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Padhraic Smyth

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59 papers
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59

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Bayesian Inference for Correlated Human Experts and Classifiers

  • Markelle Kelly
  • Alex Boyd
  • Samuel Showalter
  • Mark Steyvers
  • Padhraic Smyth

Applications of machine learning often involve making predictions based on both model outputs and the opinions of human experts. In this context, we investigate the problem of querying experts for class label predictions, using as few human queries as possible, and leveraging the class probability estimates of pre-trained classifiers. We develop a general Bayesian framework for this problem, modeling expert correlation via a joint latent representation, enabling simulation-based inference about the utility of additional expert queries, as well as inference of posterior distributions over unobserved expert labels. We apply our approach to two real-world medical classification problems, as well as to CIFAR-10H and ImageNet-16H, demonstrating substantial reductions relative to baselines in the cost of querying human experts while maintaining high prediction accuracy.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Deep Continuous-Time State-Space Models for Marked Event Sequences

  • Yuxin Chang
  • Alex Boyd
  • Cao (Danica) Xiao
  • Taha Kass-Hout
  • Parminder Bhatia
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • andrew warrington

Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) model sequences of events occurring at irregular time intervals, with wide-ranging applications in fields such as healthcare, finance and social networks. We propose the state-space point process (S2P2) model, a novel and performant model that leverages techniques derived for modern deep state-space models (SSMs) to overcome limitations of existing MTPP models, while simultaneously imbuing strong inductive biases for continuous-time event sequences that other discrete sequence models (i. e. , RNNs, transformers) do not capture. Inspired by the classical linear Hawkes processes, we propose an architecture that interleaves stochastic jump differential equations with nonlinearities to create a highly expressive intensity-based MTPP model, without the need for restrictive parametric assumptions for the intensity. Our approach enables efficient training and inference with a parallel scan, bringing linear complexity and sublinear scaling while retaining expressivity to MTPPs. Empirically, S2P2 achieves state-of-the-art predictive likelihoods across eight real-world datasets, delivering an average improvement of 33% over the best existing approaches.

ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

ELBOing Stein: Variational Bayes with Stein Mixture Inference

  • Ola Rønning
  • Eric T. Nalisnick
  • Christophe Ley
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Thomas Hamelryck

Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) (Liu & Wang, 2016) performs approximate Bayesian inference by representing the posterior with a set of particles. However, SVGD suffers from variance collapse, i.e. poor predictions due to underestimating uncertainty (Ba et al., 2021), even for moderately-dimensional models such as small Bayesian neural networks (BNNs). To address this issue, we generalize SVGD by letting each particle parameterize a component distribution in a mixture model. Our method, Stein Mixture Inference (SMI), optimizes a lower bound to the evidence (ELBO) and introduces user-specified guides parameterized by particles. SMI extends the Nonlinear SVGD framework (Wang & Liu, 2019) to the case of variational Bayes. SMI effectively avoids variance collapse, judging by a previously described test developed for this purpose, and performs well on standard data sets. In addition, SMI requires considerably fewer particles than SVGD to accurately estimate uncertainty for small BNNs. The synergistic combination of NSVGD, ELBO optimization and user-specified guides establishes a promising approach towards variational Bayesian inference in the case of tall and wide data.

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Benchmark Data Repositories for Better Benchmarking

  • Rachel Longjohn
  • Markelle Kelly
  • Sameer Singh
  • Padhraic Smyth

In machine learning research, it is common to evaluate algorithms via their performance on standard benchmark datasets. While a growing body of work establishes guidelines for---and levies criticisms at---data and benchmarking practices in machine learning, comparatively less attention has been paid to the data repositories where these datasets are stored, documented, and shared. In this paper, we analyze the landscape of these benchmark data repositories and the role they can play in improving benchmarking. This role includes addressing issues with both datasets themselves (e. g. , representational harms, construct validity) and the manner in which evaluation is carried out using such datasets (e. g. , overemphasis on a few datasets and metrics, lack of reproducibility). To this end, we identify and discuss a set of considerations surrounding the design and use of benchmark data repositories, with a focus on improving benchmarking practices in machine learning.

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Dynamic Conditional Optimal Transport through Simulation-Free Flows

  • Gavin Kerrigan
  • Giosue Migliorini
  • Padhraic Smyth

We study the geometry of conditional optimal transport (COT) and prove a dynamic formulation which generalizes the Benamou-Brenier Theorem. Equipped with these tools, we propose a simulation-free flow-based method for conditional generative modeling. Our method couples an arbitrary source distribution to a specified target distribution through a triangular COT plan, and a conditional generative model is obtained by approximating the geodesic path of measures induced by this COT plan. Our theory and methods are applicable in infinite-dimensional settings, making them well suited for a wide class of Bayesian inverse problems. Empirically, we demonstrate that our method is competitive on several challenging conditional generation tasks, including an infinite-dimensional inverse problem.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Deep Anomaly Detection under Labeling Budget Constraints

  • Aodong Li
  • Chen Qiu 0001
  • Marius Kloft
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Stephan Mandt
  • Maja Rudolph

Selecting informative data points for expert feedback can significantly improve the performance of anomaly detection (AD) in various contexts, such as medical diagnostics or fraud detection. In this paper, we determine a set of theoretical conditions under which anomaly scores generalize from labeled queries to unlabeled data. Motivated by these results, we propose a data labeling strategy with optimal data coverage under labeling budget constraints. In addition, we propose a new learning framework for semi-supervised AD. Extensive experiments on image, tabular, and video data sets show that our approach results in state-of-the-art semi-supervised AD performance under labeling budget constraints.

UAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Inference for mark-censored temporal point processes

  • Alex Boyd
  • Yuxin Chang
  • Stephan Mandt
  • Padhraic Smyth

Marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) are a general class of stochastic models for modeling the evolution of events of different types (“marks”) in continuous time. These models have broad applications in areas such as medical data monitoring, financial prediction, user modeling, and communication networks. Of significant practical interest in such problems is the issue of missing or censored data over time. In this paper, we focus on the specific problem of inference for a trained MTPP model when events of certain types are not observed over a period of time during prediction. We introduce the concept of mark-censored sub-processes and use this framework to develop a novel marginalization technique for inference in the presence of censored marks. The approach is model-agnostic and applicable to any MTPP model with a well-defined intensity function. We illustrate the flexibility and utility of the method in the context of both parametric and neural MTPP models, with results across a range of datasets including data from simulated Hawkes processes, self-correcting processes, and multiple real-world event datasets.

AAAI Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Variable-Based Calibration for Machine Learning Classifiers

  • Markelle Kelly
  • Padhraic Smyth

The deployment of machine learning classifiers in high-stakes domains requires well-calibrated confidence scores for model predictions. In this paper we introduce the notion of variable-based calibration to characterize calibration properties of a model with respect to a variable of interest, generalizing traditional score-based metrics such as expected calibration error (ECE). In particular, we find that models with near-perfect ECE can exhibit significant miscalibration as a function of features of the data. We demonstrate this phenomenon both theoretically and in practice on multiple well-known datasets, and show that it can persist after the application of existing calibration methods. To mitigate this issue, we propose strategies for detection, visualization, and quantification of variable-based calibration error. We then examine the limitations of current score-based calibration methods and explore potential modifications. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings, emphasizing that an understanding of calibration beyond simple aggregate measures is crucial for endeavors such as fairness and model interpretability.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Zero-Shot Anomaly Detection via Batch Normalization

  • Aodong Li
  • Chen Qiu
  • Marius Kloft
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Maja Rudolph
  • Stephan Mandt

Anomaly detection (AD) plays a crucial role in many safety-critical application domains. The challenge of adapting an anomaly detector to drift in the normal data distribution, especially when no training data is available for the "new normal, " has led to the development of zero-shot AD techniques. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method called Adaptive Centered Representations (ACR) for zero-shot batch-level AD. Our approach trains off-the-shelf deep anomaly detectors (such as deep SVDD) to adapt to a set of inter-related training data distributions in combination with batch normalization, enabling automatic zero-shot generalization for unseen AD tasks. This simple recipe, batch normalization plus meta-training, is a highly effective and versatile tool. Our results demonstrate the first zero-shot AD results for tabular data and outperform existing methods in zero-shot anomaly detection and segmentation on image data from specialized domains.

ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Fair Generalized Linear Models with a Convex Penalty

  • Hyungrok Do
  • Preston Putzel
  • Axel S. Martin
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Judy Zhong

Despite recent advances in algorithmic fairness, methodologies for achieving fairness with generalized linear models (GLMs) have yet to be explored in general, despite GLMs being widely used in practice. In this paper we introduce two fairness criteria for GLMs based on equalizing expected outcomes or log-likelihoods. We prove that for GLMs both criteria can be achieved via a convex penalty term based solely on the linear components of the GLM, thus permitting efficient optimization. We also derive theoretical properties for the resulting fair GLM estimator. To empirically demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed fair GLM, we compare it with other well-known fair prediction methods on an extensive set of benchmark datasets for binary classification and regression. In addition, we demonstrate that the fair GLM can generate fair predictions for a range of response variables, other than binary and continuous outcomes.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Predictive Querying for Autoregressive Neural Sequence Models

  • Alex Boyd
  • Samuel Showalter
  • Stephan Mandt
  • Padhraic Smyth

In reasoning about sequential events it is natural to pose probabilistic queries such as “when will event A occur next” or “what is the probability of A occurring before B”, with applications in areas such as user modeling, language models, medicine, and finance. These types of queries are complex to answer compared to next-event prediction, particularly for neural autoregressive models such as recurrent neural networks and transformers. This is in part due to the fact that future querying involves marginalization over large path spaces, which is not straightforward to do efficiently in such models. In this paper we introduce a general typology for predictive queries in neural autoregressive sequence models and show that such queries can be systematically represented by sets of elementary building blocks. We leverage this typology to develop new query estimation methods based on beam search, importance sampling, and hybrids. Across four large-scale sequence datasets from different application domains, as well as for the GPT-2 language model, we demonstrate the ability to make query answering tractable for arbitrary queries in exponentially-large predictive path-spaces, and find clear differences in cost-accuracy tradeoffs between search and sampling methods.

AAAI Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Active Bayesian Assessment of Black-Box Classifiers

  • Disi Ji
  • Robert L. Logan
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Mark Steyvers

Recent advances in machine learning have led to increased deployment of black-box classifiers across a wide variety of applications. In many such situations there is a critical need to both reliably assess the performance of these pre-trained models and to perform this assessment in a label-efficient manner (given that labels may be scarce and costly to collect). In this paper, we introduce an active Bayesian approach for assessment of classifier performance to satisfy the desiderata of both reliability and label-efficiency. We begin by developing inference strategies to quantify uncertainty for common assessment metrics such as accuracy, misclassification cost, and calibration error. We then propose a general framework for active Bayesian assessment using inferred uncertainty to guide efficient selection of instances for labeling, enabling better performance assessment with fewer labels. We demonstrate significant gains from our proposed active Bayesian approach via a series of systematic empirical experiments assessing the performance of modern neural classifiers (e. g. , ResNet and BERT) on several standard image and text classification datasets.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Combining Human Predictions with Model Probabilities via Confusion Matrices and Calibration

  • Gavin Kerrigan
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Mark Steyvers

An increasingly common use case for machine learning models is augmenting the abilities of human decision makers. For classification tasks where neither the human nor model are perfectly accurate, a key step in obtaining high performance is combining their individual predictions in a manner that leverages their relative strengths. In this work, we develop a set of algorithms that combine the probabilistic output of a model with the class-level output of a human. We show theoretically that the accuracy of our combination model is driven not only by the individual human and model accuracies, but also by the model's confidence. Empirical results on image classification with CIFAR-10 and a subset of ImageNet demonstrate that such human-model combinations consistently have higher accuracies than the model or human alone, and that the parameters of the combination method can be estimated effectively with as few as ten labeled datapoints.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Detecting and Adapting to Irregular Distribution Shifts in Bayesian Online Learning

  • Aodong Li
  • Alex Boyd
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Stephan Mandt

We consider the problem of online learning in the presence of distribution shifts that occur at an unknown rate and of unknown intensity. We derive a new Bayesian online inference approach to simultaneously infer these distribution shifts and adapt the model to the detected changes by integrating ideas from change point detection, switching dynamical systems, and Bayesian online learning. Using a binary ‘change variable, ’ we construct an informative prior such that--if a change is detected--the model partially erases the information of past model updates by tempering to facilitate adaptation to the new data distribution. Furthermore, the approach uses beam search to track multiple change-point hypotheses and selects the most probable one in hindsight. Our proposed method is model-agnostic, applicable in both supervised and unsupervised learning settings, suitable for an environment of concept drifts or covariate drifts, and yields improvements over state-of-the-art Bayesian online learning approaches.

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Can I Trust My Fairness Metric? Assessing Fairness with Unlabeled Data and Bayesian Inference

  • Disi Ji
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Mark Steyvers

Group fairness is measured via parity of quantitative metrics across different protected demographic groups. In this paper, we investigate the problem of reliably assessing group fairness metrics when labeled examples are few but unlabeled examples are plentiful. We propose a general Bayesian framework that can augment labeled data with unlabeled data to produce more accurate and lower-variance estimates compared to methods based on labeled data alone. Our approach estimates calibrated scores (for unlabeled examples) of each group using a hierarchical latent variable model conditioned on labeled examples. This in turn allows for inference of posterior distributions for an array of group fairness metrics with a notion of uncertainty. We demonstrate that our approach leads to significant and consistent reductions in estimation error across multiple well-known fairness datasets, sensitive attributes, and predictive models. The results clearly show the benefits of using both unlabeled data and Bayesian inference in assessing whether a prediction model is fair or not.

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

User-Dependent Neural Sequence Models for Continuous-Time Event Data

  • Alex Boyd
  • Robert Bamler
  • Stephan Mandt
  • Padhraic Smyth

Continuous-time event data are common in applications such as individual behavior data, financial transactions, and medical health records. Modeling such data can be very challenging, in particular for applications with many different types of events, since it requires a model to predict the event types as well as the time of occurrence. Recurrent neural networks that parameterize time-varying intensity functions are the current state-of-the-art for predictive modeling with such data. These models typically assume that all event sequences come from the same data distribution. However, in many applications event sequences are generated by different sources, or users, and their characteristics can be very different. In this paper, we extend the broad class of neural marked point process models to mixtures of latent embeddings, where each mixture component models the characteristic traits of a given user. Our approach relies on augmenting these models with a latent variable that encodes user characteristics, represented by a mixture model over user behavior that is trained via amortized variational inference. We evaluate our methods on four large real-world datasets and demonstrate systematic improvements from our approach over existing work for a variety of predictive metrics such as log-likelihood, next event ranking, and source-of-sequence identification.

ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Dropout as a Structured Shrinkage Prior

  • Eric T. Nalisnick
  • José Miguel Hernández-Lobato
  • Padhraic Smyth

Dropout regularization of deep neural networks has been a mysterious yet effective tool to prevent overfitting. Explanations for its success range from the prevention of "co-adapted" weights to it being a form of cheap Bayesian inference. We propose a novel framework for understanding multiplicative noise in neural networks, considering continuous distributions as well as Bernoulli noise (i. e. dropout). We show that multiplicative noise induces structured shrinkage priors on a network’s weights. We derive the equivalence through reparametrization properties of scale mixtures and without invoking any approximations. Given the equivalence, we then show that dropout’s Monte Carlo training objective approximates marginal MAP estimation. We leverage these insights to propose a novel shrinkage framework for resnets, terming the prior ’automatic depth determination’ as it is the natural analog of automatic relevance determination for network depth. Lastly, we investigate two inference strategies that improve upon the aforementioned MAP approximation in regression benchmarks.

JBHI Journal 2017 Journal Article

Content Coding of Psychotherapy Transcripts Using Labeled Topic Models

  • Garren Gaut
  • Mark Steyvers
  • Zac E. Imel
  • David C. Atkins
  • Padhraic Smyth

Psychotherapy represents a broad class of medical interventions received by millions of patients each year. Unlike most medical treatments, its primary mechanisms are linguistic; i. e. , the treatment relies directly on a conversation between a patient and provider. However, the evaluation of patient-provider conversation suffers from critical shortcomings, including intensive labor requirements, coder error, nonstandardized coding systems, and inability to scale up to larger data sets. To overcome these shortcomings, psychotherapy analysis needs a reliable and scalable method for summarizing the content of treatment encounters. We used a publicly available psychotherapy corpus from Alexander Street press comprising a large collection of transcripts of patient-provider conversations to compare coding performance for two machine learning methods. We used the labeled latent Dirichlet allocation (L-LDA) model to learn associations between text and codes, to predict codes in psychotherapy sessions, and to localize specific passages of within-session text representative of a session code. We compared the L-LDA model to a baseline lasso regression model using predictive accuracy and model generalizability (measured by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) from the receiver operating characteristic curve). The L-LDA model outperforms the lasso logistic regression model at predicting session-level codes with average AUC scores of 0. 79, and 0. 70, respectively. For fine-grained level coding, L-LDA and logistic regression are able to identify specific talk-turns representative of symptom codes. However, model performance for talk-turn identification is not yet as reliable as human coders. We conclude that the L-LDA model has the potential to be an objective, scalable method for accurate automated coding of psychotherapy sessions that perform better than comparable discriminative methods at session-level coding and can also predict fine-grained codes.

UAI Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Learning Approximately Objective Priors

  • Eric T. Nalisnick
  • Padhraic Smyth

Informative Bayesian priors are often difficult to elicit, and when this is the case, modelers usually turn to noninformative or objective priors. However, objective priors such as the Jeffreys and reference priors are not tractable to derive for many models of interest. We address this issue by proposing techniques for learning reference prior approximations: we select a parametric family and optimize a black-box lower bound on the reference prior objective to find the member of the family that serves as a good approximation. We experimentally demonstrate the method’s effectiveness by recovering Jeffreys priors and learning the Variational Autoencoder’s reference prior.

UAI Conference 2014 Conference Paper

Annealing Paths for the Evaluation of Topic Models

  • James R. Foulds
  • Padhraic Smyth

Statistical topic models such as latent Dirichlet allocation have become enormously popular in the past decade, with dozens of learning algorithms and extensions being proposed each year. As these models and algorithms continue to be developed, it becomes increasingly important to evaluate them relative to previous techniques. However, evaluating the predictive performance of a topic model is a computationally difficult task. Annealed importance sampling (AIS), a Monte Carlo technique which operates by annealing between two distributions, has previously been successfully used for topic model evaluation (Wallach et al. , 2009b). This technique estimates the likelihood of a held-out document by simulating an annealing process from the prior to the posterior for the latent topic assignments, and using this simulation as an importance sampling proposal distribution. In this paper we introduce new AIS annealing paths which instead anneal from one topic model to another, thereby estimating the relative performance of the models. This strategy can exhibit much lower empirical variance than previous approaches, facilitating reliable per-documentcomparisons of topic models. We then show how to use these paths to evaluate the predictive performance of topic model learning algorithms by efficiently estimating the likelihood at each iteration of the training procedure. The proposed method achieves better held-out likelihood estimates for this task than previous algorithms with, in some cases, an order of magnitude less computation.

SODA Conference 2013 Conference Paper

Windows into Relational Events: Data Structures for Contiguous Subsequences of Edges

  • Michael J. Bannister
  • Christopher DuBois
  • David Eppstein
  • Padhraic Smyth

We consider the problem of analyzing social network data sets in which the edges of the network have timestamps, and we wish to analyze the subgraphs formed from edges in contiguous subintervals of these timestamps. We provide data structures for these problems that use near-linear preprocessing time, linear space, and sublogarithmic query time to handle queries that ask for the number of connected components, number of components that contain cycles, number of vertices whose degree equals or is at most some predetermined value, number of vertices that can be reached from a starting set of vertices by time-increasing paths, and related queries.

TIST Journal 2012 Journal Article

TopicNets

  • Brynjar Gretarsson
  • John O’Donovan
  • Svetlin Bostandjiev
  • Tobias Höllerer
  • Arthur Asuncion
  • David Newman
  • Padhraic Smyth

We present TopicNets, a Web-based system for visual and interactive analysis of large sets of documents using statistical topic models. A range of visualization types and control mechanisms to support knowledge discovery are presented. These include corpus- and document-specific views, iterative topic modeling, search, and visual filtering. Drill-down functionality is provided to allow analysts to visualize individual document sections and their relations within the global topic space. Analysts can search across a dataset through a set of expansion techniques on selected document and topic nodes. Furthermore, analysts can select relevant subsets of documents and perform real-time topic modeling on these subsets to interactively visualize topics at various levels of granularity, allowing for a better understanding of the documents. A discussion of the design and implementation choices for each visual analysis technique is presented. This is followed by a discussion of three diverse use cases in which TopicNets enables fast discovery of information that is otherwise hard to find. These include a corpus of 50,000 successful NSF grant proposals, 10,000 publications from a large research center, and single documents including a grant proposal and a PhD thesis.

NeurIPS Conference 2011 Conference Paper

Continuous-Time Regression Models for Longitudinal Networks

  • Duy Vu
  • David Hunter
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Arthur Asuncion

The development of statistical models for continuous-time longitudinal network data is of increasing interest in machine learning and social science. Leveraging ideas from survival and event history analysis, we introduce a continuous-time regression modeling framework for network event data that can incorporate both time-dependent network statistics and time-varying regression coefficients. We also develop an efficient inference scheme that allows our approach to scale to large networks. On synthetic and real-world data, empirical results demonstrate that the proposed inference approach can accurately estimate the coefficients of the regression model, which is useful for interpreting the evolution of the network; furthermore, the learned model has systematically better predictive performance compared to standard baseline methods.

NeurIPS Conference 2010 Conference Paper

Learning concept graphs from text with stick-breaking priors

  • America Chambers
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Mark Steyvers

We present a generative probabilistic model for learning general graph structures, which we term concept graphs, from text. Concept graphs provide a visual summary of the thematic content of a collection of documents-a task that is difficult to accomplish using only keyword search. The proposed model can learn different types of concept graph structures and is capable of utilizing partial prior knowledge about graph structure as well as labeled documents. We describe a generative model that is based on a stick-breaking process for graphs, and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo inference procedure. Experiments on simulated data show that the model can recover known graph structure when learning in both unsupervised and semi-supervised modes. We also show that the proposed model is competitive in terms of empirical log likelihood with existing structure-based topic models (such as hPAM and hLDA) on real-world text data sets. Finally, we illustrate the application of the model to the problem of updating Wikipedia category graphs.

JMLR Journal 2009 Journal Article

Distributed Algorithms for Topic Models

  • David Newman
  • Arthur Asuncion
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Max Welling

We describe distributed algorithms for two widely-used topic models, namely the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model, and the Hierarchical Dirichet Process (HDP) model. In our distributed algorithms the data is partitioned across separate processors and inference is done in a parallel, distributed fashion. We propose two distributed algorithms for LDA. The first algorithm is a straightforward mapping of LDA to a distributed processor setting. In this algorithm processors concurrently perform Gibbs sampling over local data followed by a global update of topic counts. The algorithm is simple to implement and can be viewed as an approximation to Gibbs-sampled LDA. The second version is a model that uses a hierarchical Bayesian extension of LDA to directly account for distributed data. This model has a theoretical guarantee of convergence but is more complex to implement than the first algorithm. Our distributed algorithm for HDP takes the straightforward mapping approach, and merges newly-created topics either by matching or by topic-id. Using five real-world text corpora we show that distributed learning works well in practice. For both LDA and HDP, we show that the converged test-data log probability for distributed learning is indistinguishable from that obtained with single-processor learning. Our extensive experimental results include learning topic models for two multi-million document collections using a 1024-processor parallel computer. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2009. ( edit, beta )

UAI Conference 2009 Conference Paper

On Smoothing and Inference for Topic Models

  • Arthur U. Asuncion
  • Max Welling
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Yee Whye Teh

Latent Dirichlet analysis, or topic modeling, is a flexible latent variable framework for modeling high-dimensional sparse count data. Various learning algorithms have been developed in recent years, including collapsed Gibbs sampling, variational inference, and maximum a posteriori estimation, and this variety motivates the need for careful empirical comparisons. In this paper, we highlight the close connections between these approaches. We find that the main differences are attributable to the amount of smoothing applied to the counts. When the hyperparameters are optimized, the differences in performance among the algorithms diminish significantly. The ability of these algorithms to achieve solutions of comparable accuracy gives us the freedom to select computationally efficient approaches. Using the insights gained from this comparative study, we show how accurate topic models can be learned in several seconds on text corpora with thousands of documents.

NeurIPS Conference 2009 Conference Paper

Particle-based Variational Inference for Continuous Systems

  • Andrew Frank
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Alexander Ihler

Since the development of loopy belief propagation, there has been considerable work on advancing the state of the art for approximate inference over distributions defined on discrete random variables. Improvements include guarantees of convergence, approximations that are provably more accurate, and bounds on the results of exact inference. However, extending these methods to continuous-valued systems has lagged behind. While several methods have been developed to use belief propagation on systems with continuous values, they have not as yet incorporated the recent advances for discrete variables. In this context we extend a recently proposed particle-based belief propagation algorithm to provide a general framework for adapting discrete message-passing algorithms to perform inference in continuous systems. The resulting algorithms behave similarly to their purely discrete counterparts, extending the benefits of these more advanced inference techniques to the continuous domain.

NeurIPS Conference 2008 Conference Paper

Asynchronous Distributed Learning of Topic Models

  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Max Welling
  • Arthur Asuncion

Distributed learning is a problem of fundamental interest in machine learning and cognitive science. In this paper, we present asynchronous distributed learning algorithms for two well-known unsupervised learning frameworks: Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes (HDP). In the proposed approach, the data are distributed across P processors, and processors independently perform Gibbs sampling on their local data and communicate their information in a local asynchronous manner with other processors. We demonstrate that our asynchronous algorithms are able to learn global topic models that are statistically as accurate as those learned by the standard LDA and HDP samplers, but with significant improvements in computation time and memory. We show speedup results on a 730-million-word text corpus using 32 processors, and we provide perplexity results for up to 1500 virtual processors. As a stepping stone in the development of asynchronous HDP, a parallel HDP sampler is also introduced.

NeurIPS Conference 2007 Conference Paper

Distributed Inference for Latent Dirichlet Allocation

  • David Newman
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Max Welling
  • Arthur Asuncion

 processors only sees We investigate the problem of learning a widely-used latent-variable model – the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) or “topic” model – using distributed compu- of the total data set. We pro- tation, where each of pose two distributed inference schemes that are motivated from different perspec- tives. The first scheme uses local Gibbs sampling on each processor with periodic updates—it is simple to implement and can be viewed as an approximation to a single processor implementation of Gibbs sampling. The second scheme re- lies on a hierarchical Bayesian extension of the standard LDA model to directly processors—it has a theo- account for the fact that data are distributed across retical guarantee of convergence but is more complex to implement than the ap- proximate method. Using five real-world text corpora we show that distributed learning works very well for LDA models, i. e. , perplexity and precision-recall scores for distributed learning are indistinguishable from those obtained with single-processor learning. Our extensive experimental results include large-scale distributed computation on 1000 virtual processors; and speedup experiments of learning topics in a 100-million word corpus using 16 processors.

NeurIPS Conference 2006 Conference Paper

Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes with Random Effects

  • Seyoung Kim
  • Padhraic Smyth

Data sets involving multiple groups with shared characteristics frequently arise in practice. In this paper we extend hierarchical Dirichlet processes to model such data. Each group is assumed to be generated from a template mixture model with group level variability in both the mixing proportions and the component parameters. Variabilities in mixing proportions across groups are handled using hierarchical Dirichlet processes, also allowing for automatic determination of the number of components. In addition, each group is allowed to have its own compo- nent parameters coming from a prior described by a template mixture model. This group-level variability in the component parameters is handled using a random effects model. We present a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algo- rithm to estimate model parameters and demonstrate the method by applying it to the problem of modeling spatial brain activation patterns across multiple images collected via functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI).

NeurIPS Conference 2006 Conference Paper

Learning Time-Intensity Profiles of Human Activity using Non-Parametric Bayesian Models

  • Alexander Ihler
  • Padhraic Smyth

Data sets that characterize human activity over time through collections of timestamped events or counts are of increasing interest in application areas as humancomputer interaction, video surveillance, and Web data analysis. We propose a non-parametric Bayesian framework for modeling collections of such data. In particular, we use a Dirichlet process framework for learning a set of intensity functions corresponding to different categories, which form a basis set for representing individual time-periods (e. g. , several days) depending on which categories the time-periods are assigned to. This allows the model to learn in a data-driven fashion what "factors" are generating the observations on a particular day, including (for example) weekday versus weekend effects or day-specific effects corresponding to unique (single-day) occurrences of unusual behavior, sharing information where appropriate to obtain improved estimates of the behavior associated with each category. Applications to realworld data sets of count data involving both vehicles and people are used to illustrate the technique.

NeurIPS Conference 2006 Conference Paper

Modeling General and Specific Aspects of Documents with a Probabilistic Topic Model

  • Chaitanya Chemudugunta
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Mark Steyvers

Techniques such as probabilistic topic models and latent-semantic indexing have been shown to be broadly useful at automatically extracting the topical or seman- tic content of documents, or more generally for dimension-reduction of sparse count data. These types of models and algorithms can be viewed as generating an abstraction from the words in a document to a lower-dimensional latent variable representation that captures what the document is generally about beyond the spe- cific words it contains. In this paper we propose a new probabilistic model that tempers this approach by representing each document as a combination of (a) a background distribution over common words, (b) a mixture distribution over gen- eral topics, and (c) a distribution over words that are treated as being specific to that document. We illustrate how this model can be used for information retrieval by matching documents both at a general topic level and at a specific word level, providing an advantage over techniques that only match documents at a general level (such as topic models or latent-sematic indexing) or that only match docu- ments at the specific word level (such as TF-IDF). 1 Introduction and Motivation Reducing high-dimensional data vectors to robust and interpretable lower-dimensional representa- tions has a long and successful history in data analysis, including recent innovations such as latent semantic indexing (LSI) (Deerwester et al, 1994) and latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) (Blei, Ng, and Jordan, 2003). These types of techniques have found broad application in modeling of sparse high-dimensional count data such as the “bag of words” representations for documents or transaction data for Web and retail applications. Approaches such as LSI and LDA have both been shown to be useful for “object matching” in their respective latent spaces. In information retrieval for example, both a query and a set of documents can be represented in the LSI or topic latent spaces, and the documents can be ranked in terms of how well they match the query based on distance or similarity in the latent space. The mapping to latent space represents a generalization or abstraction away from the sparse set of observed words, to a “higher-level” semantic representation in the latent space. These abstractions in principle lead to better generalization on new data compared to inferences carried out directly in the original sparse high-dimensional space. The capability of these models to provide improved generalization has been demonstrated empirically in a number of studies (e. g. , Deerwester et al 1994; Hofmann 1999; Canny 2004; Buntine et al, 2005). However, while this type of generalization is broadly useful in terms of inference and prediction, there are situations where one can over-generalize. Consider trying to match the following query to a historical archive of news articles: election + campaign + Camejo. The query is intended to find documents that are about US presidential campaigns and also about Peter Camejo (who ran as vice-presidential candidate alongside independent Ralph Nader in 2004). LSI and topic models are likely to highly rank articles that are related to presidential elections (even if they don’t necessarily contain the words election or campaign). However, a potential problem is that the documents that are highly ranked by LSI or topic models need not include any mention of the name Camejo. The reason is that the combination of words in this query is likely to activate one or more latent variables related to the concept of presidential campaigns. However, once this generalization is made the model has “lost” the information about the specific word Camejo and it will only show up in highly ranked documents if this word happens to frequently occur in these topics (unlikely in this case given that this candidate received relatively little media coverage compared to the coverage given to the candidates from the two main parties). But from the viewpoint of the original query, our preference would be to get documents that are about the general topic of US presidential elections with the specific constraint that they mention Peter Camejo. techniques, such as the widely-used term-frequency inverse-document- Word-based retrieval frequency (TF-IDF) method, have the opposite problem in general. They tend to be overly specific in terms of matching words in the query to documents. In general of course one would like to have a balance between generality and specificity. One ad hoc approach is to combine scores from a general method such as LSI with those from a more specific method such as TF-IDF in some manner, and indeed this technique has been proposed in information retrieval (Vogt and Cottrell, 1999). Similarly, in the ad hoc LDA approach (Wei and Croft, 2006), the LDA model is linearly combined with document-specific word distributions to capture both general as well as specific information in documents. However, neither method is entirely satisfactory since it is not clear how to trade-off generality and specificity in a principled way. The contribution of this paper is a new graphical model based on latent topics that handles the trade- off between generality and specificity in a fully probabilistic and automated manner. The model, which we call the special words with background (SWB) model, is an extension of the LDA model. The new model allows words in documents to be modeled as either originating from general topics, or from document-specific “special” word distributions, or from a corpus-wide background distribu- tion. The idea is that words in a document such as election and campaign are likely to come from a general topic on presidential elections, whereas a name such as Camejo is much more likely to be treated as “non-topical” and specific to that document. Words in queries are automatically inter- preted (in a probabilistic manner) as either being topical or special, in the context of each document, allowing for a data-driven document-specific trade-off between the benefits of topic-based abstrac- tion and specific word matching. Daum´e and Marcu (2006) independently proposed a probabilistic model using similar concepts for handling different training and test distributions in classification problems. Although we have focused primarily on documents in information retrieval in the discussion above, the model we propose can in principle be used on any large sparse matrix of count data. For example, transaction data sets where rows are individuals and columns correspond to items purchased or Web sites visited are ideally suited to this approach. The latent topics can capture broad patterns of population behavior and the “special word distributions” can capture the idiosyncracies of specific individuals. Section 2 reviews the basic principles of the LDA model and introduces the new SWB model. Sec- tion 3 illustrates how the model works in practice using examples from New York Times news articles. In Section 4 we describe a number of experiments with 4 different document sets, includ- ing perplexity experiments and information retrieval experiments, illustrating the trade-offs between generalization and specificity for different models. Section 5 contains a brief discussion and con- cluding comments. 2 A Topic Model for Special Words Figure 1(a) shows the graphical model for what we will refer to as the “standard topic model” or LDA. There are D documents and document d has Nd words. α and β are fixed parameters of symmetric Dirichlet priors for the D document-topic multinomials represented by θ and the T topic- word multinomials represented by φ. In the generative model, for each document d, the Nd words

JMLR Journal 2006 Journal Article

Segmental Hidden Markov Models with Random Effects for Waveform Modeling

  • Seyoung Kim
  • Padhraic Smyth

This paper proposes a general probabilistic framework for shape-based modeling and classification of waveform data. A segmental hidden Markov model (HMM) is used to characterize waveform shape and shape variation is captured by adding random effects to the segmental model. The resulting probabilistic framework provides a basis for learning of waveform models from data as well as parsing and recognition of new waveforms. Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithms are derived and investigated for fitting such models to data. In particular, the "expectation conditional maximization either" (ECME) algorithm is shown to provide significantly faster convergence than a standard EM procedure. Experimental results on two real-world data sets demonstrate that the proposed approach leads to improved accuracy in classification and segmentation when compared to alternatives such as Euclidean distance matching, dynamic time warping, and segmental HMMs without random effects. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2006. ( edit, beta )

UAI Conference 2004 Conference Paper

Conditional Chow-Liu Tree Structures for Modeling Discrete-Valued Vector Time Series

  • Sergey Kirshner
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Andrew Robertson

We consider the problem of modeling discrete-valued vector time series data using extensions of Chow-Liu tree models to capture both dependencies across time and dependencies across variables. Conditional Chow-Liu tree models are introduced, as an extension to standard Chow-Liu trees, for modeling conditional rather than joint densities. We describe learning algorithms for such models and show how they can be used to learn parsimonious representations for the output distributions in hidden Markov models. These models are applied to the important problem of simulating and forecasting daily precipitation occurrence for networks of rain stations. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the models, we compare their performance versus a number of alternatives using historical precipitation data from Southwestern Australia and the Western United States. We illustrate how the structure and parameters of the models can be used to provide an improved meteorological interpretation of such data.

NeurIPS Conference 2004 Conference Paper

Joint Probabilistic Curve Clustering and Alignment

  • Scott Gaffney
  • Padhraic Smyth

Clustering and prediction of sets of curves is an important problem in many areas of science and engineering. It is often the case that curves tend to be misaligned from each other in a continuous manner, either in space (across the measurements) or in time. We develop a probabilistic framework that allows for joint clustering and continuous alignment of sets of curves in curve space (as opposed to a fixed-dimensional feature- vector space). The proposed methodology integrates new probabilistic alignment models with model-based curve clustering algorithms. The probabilistic approach allows for the derivation of consistent EM learn- ing algorithms for the joint clustering-alignment problem. Experimental results are shown for alignment of human growth data, and joint cluster- ing and alignment of gene expression time-course data.

UAI Conference 2004 Conference Paper

Modeling Waveform Shapes with Random E ects Segmental Hidden Markov Models

  • Seyoung Kim
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Stefan Luther

In this paper we describe a general probabilistic framework for modeling waveforms such as heartbeats from ECG data. The model is based on segmental hidden Markov models (as used in speech recognition) with the addition of random effects to the generative model. The random effects component of the model handles shape variability across different waveforms within a general class of waveforms of similar shape. We show that this probabilistic model provides a unified framework for learning these models from sets of waveform data as well as parsing, classification, and prediction of new waveforms. We derive a computationally efficient EM algorithm to fit the model on multiple waveforms, and introduce a scoring method that evaluates a test waveform based on its shape. Results on two real-world data sets demonstrate that the random effects methodology leads to improved accuracy (compared to alternative approaches) on classification and segmentation of real-world waveforms.

NeurIPS Conference 2003 Conference Paper

Gene Expression Clustering with Functional Mixture Models

  • Darya Chudova
  • Christopher Hart
  • Eric Mjolsness
  • Padhraic Smyth

We propose a functional mixture model for simultaneous clustering and alignment of sets of curves measured on a discrete time grid. The model is specifically tailored to gene expression time course data. Each func- tional cluster center is a nonlinear combination of solutions of a simple linear differential equation that describes the change of individual mRNA levels when the synthesis and decay rates are constant. The mixture of continuous time parametric functional forms allows one to (a) account for the heterogeneity in the observed profiles, (b) align the profiles in time by estimating real-valued time shifts, (c) capture the synthesis and decay of mRNA in the course of an experiment, and (d) regularize noisy profiles by enforcing smoothness in the mean curves. We derive an EM algo- rithm for estimating the parameters of the model, and apply the proposed approach to the set of cycling genes in yeast. The experiments show consistent improvement in predictive power and within cluster variance compared to regular Gaussian mixtures.

NeurIPS Conference 2002 Conference Paper

Learning to Classify Galaxy Shapes Using the EM Algorithm

  • Sergey Kirshner
  • Igor Cadez
  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Chandrika Kamath

We describe the application of probabilistic model-based learning to the problem of automatically identifying classes of galaxies, based on both morphological and pixel intensity characteristics. The EM algorithm can be used to learn how to spatially orient a set of galaxies so that they are geometrically aligned. We augment this “ordering-model” with a mixture model on objects, and demonstrate how classes of galaxies can be learned in an unsupervised manner using a two-level EM algorithm. The resulting models provide highly accurate classi£cation of galaxies in cross-validation experiments. 1 Introduction and Background The £eld of astronomy is increasingly data-driven as new observing instruments permit the rapid collection of massive archives of sky image data. In this paper we investigate the problem of identifying bent-double radio galaxies in the FIRST (Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty-cm) Survey data set [1]. FIRST produces large numbers of radio images of the deep sky using the Very Large Array at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory. It is scheduled to cover more that 10, 000 square degrees of the northern and southern caps (skies). Of particular scienti£c interest to astronomers is the identi£cation and cataloging of sky objects with a “bent-double” morphology, indicating clusters of galaxies ([8], see Figure 1). Due to the very large number of observed deep-sky radio sources, (on the order of 106 so far) it is infeasible for the astronomers to label all of them manually. The data from the FIRST Survey (http: //sundog. stsci. edu/) is available in both raw image format and in the form of a catalog of features that have been automatically derived from the raw images by an image analysis program [8]. Each entry corresponds to a single detectable “blob” of bright intensity relative to the sky background: these entries are called Figure 1: 4 examples of radio-source galaxy images. The two on the left are labelled as “bent-doubles” and the two on the right are not. The con£gurations on the left have more “bend” and symmetry than the two non-bent-doubles on the right. components. The “blob” of intensities for each component is £tted with an ellipse. The ellipses and intensities for each component are described by a set of estimated features such as sky position of the centers (RA (right ascension) and Dec (declination)), peak density ¤ux and integrated ¤ux, root mean square noise in pixel intensities, lengths of the major and minor axes, and the position angle of the major axis of the ellipse counterclockwise from the north. The goal is to £nd sets of components that are spatially close and that resemble a bent-double. In the results in this paper we focus on candidate sets of components that have been detected by an existing spatial clustering algorithm [3] where each set consists of three components from the catalog (three ellipses). As of the year 2000, the catalog contained over 15, 000 three-component con£gurations and over 600, 000 con£gurations total. The set which we use to build and evaluate our models consists of a total of 128 examples of bent-double galaxies and 22 examples of non-bent-double con£gurations. A con£guration is labelled as a bent-double if two out of three astronomers agree to label it as such. Note that the visual identi£cation process is the bottleneck in the process since it requires signi£cant time and effort from the scientists, and is subjective and error-prone, motivating the creation of automated methods for identifying bent-doubles. Three-component bent-double con£gurations typically consist of a center or “core” com- ponent and two other side components called “lobes”. Previous work on automated classi£- cation of three-component candidate sets has focused on the use of decision-tree classi£ers using a variety of geometric and image intensity features [3]. One of the limitations of the decision-tree approach is its relative in¤exibility in handling uncertainty about the object being classi£ed, e. g. , the identi£cation of which of the three components should be treated as the core of a candidate object. A bigger limitation is the £xed size of the feature vec- tor. A primary motivation for the development of a probabilistic approach is to provide a framework that can handle uncertainties in a ¤exible coherent manner. 2 Learning to Match Orderings using the EM Algorithm We denote a three-component con£guration by C = (c 1; c2; c3), where the ci’s are the components (or “blobs”) described in the previous section. Each component cx is repre- sented as a feature vector, where the speci£c features will be de£ned later. Our approach focuses on building a probabilistic model for bent-doubles: p (C) = p (c1; c2; c3), the like- lihood of the observed ci under a bent-double model where we implicitly condition (for now) on the class “bent-double. ” By looking at examples of bent-double galaxies and by talking to the scientists study- ing them, we have been able to establish a number of potentially useful characteristics of the components, the primary one being geometric symmetry. In bent-doubles, two of the components will look close to being mirror images of one another with respect to a line through the third component. We will call mirror-image components lobe compo-

NeurIPS Conference 2001 Conference Paper

Bayesian Predictive Profiles With Applications to Retail Transaction Data

  • Igor Cadez
  • Padhraic Smyth

Massive transaction data sets are recorded in a routine manner in telecommunications, retail commerce, and Web site management. In this paper we address the problem of inferring predictive in- dividual proflles from such historical transaction data. We de- scribe a generative mixture model for count data and use an an approximate Bayesian estimation framework that efiectively com- bines an individual’s speciflc history with more general population patterns. We use a large real-world retail transaction data set to illustrate how these proflles consistently outperform non-mixture and non-Bayesian techniques in predicting customer behavior in out-of-sample data.

NeurIPS Conference 2000 Conference Paper

Model Complexity, Goodness of Fit and Diminishing Returns

  • Igor Cadez
  • Padhraic Smyth

We investigate a general characteristic of the trade-off in learning problems between goodness-of-fit and model complexity. Specifi(cid: 173) cally we characterize a general class of learning problems where the goodness-of-fit function can be shown to be convex within first(cid: 173) order as a function of model complexity. This general property of "diminishing returns" is illustrated on a number of real data sets and learning problems, including finite mixture modeling and multivariate linear regression. Introduction, Motivation, and Related Work 1 Assume we have a data set D = {Xl, X2, .. ., x n }, where the X i could be vectors, sequences, etc. We consider modeling the data set D using models indexed by a complexity index k, 1: :: ; k: :: ; kmax • For example, the models could be finite mixture probability density functions (PDFs) for vector Xi'S where model complexity is indexed by the number of components k in the mixture. Alternatively, the modeling task could be to fit a conditional regression model y = g(Zk) + e, where now y is one of the variables in the vector X and Z is some subset of size k of the remaining components in the X vector. Such learning tasks can typically be characterized by the existence of a model and a loss function. A fitted model of complexity k is a function of the data points D and depends on a specific set of fitted parameters B. The loss function (goodness(cid: 173) of-fit) is a functional of the model and maps each specific model to a scalar used to evaluate the model, e. g. , likelihood for density estimation or sum-of-squares for regression. Figure 1 illustrates a typical empirical curve for loss function versus complexity, for mixtures of Markov models fitted to a large data set of 900, 000 sequences. The complexity k is the number of Markov models being used in the mixture (see Cadez et al. (2000) for further details on the model and the data set). The empirical curve has a distinctly concave appearance, with large relative gains in fit for low complexity models and much more modest relative gains for high complexity models. A natural question is whether this concavity characteristic can be viewed as a general phenomenon in learning and under what assumptions on model classes and Nwnber of M Ixture Cmnponen1S 11] Figure 1: Log-likelihood scores for a Markov mixtures data set. loss functions the concavity can be shown to hold. The goal of this paper is to illustrate that in fact it is a natural characteristic for a broad range of problems in mixture modeling and linear regression. We note of course that for generalization that using goodness-of-fit alone will lead to the selection of the most complex model under consideration and will not in general select the model which generalizes best to new data. Nonetheless our pri(cid: 173) mary focus of interest in this paper is how goodness-of-fit loss functions (such as likelihood and squared error, defined on the training data D) behave in general as a function of model complexity k. Our concavity results have a number of interesting implications. For example, for model selection methods which add a penalty term to the goodness-of-fit (e. g. , BIC), the resulting score function as a function of model complexity will be unimodal as a function of complexity k within first order. Li and Barron (1999) have shown that for finite mixture models the expected value of the log-likelihood for any k is bounded below by a function of the form -C /k where C is a constant which is independent of k. The results presented here are complementary in the sense that we show that the actual maximizing log-likelihood itself is concave to first-order as a function of k. Furthermore, we obtain a more general principle of "diminishing returns, " including both finite mixtures and subset selection in regression.

NeurIPS Conference 1997 Conference Paper

Stacked Density Estimation

  • Padhraic Smyth
  • David Wolpert

In this paper, the technique of stacking, previously only used for supervised learning, is applied to unsupervised learning. Specifi(cid: 173) cally, it is used for non-parametric multivariate density estimation, to combine finite mixture model and kernel density estimators. Ex(cid: 173) perimental results on both simulated data and real world data sets clearly demonstrate that stacked density estimation outperforms other strategies such as choosing the single best model based on cross-validation, combining with uniform weights, and even the sin(cid: 173) gle best model chosen by "cheating" by looking at the data used for independent testing.

NeurIPS Conference 1996 Conference Paper

Clustering Sequences with Hidden Markov Models

  • Padhraic Smyth

This paper discusses a probabilistic model-based approach to clus(cid: 173) tering sequences, using hidden Markov models (HMMs). The prob(cid: 173) lem can be framed as a generalization of the standard mixture model approach to clustering in feature space. Two primary issues are addressed. First, a novel parameter initialization procedure is proposed, and second, the more difficult problem of determining the number of clusters K, from the data, is investigated. Experi(cid: 173) mental results indicate that the proposed techniques are useful for revealing hidden cluster structure in data sets of sequences.

NeurIPS Conference 1994 Conference Paper

Inferring Ground Truth from Subjective Labelling of Venus Images

  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Usama Fayyad
  • Michael Burl
  • Pietro Perona
  • Pierre Baldi

In remote sensing applications "ground-truth" data is often used as the basis for training pattern recognition algorithms to gener(cid: 173) ate thematic maps or to detect objects of interest. In practical situations, experts may visually examine the images and provide a subjective noisy estimate of the truth. Calibrating the reliability and bias of expert labellers is a non-trivial problem. In this paper we discuss some of our recent work on this topic in the context of detecting small volcanoes in Magellan SAR images of Venus. Empirical results (using the Expectation-Maximization procedure) suggest that accounting for subjective noise can be quite signifi(cid: 173) cant in terms of quantifying both human and algorithm detection performance.

NeurIPS Conference 1993 Conference Paper

Probabilistic Anomaly Detection in Dynamic Systems

  • Padhraic Smyth

This paper describes probabilistic methods for novelty detection when using pattern recognition methods for fault monitoring of dynamic systems. The problem of novelty detection is particular(cid: 173) ly acute when prior knowledge and training data only allow one to construct an incomplete classification model. Allowance must be made in model design so that the classifier will be robust to data generated by classes not included in the training phase. For diagnosis applications one practical approach is to construct both an input density model and a discriminative class model. Using Bayes' rule and prior estimates of the relative likelihood of data of known and unknown origin the resulting classification equations are straightforward. The paper describes the application of this method in the context of hidden Markov models for online fault monitoring of large ground antennas for spacecraft tracking, with particular application to the detection of transient behaviour of unknown origin. 1 PROBLEM BACKGROUND Conventional control-theoretic models for fault detection typically rely on an accu(cid: 173) rate model ofthe plant being monitored (Patton, Frank, and Clark, 1989). However, in practice it common that no such model exists for complex non-linear systems. The large ground antennas used by JPL's Deep Space Network (DSN) to track

NeurIPS Conference 1991 Conference Paper

Fault Diagnosis of Antenna Pointing Systems using Hybrid Neural Network and Signal Processing Models

  • Padhraic Smyth
  • Jeff Mellstrom

We describe in this paper a novel application of neural networks to system health monitoring of a large antenna for deep space communications. The paper outlines our approach to building a monitoring system using hybrid signal processing and neural network techniques, including autoregressive modelling, pattern recognition, and Hidden Markov models. We discuss several problems which are somewhat generic in applications of this kind - in particular we address the problem of detecting classes which were not present in the training data. Experimental results indicate that the proposed system is sufficiently reliable for practical implementation. 1 Background: The Deep Space Network The Deep Space Network (DSN) (designed and operated by the Jet Propulsion Lab(cid: 173) oratory (JPL) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)) is unique in terms of providing end-to-end telecommunication capabilities between earth and various interplanetary spacecraft throughout the solar system. The ground component of the DSN consists of three ground station complexes located in California, Spain and Australia, giving full 24-hour coverage for deep space com(cid: 173) munications. Since spacecraft are always severely limited in terms of available transmitter power (for example, each of the Voyager spacecraft only use 20 watts to transmit signals back to earth), all subsystems of the end-to-end communica(cid: 173) tions link (radio telemetry, coding, receivers, amplifiers) tend to be pushed to the 667 668 Smyth and Mellstrom absolute limits of performance. The large steerable ground antennas (70m and 34m dishes) represent critical potential single points of failure in the network. In partic(cid: 173) ular there is only a single 70m antenna at each complex because of the large cost and calibration effort involved in constructing and operating a steerable antenna of that size - the entire structure (including pedestal support) weighs over 8, 000 tons. The antenna pointing systems consist of azimuth and elevation axes drives which respond to computer-generated trajectory commands to steer the antenna in real(cid: 173) time. Pointing accuracy requirements for the antenna are such that there is little tolerance for component degradation. Achieving the necessary degree of positional accuracy is rendered difficult by various non-linearities in the gear and motor ele(cid: 173) ments and environmental disturbances such as gusts of wind affecting the antenna dish structure. Off-beam pointing can result in rapid fall-off in signal-to-noise ratios and consequent potential loss of irrecoverable scientific data from the spacecraft. The pointing systems are a complex mix of electro-mechanical and hydraulic com(cid: 173) ponents. A faulty component will manifest itself indirectly via a change in the char(cid: 173) acteristics of observed sensor readings in the pointing control loop. Because of the non-linearity and feedback present, direct causal relationships between fault condi(cid: 173) this makes manual fault tions and observed symptoms can be difficult to establish - diagnosis a slow and expensive process. In addition, if a pointing problem occurs while a spacecraft is being tracked, the antenna is often shut-down to prevent any potential damage to the structure, and the track is transferred to another antenna if possible. Hence, at present, diagnosis often occurs after the fact, where the orig(cid: 173) inal fault conditions may be difficult to replicate. An obvious strategy is to design an on-line automated monitoring system. Conventional control-theoretic models for fault detection are impractical due to the difficulties in constructing accurate an alternative is to learn the symptom-fault models for such a non-linear system - mapping directly from training data, the approach we follow here. 2 Fault Classification over Time 2. 1 Data Collection and Feature Extraction The observable data consists of various sensor readings (in the form of sampled time series) which can be monitored while the antenna is in tracking mode. The approach we take is to estimate the state of the system at discrete intervals in time. A feature vector ~ of dimension k is estimated from sets of successive windows of sensor data. A pattern recognition component then models the instantaneous estimate of the posterior class probability given the features, p(wd~), 1: :: ; i: :: ; m. Finally, a hidden Markov model is used to take advantage of temporal context and estimate class probabilities conditioned on recent past history. This hierarchical pattern of information flow, where the time series data is transformed and mapped into a categorical representation (the fault classes) and integrated over time to enable robust decision-making, is quite generic to systems which must passively sense and monitor their environment in real-time. Experimental data was gathered from a new antenna at a research ground-station at the Goldstone DSN complex in California. We introduced hardware faults in a Fault Diagnosis of Antenna Pointing Systems 669 controlled manner by switching faulty components in and out of the control loop. Obtaining data in this manner is an expensive and time-consuming procedure since the antenna is not currently instrumented for sensor data acquisition and is located in a remote location of the Mojave Desert in Southern California. Sensor variables monitored included wind speed, motor currents, tachometer voltages, estimated antenna position, and so forth, under three separate fault conditions (plus normal conditions). The time series data was segmented into windows of 4 seconds duration (200 sam(cid: 173) pies) to allow reasonably accurate estimates of the various features. The features consisted of order statistics (such as the range) and moments (such as the vari(cid: 173) ance) of particular sensor channels. In addition we also applied an autoregressive(cid: 173) exogenous (ARX) modelling technique to the motor current data, where the ARX coefficients are estimated on each individual 4-second window of data. The autore(cid: 173) gressive representation is particularly useful for discriminative purposes (Eggers and Khuon, 1990). 2. 2 State Estimation with a Hidden Markov Model If one applies a simple feed-forward network model to estimate the class probabilities at each discrete time instant t, the fact that faults are typically correlated over time is ignored. Rather than modelling the temporal dependence of features, p(. f. (t)I. f. (t- 1), .. ., .f. (0)), a simpler approach is to model temporal dependence via the class variable using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The m classes comprise the Markov model states. Components of the Markov transition matrix A (of dimension m x m) are specified subjectively rather than estimated from the data, since there is no reliable database of fault-transition information available at the component level from which to estimate these numbers. The hidden component of the HMM model arises from the fact that one cannot observe the states directly, but only indirectly via a stochastic mapping from states to symptoms (the features). For the results reported in this paper, the state probability estimates at time t are calculated using all the information available up to that point in time. The probability state vector is denoted by p(s(t)). The probability estimate of state i at time t can be calculated recursively via the standard HMM equations:

NeurIPS Conference 1990 Conference Paper

On Stochastic Complexity and Admissible Models for Neural Network Classifiers

  • Padhraic Smyth

Given some training data how should we choose a particular network clas(cid: 173) sifier from a family of networks of different complexities? In this paper we discuss how the application of stochastic complexity theory to classifier design problems can provide some insights into this problem. In particular we introduce the notion of admissible models whereby the complexity of models under consideration is affected by (among other factors) the class entropy, the amount of training data, and our prior belief. In particular we discuss the implications of these results with respect to neural architec(cid: 173) tures and demonstrate the approach on real data from a medical diagnosis task. 1 Introduction and Motivation In this paper we examine in a general sense the application of Minimum Description Length (MDL) techniques to the problem of selecting a good classifier from a large set of candidate models or hypotheses. Pattern recognition algorithms differ from more conventional statistical modeling techniques in the sense that they typically choose from a very large number of candidate models to describe the available data. Hence, the problem of searching through this set of candidate models is frequently a formidable one, often approached in practice by the use of greedy algorithms. In this context, techniques which allow us to eliminate portions of the hypothesis space are of considerable interest. We will show in this paper that it is possible to use the intrinsic structure of the MDL formalism to eliminate large numbers of candidate models given only minimal information about the data. Our results depend on the

NeurIPS Conference 1988 Conference Paper

An Information Theoretic Approach to Rule-Based Connectionist Expert Systems

  • Rodney Goodman
  • John Miller
  • Padhraic Smyth

We discuss in this paper architectures for executing probabilistic rule-bases in a par(cid: 173) allel manner, using as a theoretical basis recently introduced information-theoretic models. We will begin by describing our (non-neural) learning algorithm and theory of quantitative rule modelling, followed by a discussion on the exact nature of two particular models. Finally we work through an example of our approach, going from database to rules to inference network, and compare the network's performance with the theoretical limits for specific problems.

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