributions measure the strengths of different causes to a target quantity. Understanding causal contributions is important in empirical sciences and data-driven disciplines since it allows to answer practical queries like “what are the contributions of each cause to the effect? ” In this paper, we develop a principled method for quantifying causal contributions. First, we provide desiderata of properties axioms that causal contribution measures should satisfy and propose the do-Shapley values (inspired by do-interventions [Pearl, 2000]) as a unique method satisfying these properties. Next, we develop a criterion under which the do-Shapley values can be efficiently inferred from non-experimental data. Finally, we provide do-Shapley estimators exhibiting consistency, computational feasibility, and statistical robustness. Simulation results corroborate with the theory.

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