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Pan Deng

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4 papers

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AAAI Conference 2026 Conference Paper

Knowledge Graph Guided Heterogeneity-Informed Diffusion Model for Spatio-Temporal Generation

Zi'ang Wang
Lei Chen
Yuanchang Jin
Pan Deng
Shuangshuang Pang
Junting Liu
Yu Zhao

Spatio-temporal data generation aims to synthesize realistic urban data across graph nodes by learning spatial and temporal dependencies. This task plays a crucial role in urban planning by enabling the simulation of unobserved nodes. However, existing approaches face critical limitations that time series generation methods fail to generalize to unseen nodes, while spatio-temporal generative models are either restricted to the trajectory generation task or dependent on auxiliary data inputs. To bridge these gaps, we propose a Knowledge Graph Guided Heterogeneity-Informed Diffusion Model (KGDiff) in this paper through the following key innovations. First, we design a geometry-aware mixture of experts integrating Euclidean, hyperbolic, and hyperspherical representations to comprehensively encode urban structural knowledge. Next, we present a learnable meta spatio-temporal pattern module that normalizes node-specific heterogeneity before the generation process, and a conditional denoising process that progressively transforms random noise into realistic samples under structural guidance. Finally, extensive experiments across real-world urban datasets demonstrate that KGDiff achieves the state-of-art performance in generating realistic urban spatio-temporal data.

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AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Causal Conditional Hidden Markov Model for Multimodal Traffic Prediction

Yu Zhao
Pan Deng
Junting Liu
Xiaofeng Jia
Mulan Wang

Multimodal traffic flow can reflect the health of the transportation system, and its prediction is crucial to urban traffic management. Recent works overemphasize spatio-temporal correlations of traffic flow, ignoring the physical concepts that lead to the generation of observations and their causal relationship. Spatio-temporal correlations are considered unstable under the influence of different conditions, and spurious correlations may exist in observations. In this paper, we analyze the physical concepts affecting the generation of multimode traffic flow from the perspective of the observation generation principle and propose a Causal Conditional Hidden Markov Model (CCHMM) to predict multimodal traffic flow. In the latent variables inference stage, a posterior network disentangles the causal representations of the concepts of interest from conditional information and observations, and a causal propagation module mines their causal relationship. In the data generation stage, a prior network samples the causal latent variables from the prior distribution and feeds them into the generator to generate multimodal traffic flow. We use a mutually supervised training method for the prior and posterior to enhance the identifiability of the model. Experiments on real-world datasets show that CCHMM can effectively disentangle causal representations of concepts of interest and identify causality, and accurately predict multimodal traffic flow.

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AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Spatio-Temporal Neural Structural Causal Models for Bike Flow Prediction

Pan Deng
Yu Zhao
Junting Liu
Xiaofeng Jia
Mulan Wang

As a representative of public transportation, the fundamental issue of managing bike-sharing systems is bike flow prediction. Recent methods overemphasize the spatio-temporal correlations in the data, ignoring the effects of contextual conditions on the transportation system and the inter-regional time-varying causality. In addition, due to the disturbance of incomplete observations in the data, random contextual conditions lead to spurious correlations between data and features, making the prediction of the model ineffective in special scenarios. To overcome this issue, we propose a Spatio-temporal Neural Structure Causal Model(STNSCM) from the perspective of causality. First, we build a causal graph to describe the traffic prediction, and further analyze the causal relationship between the input data, contextual conditions, spatio-temporal states, and prediction results. Second, we propose to apply the frontdoor criterion to eliminate confounding biases in the feature extraction process. Finally, we propose a counterfactual representation reasoning module to extrapolate the spatio-temporal state under the factual scenario to future counterfactual scenarios to improve the prediction performance. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our model, especially its resistance to fluctuations caused by the external environment. The source code and data will be released.

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JBHI Journal 2022 Journal Article

Reinforcement Learning Based Diagnosis and Prediction for COVID-19 by Optimizing a Mixed Cost Function From CT Images

Siying Chen
Minghui Liu
Pan Deng
Jiali Deng
Yi Yuan
Xuan Cheng
Tianshu Xie
Libo Xie

A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a pandemic disease has caused 4 million deaths and more than 200 million infections worldwide (as of August 4, 2021). Rapid and accurate diagnosis of COVID-19 infection is critical to controlling the spread of the epidemic. In order to quickly and efficiently detect COVID-19 and reduce the threat of COVID-19 to human survival, we have firstly proposed a detection framework based on reinforcement learning for COVID-19 diagnosis, which constructs a mixed loss function that can integrate the advantages of multiple loss functions. This paper uses the accuracy of the validation set as the reward value, and obtains the initial model for the next epoch by searching the model corresponding to the maximum reward value in each epoch. We also have proposed a prediction framework that integrates multiple detection frameworks using parameter sharing to predict the progression of patients' disease without additional training. This paper also constructed a higher-quality version of the CT image dataset containing 247 cases screened by professional physicians, and obtained more excellent results on this dataset. Meanwhile, we used the other two COVID-19 datasets as external verifications, and still achieved a high accuracy rate without additional training. Finally, the experimental results show that our classification accuracy can reach 98. 31%, and the precision, sensitivity, specificity, and AUC (Area Under Curve) are 98. 82%, 97. 99%, 98. 67%, and 0. 989, respectively. The accuracy of external verification can reach 93. 34% and 91. 05%. What's more, the accuracy of our prediction framework is 91. 54%. A large number of experiments demonstrate that our proposed method is effective and robust for COVID-19 detection and prediction.

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