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Nathan Kallus

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55 papers
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55

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

$Q\sharp$: Provably Optimal Distributional RL for LLM Post-Training

  • Jin Zhou
  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Jonathan Chang
  • Zhaolin Gao
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Kilian Weinberger
  • Kianté Brantley
  • Wen Sun

Reinforcement learning (RL) post-training is crucial for LLM alignment and reasoning, but existing policy-based methods, such as PPO and DPO, can fall short of fixing shortcuts inherited from pre-training. In this work, we introduce $Q\sharp$, a value-based algorithm for KL-regularized RL that guides the reference policy using the optimal regularized $Q$ function. We propose to learn the optimal $Q$ function using distributional RL on an aggregated online dataset. Unlike prior value-based baselines that guide the model using unregularized $Q$-values, our method is theoretically principled and provably learns the optimal policy for the KL-regularized RL problem. Empirically, $Q\sharp$ outperforms prior baselines in math reasoning benchmarks while maintaining a smaller KL divergence to the reference policy. Theoretically, we establish a reduction from KL-regularized RL to no-regret online learning, providing the first bounds for deterministic MDPs under only realizability. Thanks to distributional RL, our bounds are also variance-dependent and converge faster when the reference policy has small variance. In sum, our results highlight $Q\sharp$ as an effective approach for post-training LLMs, offering both improved performance and theoretical guarantees. The code can be found at \url{https: //github. com/jinpz/q_sharp}.

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

A Reductions Approach to Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with Optimized Certainty Equivalents

  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Dawen Liang
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Wen Sun 0002

We study risk-sensitive RL where the goal is learn a history-dependent policy that optimizes some risk measure of cumulative rewards. We consider a family of risks called the optimized certainty equivalents (OCE), which captures important risk measures such as conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), entropic risk and Markowitz’s mean-variance. In this setting, we propose two meta-algorithms: one grounded in optimism and another based on policy gradients, both of which can leverage the broad suite of risk-neutral RL algorithms in an augmented Markov Decision Process (MDP). Via a reductions approach, we leverage theory for risk-neutral RL to establish novel OCE bounds in complex, rich-observation MDPs. For the optimism-based algorithm, we prove bounds that generalize prior results in CVaR RL and that provide the first risk-sensitive bounds for exogenous block MDPs. For the gradient-based algorithm, we establish both monotone improvement and global convergence guarantees under a discrete reward assumption. Finally, we empirically show that our algorithms learn the optimal history-dependent policy in a proof-of-concept MDP, where all Markovian policies provably fail.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Efficient Adaptive Experimentation with Noncompliance

  • Miruna Oprescu
  • Brian Cho
  • Nathan Kallus

We study the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) in adaptive experiments where treatment can only be encouraged—rather than directly assigned—via a binary instrumental variable. Building on semiparametric efficiency theory, we derive the efficiency bound for ATE estimation under arbitrary, history-dependent instrument-assignment policies, and show it is minimized by a variance-aware allocation rule that balances outcome noise and compliance variability. Leveraging this insight, we introduce AMRIV—an A daptive, M ultiply- R obust estimator for I nstrumental- V ariable settings with variance-optimal assignment. AMRIV pairs (i) an online policy that adaptively approximates the optimal allocation with (ii) a sequential, influence-function–based estimator that attains the semiparametric efficiency bound while retaining multiply-robust consistency. We establish asymptotic normality, explicit convergence rates, and anytime-valid asymptotic confidence sequences that enable sequential inference. Finally, we demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our approach through empirical studies, showing that adaptive instrument assignment, when combined with the AMRIV estimator, yields improved efficiency and robustness compared to existing baselines.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

GST-UNet: A Neural Framework for Spatiotemporal Causal Inference with Time-Varying Confounding

  • Miruna Oprescu
  • David Park
  • Xihaier Luo
  • Shinjae Yoo
  • Nathan Kallus

Estimating causal effects from spatiotemporal observational data is essential in public health, environmental science, and policy evaluation, where randomized experiments are often infeasible. Existing approaches, however, either rely on strong structural assumptions or fail to handle key challenges such as interference, spatial confounding, temporal carryover, and time-varying confounding —where covariates are influenced by past treatments and, in turn, affect future ones. We introduce the GST-UNet ( G -computation S patio- T emporal UNet ), a theoretically grounded neural framework that combines a U-Net-based spatiotemporal encoder with regression-based iterative G-computation to estimate location-specific potential outcomes under complex intervention sequences. GST-UNet explicitly adjusts for time-varying confounders and captures non-linear spatial and temporal dependencies, enabling valid causal inference from a single observed trajectory in data-scarce settings. We validate its effectiveness in synthetic experiments and in a real-world analysis of wildfire smoke exposure and respiratory hospitalizations during the 2018 California Camp Fire. Together, these results position GST-UNet as a principled and ready-to-use framework for spatiotemporal causal inference, advancing reliable estimation in policy-relevant and scientific domains.

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Multi-Armed Bandits with Interference: Bridging Causal Inference and Adversarial Bandits

  • Su Jia
  • Peter I. Frazier
  • Nathan Kallus

Experimentation with interference poses a significant challenge in contemporary online platforms. Prior research on experimentation with interference has concentrated on the final output of a policy. Cumulative performance, while equally important, is less well understood. To address this gap, we introduce the problem of Multi-armed Bandits with Interference (MABI), where the learner assigns an arm to each of $N$ experimental units over $T$ rounds. The reward of each unit in each round depends on the treatments of all units, where the interference between two units decays in their distance. The reward functions are chosen by an adversary and may vary arbitrarily over time and across different units. We first show that the optimal expected regret (against the best fixed-arm policy) is $\tilde O(\sqrt T)$, and can be achieved by a switchback policy. However, the regret (as a random variable) for any switchback policy suffers a high variance, since it does not account for $N$. We propose a policy based on a novel clustered randomization scheme, whose regret (i) is optimal in expectation and (ii) admits a high probability bound that vanishes in $N$.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Simulation-Based Inference for Adaptive Experiments

  • Brian Cho
  • Aurelien Bibaut
  • Nathan Kallus

Multi-arm bandit experimental designs are increasingly being adopted over standard randomized trials due to their potential to improve outcomes for study participants, enable faster identification of the best-performing options, and/or enhance the precision of estimating key parameters. Current approaches for inference after adaptive sampling either rely on asymptotic normality under restricted experiment designs or underpowered martingale concentration inequalities that lead to weak power in practice. To bypass these limitations, we propose a simulation-based approach for conducting hypothesis tests and constructing confidence intervals for arm specific means and their differences. Our simulation-based approach uses positively biased nuisances to generate additional trajectories of the experiment, which we call \textit{simulation with optimism}. Using these simulations, we characterize the distribution potentially non-normal sample mean test statistic to conduct inference. We provide guarantees for (i) asymptotic type I error control, (ii) convergence of our confidence intervals, and (iii) asymptotic strong consistency of our estimator over a wide variety of common bandit designs. Our empirical results show that our approach achieves the desired coverage while reducing confidence interval widths by up to 50\%, with drastic improvements for arms not targeted by the design.

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Value-Guided Search for Efficient Chain-of-Thought Reasoning

  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Jin Zhou
  • Jonathan Chang
  • Zhaolin Gao
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Kianté Brantley
  • Wen Sun

In this paper, we propose a simple and efficient method for value model training on long-context reasoning traces. Compared to existing process reward models (PRMs), our method does not require a fine-grained notion of ``step, '' which is difficult to define for long-context reasoning models. By collecting a dataset of 2. 5 million reasoning traces, we train a 1. 5B token-level value model and apply it to DeepSeek models for improved performance with test-time compute scaling. We find that block-wise value-guided search (\texttt{VGS}) with a final weighted majority vote achieves better test-time scaling than standard methods such as majority voting or best-of-$n$. Moreover, \texttt{VGS} significantly reduces the inference FLOPs required to achieve the same performance of majority voting. Our dataset, model and codebase are open-sourced at \codeurl.

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Contextual Linear Optimization with Bandit Feedback

  • Yichun Hu
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Xiaojie Mao
  • Yanchen Wu

Contextual linear optimization (CLO) uses predictive contextual features to reduce uncertainty in random cost coefficients and thereby improve average-cost performance. An example is the stochastic shortest path problem with random edge costs (e. g. , traffic) and contextual features (e. g. , lagged traffic, weather). Existing work on CLO assumes the data has fully observed cost coefficient vectors, but in many applications, we can only see the realized cost of a historical decision, that is, just one projection of the random cost coefficient vector, to which we refer as bandit feedback. We study a class of offline learning algorithms for CLO with bandit feedback, which we term induced empirical risk minimization (IERM), where we fit a predictive model to directly optimize the downstream performance of the policy it induces. We show a fast-rate regret bound for IERM that allows for misspecified model classes and flexible choices of the optimization estimate, and we develop computationally tractable surrogate losses. A byproduct of our theory of independent interest is fast-rate regret bound for IERM with full feedback and misspecified policy class. We compare the performance of different modeling choices numerically using a stochastic shortest path example and provide practical insights from the empirical results.

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Efficient and Sharp Off-Policy Evaluation in Robust Markov Decision Processes

  • Andrew Bennett
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Miruna Oprescu
  • Wen Sun
  • Kaiwen Wang

We study the evaluation of a policy under best- and worst-case perturbations to a Markov decision process (MDP), using transition observations from the original MDP, whether they are generated under the same or a different policy. This is an important problem when there is the possibility of a shift between historical and future environments, \emph{e. g. } due to unmeasured confounding, distributional shift, or an adversarial environment. We propose a perturbation model that allows changes in the transition kernel densities up to a given multiplicative factor or its reciprocal, extending the classic marginal sensitivity model (MSM) for single time-step decision-making to infinite-horizon RL. We characterize the sharp bounds on policy value under this model -- \emph{i. e. }, the tightest possible bounds based on transition observations from the original MDP -- and we study the estimation of these bounds from such transition observations. We develop an estimator with several important guarantees: it is semiparametrically efficient, and remains so even when certain necessary nuisance functions, such as worst-case Q-functions, are estimated at slow, nonparametric rates. Our estimator is also asymptotically normal, enabling straightforward statistical inference using Wald confidence intervals. Moreover, when certain nuisances are estimated inconsistently, the estimator still provides valid, albeit possibly not sharp, bounds on the policy value. We validate these properties in numerical simulations. The combination of accounting for environment shifts from train to test (robustness), being insensitive to nuisance-function estimation (orthogonality), and addressing the challenge of learning from finite samples (inference) together leads to credible and reliable policy evaluation.

NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Estimating Heterogeneous Treatment Effects by Combining Weak Instruments and Observational Data

  • Miruna Oprescu
  • Nathan Kallus

Accurately predicting conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) is crucial in personalized medicine and digital platform analytics. Since the treatments of interest often cannot be directly randomized, observational data is leveraged to learn CATEs, but this approach can incur significant bias from unobserved confounding. One strategy to overcome these limitations is to leverage instrumental variables (IVs) as latent quasi-experiments, such as randomized intent-to-treat assignments or randomized product recommendations. This approach, on the other hand, can suffer from low compliance, i. e. , IV weakness. Some subgroups may even exhibit zero compliance, meaning we cannot instrument for their CATEs at all. In this paper, we develop a novel approach to combine IV and observational data to enable reliable CATE estimation in the presence of unobserved confounding in the observational data and low compliance in the IV data, including no compliance for some subgroups. We propose a two-stage framework that first learns \textit{biased} CATEs from the observational data, and then applies a compliance-weighted correction using IV data, effectively leveraging IV strength variability across covariates. We characterize the convergence rates of our method and validate its effectiveness through a simulation study. Additionally, we demonstrate its utility with real data by analyzing the heterogeneous effects of 401(k) plan participation on wealth.

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Inferring the Long-Term Causal Effects of Long-Term Treatments from Short-Term Experiments

  • Allen Tran 0002
  • Aurélien Bibaut
  • Nathan Kallus

We study inference on the long-term causal effect of a continual exposure to a novel intervention, which we term a long-term treatment, based on an experiment involving only short-term observations. Key examples include the long-term health effects of regularly-taken medicine or of environmental hazards and the long-term effects on users of changes to an online platform. This stands in contrast to short-term treatments or "shocks, " whose long-term effect can reasonably be mediated by short-term observations, enabling the use of surrogate methods. Long-term treatments by definition have direct effects on long-term outcomes via continual exposure, so surrogacy conditions cannot reasonably hold. We connect the problem with offline reinforcement learning, leveraging doubly-robust estimators to estimate long-term causal effects for long-term treatments and construct confidence intervals.

RLC Conference 2024 Conference Paper

JoinGym: An Efficient Join Order Selection Environment

  • Junxiong Wang
  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Yueying Li
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Immanuel Trummer
  • Wen Sun

Join order selection (JOS), the ordering of join operations to minimize query execution cost, is a core NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem in database query optimization. We present \textsc{JoinGym}, a lightweight and easy-to-use reinforcement learning (RL) environment that captures both left-deep and bushy variants of the JOS problem. Compared to prior works that execute queries online, \textsc{JoinGym} has much higher throughput and efficiently simulates the cost of joins offline by looking up the intermediate table's cardinality from a pre-computed dataset. We provide such a cardinality dataset for $3300$ queries based on real IMDb workloads, which is the largest suite its kind and may be of independent interest. We extensively benchmark several RL algorithms and find that the best policies are competitive with or better than Postgres, a strong non-learning baseline. However, the learned policies can still catastrophically fail on a small fraction of queries which motivates future research using \textsc{JoinGym} to improve generalization and safety in long-tailed, partially observed, combinatorial optimization problems.

RLJ Journal 2024 Journal Article

JoinGym: An Efficient Join Order Selection Environment

  • Junxiong Wang
  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Yueying Li
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Immanuel Trummer
  • Wen Sun

Join order selection (JOS), the ordering of join operations to minimize query execution cost, is a core NP-hard combinatorial optimization problem in database query optimization. We present \textsc{JoinGym}, a lightweight and easy-to-use reinforcement learning (RL) environment that captures both left-deep and bushy variants of the JOS problem. Compared to prior works that execute queries online, \textsc{JoinGym} has much higher throughput and efficiently simulates the cost of joins offline by looking up the intermediate table's cardinality from a pre-computed dataset. We provide such a cardinality dataset for $3300$ queries based on real IMDb workloads, which is the largest suite its kind and may be of independent interest. We extensively benchmark several RL algorithms and find that the best policies are competitive with or better than Postgres, a strong non-learning baseline. However, the learned policies can still catastrophically fail on a small fraction of queries which motivates future research using \textsc{JoinGym} to improve generalization and safety in long-tailed, partially observed, combinatorial optimization problems.

JMLR Journal 2024 Journal Article

Localized Debiased Machine Learning: Efficient Inference on Quantile Treatment Effects and Beyond

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Xiaojie Mao
  • Masatoshi Uehara

We consider estimating a low-dimensional parameter in an estimating equation involving high-dimensional nuisance functions that depend on the target parameter as an input. A central example is the efficient estimating equation for the (local) quantile treatment effect ((L)QTE) in causal inference, which involves the covariate-conditional cumulative distribution function evaluated at the quantile to be estimated. Existing approaches based on flexibly estimating the nuisances and plugging in the estimates, such as debiased machine learning (DML), require we learn the nuisance at all possible inputs. For (L)QTE, DML requires we learn the whole covariate-conditional cumulative distribution function. We instead propose localized debiased machine learning (LDML), which avoids this burdensome step and needs only estimate nuisances at a single initial rough guess for the target parameter. For (L)QTE, LDML involves learning just two regression functions, a standard task for machine learning methods. We prove that under lax rate conditions our estimator has the same favorable asymptotic behavior as the infeasible estimator that uses the unknown true nuisances. Thus, LDML notably enables practically-feasible and theoretically-grounded efficient estimation of important quantities in causal inference such as (L)QTEs when we must control for many covariates and/or flexible relationships, as we demonstrate in empirical studies. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] [ code ] &copy JMLR 2024. ( edit, beta )

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

More Benefits of Being Distributional: Second-Order Bounds for Reinforcement Learning

  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Owen Oertell
  • Alekh Agarwal
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Wen Sun 0002

In this paper, we prove that Distributional Reinforcement Learning (DistRL), which learns the return distribution, can obtain second-order bounds in both online and offline RL in general settings with function approximation. Second-order bounds are instance-dependent bounds that scale with the variance of return, which we prove are tighter than the previously known small-loss bounds of distributional RL. To the best of our knowledge, our results are the first second-order bounds for low-rank MDPs and for offline RL. When specializing to contextual bandits (one-step RL problem), we show that a distributional learning based optimism algorithm achieves a second-order worst-case regret bound, and a second-order gap dependent bound, simultaneously. We also empirically demonstrate the benefit of DistRL in contextual bandits on real-world datasets. We highlight that our analysis with DistRL is relatively simple, follows the general framework of optimism in the face of uncertainty and does not require weighted regression. Our results suggest that DistRL is a promising framework for obtaining second-order bounds in general RL settings, thus further reinforcing the benefits of DistRL.

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Peeking with PEAK: Sequential, Nonparametric Composite Hypothesis Tests for Means of Multiple Data Streams

  • Brian Cho 0001
  • Kyra Gan
  • Nathan Kallus

We propose a novel nonparametric sequential test for composite hypotheses for means of multiple data streams. Our proposed method, peeking with expectation-based averaged capital (PEAK), builds upon the testing-by-betting framework and provides a non-asymptotic $\alpha$-level test across any stopping time. Our contributions are two-fold: (1) we propose a novel betting scheme and provide theoretical guarantees on type-I error control, power, and asymptotic growth rate/$e$-power in the setting of a single data stream; (2) we introduce PEAK, a generalization of this betting scheme to multiple streams, that (i) avoids using wasteful union bounds via averaging, (ii) is a test of power one under mild regularity conditions on the sampling scheme of the streams, and (iii) reduces computational overhead when applying the testing-as-betting approaches for pure-exploration bandit problems. We illustrate the practical benefits of PEAK using both synthetic and real-world HeartSteps datasets. Our experiments show that PEAK provides up to an 85% reduction in the number of samples before stopping compared to existing stopping rules for pure-exploration bandit problems, and matches the performance of state-of-the-art sequential tests while improving upon computational complexity.

ICLR Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Provable Offline Preference-Based Reinforcement Learning

  • Wenhao Zhan
  • Masatoshi Uehara
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Jason D. Lee
  • Wen Sun 0002

In this paper, we investigate the problem of offline Preference-based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) with human feedback where feedback is available in the form of preference between trajectory pairs rather than explicit rewards. Our proposed algorithm consists of two main steps: (1) estimate the implicit reward using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) with general function approximation from offline data and (2) solve a distributionally robust planning problem over a confidence set around the MLE. We consider the general reward setting where the reward can be defined over the whole trajectory and provide a novel guarantee that allows us to learn any target policy with a polynomial number of samples, as long as the target policy is covered by the offline data. This guarantee is the first of its kind with general function approximation. To measure the coverage of the target policy, we introduce a new single-policy concentrability coefficient, which can be upper bounded by the per-trajectory concentrability coefficient. We also establish lower bounds that highlight the necessity of such concentrability and the difference from standard RL, where state-action-wise rewards are directly observed. We further extend and analyze our algorithm when the feedback is given over action pairs.

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Switching the Loss Reduces the Cost in Batch Reinforcement Learning

  • Alex Ayoub
  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Vincent Liu
  • Samuel Robertson
  • James McInerney
  • Dawen Liang
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Csaba Szepesvári

We propose training fitted Q-iteration with log-loss (FQI-LOG) for batch reinforcement learning (RL). We show that the number of samples needed to learn a near-optimal policy with FQI-LOG scales with the accumulated cost of the optimal policy, which is zero in problems where acting optimally achieves the goal and incurs no cost. In doing so, we provide a general framework for proving small-cost bounds, i. e. bounds that scale with the optimal achievable cost, in batch RL. Moreover, we empirically verify that FQI-LOG uses fewer samples than FQI trained with squared loss on problems where the optimal policy reliably achieves the goal.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

B-Learner: Quasi-Oracle Bounds on Heterogeneous Causal Effects Under Hidden Confounding

  • Miruna Oprescu
  • Jacob Dorn
  • Marah Ghoummaid
  • Andrew Jesson
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Uri Shalit

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data is a crucial task across many fields, helping policy and decision-makers take better actions. There has been recent progress on robust and efficient methods for estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) function, but these methods often do not take into account the risk of hidden confounding, which could arbitrarily and unknowingly bias any causal estimate based on observational data. We propose a meta-learner called the B-Learner, which can efficiently learn sharp bounds on the CATE function under limits on the level of hidden confounding. We derive the B-Learner by adapting recent results for sharp and valid bounds of the average treatment effect (Dorn et al. , 2021) into the framework given by Kallus & Oprescu (2023) for robust and model-agnostic learning of conditional distributional treatment effects. The B-Learner can use any function estimator such as random forests and deep neural networks, and we prove its estimates are valid, sharp, efficient, and have a quasi-oracle property with respect to the constituent estimators under more general conditions than existing methods. Semi-synthetic experimental comparisons validate the theoretical findings, and we use real-world data demonstrate how the method might be used in practice.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Computationally Efficient PAC RL in POMDPs with Latent Determinism and Conditional Embeddings

  • Masatoshi Uehara
  • Ayush Sekhari
  • Jason D. Lee
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Wen Sun 0002

We study reinforcement learning with function approximation for large-scale Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) where the state space and observation space are large or even continuous. Particularly, we consider Hilbert space embeddings of POMDP where the feature of latent states and the feature of observations admit a conditional Hilbert space embedding of the observation emission process, and the latent state transition is deterministic. Under the function approximation setup where the optimal latent state-action $Q$-function is linear in the state feature, and the optimal $Q$-function has a gap in actions, we provide a computationally and statistically efficient algorithm for finding the exact optimal policy. We show our algorithm’s computational and statistical complexities scale polynomially with respect to the horizon and the intrinsic dimension of the feature on the observation space. Furthermore, we show both the deterministic latent transitions and gap assumptions are necessary to avoid statistical complexity exponential in horizon or dimension. Since our guarantee does not have an explicit dependence on the size of the state and observation spaces, our algorithm provably scales to large-scale POMDPs.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Future-Dependent Value-Based Off-Policy Evaluation in POMDPs

  • Masatoshi Uehara
  • Haruka Kiyohara
  • Andrew Bennett
  • Victor Chernozhukov
  • Nan Jiang
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Chengchun Shi
  • Wen Sun

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) for partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) with general function approximation. Existing methods such as sequential importance sampling estimators and fitted-Q evaluation suffer from the curse of horizon in POMDPs. To circumvent this problem, we develop a novel model-free OPE method by introducing future-dependent value functions that take future proxies as inputs. Future-dependent value functions play similar roles as classical value functions in fully-observable MDPs. We derive a new off-policy Bellman equation for future-dependent value functions as conditional moment equations that use history proxies as instrumental variables. We further propose a minimax learning method to learn future-dependent value functions using the new Bellman equation. We obtain the PAC result, which implies our OPE estimator is close to the true policy value as long as futures and histories contain sufficient information about latent states, and the Bellman completeness. Our code is available at https: //github. com/aiueola/neurips2023-future-dependent-ope

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Near-Minimax-Optimal Risk-Sensitive Reinforcement Learning with CVaR

  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Wen Sun 0002

In this paper, we study risk-sensitive Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the objective of Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) with risk tolerance $\tau$. Starting with multi-arm bandits (MABs), we show the minimax CVaR regret rate is $\Omega(\sqrt{\tau^{-1}AK})$, where $A$ is the number of actions and $K$ is the number of episodes, and that it is achieved by an Upper Confidence Bound algorithm with a novel Bernstein bonus. For online RL in tabular Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), we show a minimax regret lower bound of $\Omega(\sqrt{\tau^{-1}SAK})$ (with normalized cumulative rewards), where $S$ is the number of states, and we propose a novel bonus-driven Value Iteration procedure. We show that our algorithm achieves the optimal regret of $\widetilde O(\sqrt{\tau^{-1}SAK})$ under a continuity assumption and in general attains a near-optimal regret of $\widetilde O(\tau^{-1}\sqrt{SAK})$, which is minimax-optimal for constant $\tau$. This improves on the best available bounds. By discretizing rewards appropriately, our algorithms are computationally efficient.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Offline Minimax Soft-Q-learning Under Realizability and Partial Coverage

  • Masatoshi Uehara
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Jason D. Lee
  • Wen Sun

We consider offline reinforcement learning (RL) where we only have only access to offline data. In contrast to numerous offline RL algorithms that necessitate the uniform coverage of the offline data over state and action space, we propose value-based algorithms with PAC guarantees under partial coverage, specifically, coverage of offline data against a single policy, and realizability of soft Q-function (a. k. a. , entropy-regularized Q-function) and another function, which is defined as a solution to a saddle point of certain minimax optimization problem). Furthermore, we show the analogous result for Q-functions instead of soft Q-functions. To attain these guarantees, we use novel algorithms with minimax loss functions to accurately estimate soft Q-functions and Q-functions with -convergence guarantees measured on the offline data. We introduce these loss functions by casting the estimation problems into nonlinear convex optimization problems and taking the Lagrange functions.

ICML Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Smooth Non-stationary Bandits

  • Su Jia
  • Qian Xie 0005
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Peter I. Frazier

In many applications of online decision making, the environment is non-stationary and it is therefore crucial to use bandit algorithms that handle changes. Most existing approaches are designed to protect against non-smooth changes, constrained only by total variation or Lipschitzness over time, where they guarantee $T^{2/3}$ regret. However, in practice environments are often changing smoothly, so such algorithms may incur higher-than-necessary regret in these settings and do not leverage information on the rate of change. In this paper, we study a non-stationary two-arm bandit problem where we assume an arm’s mean reward is a $\beta$-Hölder function over (normalized) time, meaning it is $(\beta-1)$-times Lipschitz-continuously differentiable. We show the first separation between the smooth and non-smooth regimes by presenting a policy with $T^{3/5}$ regret for $\beta=2$. We complement this result by a $T^{\frac{\beta+1}{2\beta+1}}$ lower bound for any integer $\beta\ge 1$, which matches our upper bound for $\beta=2$.

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

The Benefits of Being Distributional: Small-Loss Bounds for Reinforcement Learning

  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Kevin Zhou
  • Runzhe Wu
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Wen Sun

While distributional reinforcement learning (DistRL) has been empirically effective, the question of when and why it is better than vanilla, non-distributional RL has remained unanswered. This paper explains the benefits of DistRL through the lens of small-loss bounds, which are instance-dependent bounds that scale with optimal achievable cost. Particularly, our bounds converge much faster than those from non-distributional approaches if the optimal cost is small. As warmup, we propose a distributional contextual bandit (DistCB) algorithm, which we show enjoys small-loss regret bounds and empirically outperforms the state-of-the-art on three real-world tasks. In online RL, we propose a DistRL algorithm that constructs confidence sets using maximum likelihood estimation. We prove that our algorithm enjoys novel small-loss PAC bounds in low-rank MDPs. As part of our analysis, we introduce the $\ell_1$ distributional eluder dimension which may be of independent interest. Then, in offline RL, we show that pessimistic DistRL enjoys small-loss PAC bounds that are novel to the offline setting and are more robust to bad single-policy coverage.

ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Doubly Robust Distributionally Robust Off-Policy Evaluation and Learning

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Xiaojie Mao
  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Zhengyuan Zhou

Off-policy evaluation and learning (OPE/L) use offline observational data to make better decisions, which is crucial in applications where online experimentation is limited. However, depending entirely on logged data, OPE/L is sensitive to environment distribution shifts — discrepancies between the data-generating environment and that where policies are deployed. Si et al. , (2020) proposed distributionally robust OPE/L (DROPE/L) to address this, but the proposal relies on inverse-propensity weighting, whose estimation error and regret will deteriorate if propensities are nonparametrically estimated and whose variance is suboptimal even if not. For standard, non-robust, OPE/L, this is solved by doubly robust (DR) methods, but they do not naturally extend to the more complex DROPE/L, which involves a worst-case expectation. In this paper, we propose the first DR algorithms for DROPE/L with KL-divergence uncertainty sets. For evaluation, we propose Localized Doubly Robust DROPE (LDR$^2$OPE) and show that it achieves semiparametric efficiency under weak product rates conditions. Thanks to a localization technique, LDR$^2$OPE only requires fitting a small number of regressions, just like DR methods for standard OPE. For learning, we propose Continuum Doubly Robust DROPL (CDR$^2$OPL) and show that, under a product rate condition involving a continuum of regressions, it enjoys a fast regret rate of $O(N^{-1/2})$ even when unknown propensities are nonparametrically estimated. We empirically validate our algorithms in simulations and further extend our results to general $f$-divergence uncertainty sets.

JMLR Journal 2022 Journal Article

Generalization Bounds and Representation Learning for Estimation of Potential Outcomes and Causal Effects

  • Fredrik D. Johansson
  • Uri Shalit
  • Nathan Kallus
  • David Sontag

Practitioners in diverse fields such as healthcare, economics and education are eager to apply machine learning to improve decision making. The cost and impracticality of performing experiments and a recent monumental increase in electronic record keeping has brought attention to the problem of evaluating decisions based on non-experimental observational data. This is the setting of this work. In particular, we study estimation of individual-level potential outcomes and causal effects---such as a single patient's response to alternative medication---from recorded contexts, decisions and outcomes. We give generalization bounds on the error in estimated outcomes based on distributional distance measures between re-weighted samples of groups receiving different treatments. We provide conditions under which our bounds are tight and show how they relate to results for unsupervised domain adaptation. Led by our theoretical results, we devise algorithms which learn representations and weighting functions that minimize our bounds by regularizing the representation's induced treatment group distance, and encourage sharing of information between treatment groups. Finally, an experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data shows the value of our proposed representation architecture and regularization scheme. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2022. ( edit, beta )

ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Learning Bellman Complete Representations for Offline Policy Evaluation

  • Jonathan D. Chang
  • Kaiwen Wang
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Wen Sun 0002

We study representation learning for Offline Reinforcement Learning (RL), focusing on the important task of Offline Policy Evaluation (OPE). Recent work shows that, in contrast to supervised learning, realizability of the Q-function is not enough for learning it. Two sufficient conditions for sample-efficient OPE are Bellman completeness and coverage. Prior work often assumes that representations satisfying these conditions are given, with results being mostly theoretical in nature. In this work, we propose BCRL, which directly learns from data an approximately linear Bellman complete representation with good coverage. With this learned representation, we perform OPE using Least Square Policy Evaluation (LSPE) with linear functions in our learned representation. We present an end-to-end theoretical analysis, showing that our two-stage algorithm enjoys polynomial sample complexity provided some representation in the rich class considered is linear Bellman complete. Empirically, we extensively evaluate our algorithm on challenging, image-based continuous control tasks from the Deepmind Control Suite. We show our representation enables better OPE compared to previous representation learning methods developed for off-policy RL (e. g. , CURL, SPR). BCRL achieve competitive OPE error with the state-of-the-art method Fitted Q-Evaluation (FQE), and beats FQE when evaluating beyond the initial state distribution. Our ablations show that both linear Bellman complete and coverage components of our method are crucial.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Provably Efficient Reinforcement Learning in Partially Observable Dynamical Systems

  • Masatoshi Uehara
  • Ayush Sekhari
  • Jason D. Lee
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Wen Sun

We study Reinforcement Learning for partially observable systems using function approximation. We propose a new PO-bilinear framework, that is general enough to include models such as undercomplete tabular Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), Linear Quadratic Gaussian (LQG), Predictive State Representations (PSRs), as well as a newly introduced model Hilbert Space Embeddings of POMDPs. Under this framework, we propose an actor-critic style algorithm that is capable to performing agnostic policy learning. Given a policy class that consists of memory based policies (i. e. , policy that looks at a fixed-length window of recent observations), and a value function class that consists of functions taking both memory and future observations as inputs, our algorithm learns to compete against the best memory-based policy among the policy class. For certain examples such as undercomplete POMDPs and LQGs, by leveraging their special properties, our algorithm is even capable of competing against the globally optimal policy without paying an exponential dependence on the horizon.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

The Implicit Delta Method

  • Nathan Kallus
  • James McInerney

Epistemic uncertainty quantification is a crucial part of drawing credible conclusions from predictive models, whether concerned about the prediction at a given point or any downstream evaluation that uses the model as input. When the predictive model is simple and its evaluation differentiable, this task is solved by the delta method, where we propagate the asymptotically-normal uncertainty in the predictive model through the evaluation to compute standard errors and Wald confidence intervals. However, this becomes difficult when the model and/or evaluation becomes more complex. Remedies include the bootstrap, but it can be computationally infeasible when training the model even once is costly. In this paper, we propose an alternative, the implicit delta method, which works by infinitesimally regularizing the training loss of the predictive model to automatically assess downstream uncertainty. We show that the change in the evaluation due to regularization is consistent for the asymptotic variance of the evaluation estimator, even when the infinitesimal change is approximated by a finite difference. This provides both a reliable quantification of uncertainty in terms of standard errors as well as permits the construction of calibrated confidence intervals. We discuss connections to other approaches to uncertainty quantification, both Bayesian and frequentist, and demonstrate our approach empirically.

NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

What's the Harm? Sharp Bounds on the Fraction Negatively Affected by Treatment

  • Nathan Kallus

The fundamental problem of causal inference -- that we never observe counterfactuals -- prevents us from identifying how many might be negatively affected by a proposed intervention. If, in an A/B test, half of users click (or buy, or watch, or renew, etc. ), whether exposed to the standard experience A or a new one B, hypothetically it could be because the change affects no one, because the change positively affects half the user population to go from no-click to click while negatively affecting the other half, or something in between. While unknowable, this impact is clearly of material importance to the decision to implement a change or not, whether due to fairness, long-term, systemic, or operational considerations. We therefore derive the tightest-possible (i. e. , sharp) bounds on the fraction negatively affected (and other related estimands) given data with only factual observations, whether experimental or observational. Naturally, the more we can stratify individuals by observable covariates, the tighter the sharp bounds. Since these bounds involve unknown functions that must be learned from data, we develop a robust inference algorithm that is efficient almost regardless of how and how fast these functions are learned, remains consistent when some are mislearned, and still gives valid conservative bounds when most are mislearned. Our methodology altogether therefore strongly supports credible conclusions: it avoids spuriously point-identifying this unknowable impact, focusing on the best bounds instead, and it permits exceedingly robust inference on these. We demonstrate our method in simulation studies and in a case study of career counseling for the unemployed.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Control Variates for Slate Off-Policy Evaluation

  • Nikos Vlassis
  • Ashok Chandrashekar
  • Fernando Amat
  • Nathan Kallus

We study the problem of off-policy evaluation from batched contextual bandit data with multidimensional actions, often termed slates. The problem is common to recommender systems and user-interface optimization, and it is particularly challenging because of the combinatorially-sized action space. Swaminathan et al. (2017) have proposed the pseudoinverse (PI) estimator under the assumption that the conditional mean rewards are additive in actions. Using control variates, we consider a large class of unbiased estimators that includes as specific cases the PI estimator and (asymptotically) its self-normalized variant. By optimizing over this class, we obtain new estimators with risk improvement guarantees over both the PI and the self-normalized PI estimators. Experiments with real-world recommender data as well as synthetic data validate these improvements in practice.

ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Optimal Off-Policy Evaluation from Multiple Logging Policies

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Yuta Saito
  • Masatoshi Uehara

We study off-policy evaluation (OPE) from multiple logging policies, each generating a dataset of fixed size, i. e. , stratified sampling. Previous work noted that in this setting the ordering of the variances of different importance sampling estimators is instance-dependent, which brings up a dilemma as to which importance sampling weights to use. In this paper, we resolve this dilemma by finding the OPE estimator for multiple loggers with minimum variance for any instance, i. e. , the efficient one. In particular, we establish the efficiency bound under stratified sampling and propose an estimator achieving this bound when given consistent $q$-estimates. To guard against misspecification of $q$-functions, we also provide a way to choose the control variate in a hypothesis class to minimize variance. Extensive experiments demonstrate the benefits of our methods’ efficiently leveraging of the stratified sampling of off-policy data from multiple loggers.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Post-Contextual-Bandit Inference

  • Aurelien Bibaut
  • Maria Dimakopoulou
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Antoine Chambaz
  • Mark van der Laan

Contextual bandit algorithms are increasingly replacing non-adaptive A/B tests in e-commerce, healthcare, and policymaking because they can both improve outcomes for study participants and increase the chance of identifying good or even best policies. To support credible inference on novel interventions at the end of the study, nonetheless, we still want to construct valid confidence intervals on average treatment effects, subgroup effects, or value of new policies. The adaptive nature of the data collected by contextual bandit algorithms, however, makes this difficult: standard estimators are no longer asymptotically normally distributed and classic confidence intervals fail to provide correct coverage. While this has been addressed in non-contextual settings by using stabilized estimators, variance stabilized estimators in the contextual setting pose unique challenges that we tackle for the first time in this paper. We propose the Contextual Adaptive Doubly Robust (CADR) estimator, a novel estimator for policy value that is asymptotically normal under contextual adaptive data collection. The main technical challenge in constructing CADR is designing adaptive and consistent conditional standard deviation estimators for stabilization. Extensive numerical experiments using 57 OpenML datasets demonstrate that confidence intervals based on CADR uniquely provide correct coverage.

NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Risk Minimization from Adaptively Collected Data: Guarantees for Supervised and Policy Learning

  • Aurelien Bibaut
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Maria Dimakopoulou
  • Antoine Chambaz
  • Mark van der Laan

Empirical risk minimization (ERM) is the workhorse of machine learning, whether for classification and regression or for off-policy policy learning, but its model-agnostic guarantees can fail when we use adaptively collected data, such as the result of running a contextual bandit algorithm. We study a generic importance sampling weighted ERM algorithm for using adaptively collected data to minimize the average of a loss function over a hypothesis class and provide first-of-their-kind generalization guarantees and fast convergence rates. Our results are based on a new maximal inequality that carefully leverages the importance sampling structure to obtain rates with the good dependence on the exploration rate in the data. For regression, we provide fast rates that leverage the strong convexity of squared-error loss. For policy learning, we provide regret guarantees that close an open gap in the existing literature whenever exploration decays to zero, as is the case for bandit-collected data. An empirical investigation validates our theory.

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Confounding-Robust Policy Evaluation in Infinite-Horizon Reinforcement Learning

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Angela Zhou

Off-policy evaluation of sequential decision policies from observational data is necessary in applications of batch reinforcement learning such as education and healthcare. In such settings, however, unobserved variables confound observed actions, rendering exact evaluation of new policies impossible, i. e, unidentifiable. We develop a robust approach that estimates sharp bounds on the (unidentifiable) value of a given policy in an infinite-horizon problem given data from another policy with unobserved confounding, subject to a sensitivity model. We consider stationary unobserved confounding and compute bounds by optimizing over the set of all stationary state-occupancy ratios that agree with a new partially identified estimating equation and the sensitivity model. We prove convergence to the sharp bounds as we collect more confounded data. Although checking set membership is a linear program, the support function is given by a difficult nonconvex optimization problem. We develop approximations based on nonconvex projected gradient descent and demonstrate the resulting bounds empirically.

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

DeepMatch: Balancing Deep Covariate Representations for Causal Inference Using Adversarial Training

  • Nathan Kallus

We study optimal covariate balance for causal inferences from observational data when rich covariates and complex relationships necessitate flexible modeling with neural networks. Standard approaches such as propensity weighting and matching/balancing fail in such settings due to miscalibrated propensity nets and inappropriate covariate representations, respectively. We propose a new method based on adversarial training of a weighting and a discriminator network that effectively addresses this methodological gap. This is demonstrated through new theoretical characterizations and empirical results on both synthetic and clinical data showing how causal analyses can be salvaged in such challenging settings.

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Double Reinforcement Learning for Efficient and Robust Off-Policy Evaluation

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Masatoshi Uehara

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning allows one to evaluate novel decision policies without needing to conduct exploration, which is often costly or otherwise infeasible. We consider for the first time the semiparametric efficiency limits of OPE in Markov decision processes (MDPs), where actions, rewards, and states are memoryless. We show existing OPE estimators may fail to be efficient in this setting. We develop a new estimator based on cross-fold estimation of $q$-functions and marginalized density ratios, which we term double reinforcement learning (DRL). We show that DRL is efficient when both components are estimated at fourth-root rates and is also doubly robust when only one component is consistent. We investigate these properties empirically and demonstrate the performance benefits due to harnessing memorylessness.

JMLR Journal 2020 Journal Article

Double Reinforcement Learning for Efficient Off-Policy Evaluation in Markov Decision Processes

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Masatoshi Uehara

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in reinforcement learning allows one to evaluate novel decision policies without needing to conduct exploration, which is often costly or otherwise infeasible. We consider for the first time the semiparametric efficiency limits of OPE in Markov decision processes (MDPs), where actions, rewards, and states are memoryless. We show existing OPE estimators may fail to be efficient in this setting. We develop a new estimator based on cross-fold estimation of $q$-functions and marginalized density ratios, which we term double reinforcement learning (DRL). We show that DRL is efficient when both components are estimated at fourth-root rates and is also doubly robust when only one component is consistent. We investigate these properties empirically and demonstrate the performance benefits due to harnessing memorylessness. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] [ code ] &copy JMLR 2020. ( edit, beta )

NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Doubly Robust Off-Policy Value and Gradient Estimation for Deterministic Policies

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Masatoshi Uehara

Offline reinforcement learning, wherein one uses off-policy data logged by a fixed behavior policy to evaluate and learn new policies, is crucial in applications where experimentation is limited such as medicine. We study the estimation of policy value and gradient of a deterministic policy from off-policy data when actions are continuous. Targeting deterministic policies, for which action is a deterministic function of state, is crucial since optimal policies are always deterministic (up to ties). In this setting, standard importance sampling and doubly robust estimators for policy value and gradient fail because the density ratio does not exist. To circumvent this issue, we propose several new doubly robust estimators based on different kernelization approaches. We analyze the asymptotic mean-squared error of each of these under mild rate conditions for nuisance estimators. Specifically, we demonstrate how to obtain a rate that is independent of the horizon length.

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Efficient Policy Learning from Surrogate-Loss Classification Reductions

  • Andrew Bennett
  • Nathan Kallus

Recent work on policy learning from observational data has highlighted the importance of efficient policy evaluation and has proposed reductions to weighted (cost-sensitive) classification. But, efficient policy evaluation need not yield efficient estimation of policy parameters. We consider the estimation problem given by a weighted surrogate-loss classification with any score function, either direct, inverse-propensity-weighted, or doubly robust. We show that, under a correct specification assumption, the weighted classification formulation need not be efficient for policy parameters. We draw a contrast to actual (possibly weighted) binary classification, where correct specification implies a parametric model, while for policy learning it only implies a semi-parametric model. In light of this, we instead propose an estimation approach based on generalized method of moments, which is efficient for the policy parameters. We propose a particular method based on recent developments on solving moment problems using neural networks and demonstrate the efficiency and regret benefits of this method empirically.

JMLR Journal 2020 Journal Article

Generalized Optimal Matching Methods for Causal Inference

  • Nathan Kallus

We develop an encompassing framework for matching, covariate balancing, and doubly-robust methods for causal inference from observational data called generalized optimal matching (GOM). The framework is given by generalizing a new functional-analytical formulation of optimal matching, giving rise to the class of GOM methods, for which we provide a single unified theory to analyze tractability and consistency. Many commonly used existing methods are included in GOM and, using their GOM interpretation, can be extended to optimally and automatically trade off balance for variance and outperform their standard counterparts. As a subclass, GOM gives rise to kernel optimal matching (KOM), which, as supported by new theoretical and empirical results, is notable for combining many of the positive properties of other methods in one. KOM, which is solved as a linearly-constrained convex-quadratic optimization problem, inherits both the interpretability and model-free consistency of matching but can also achieve the $\sqrt{n}$-consistency of well-specified regression and the bias reduction and robustness of doubly robust methods. In settings of limited overlap, KOM enables a very transparent method for interval estimation for partial identification and robust coverage. We demonstrate this in examples with both synthetic and real data. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2020. ( edit, beta )

ICML Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Statistically Efficient Off-Policy Policy Gradients

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Masatoshi Uehara

Policy gradient methods in reinforcement learning update policy parameters by taking steps in the direction of an estimated gradient of policy value. In this paper, we consider the efficient estimation of policy gradients from off-policy data, where the estimation is particularly non-trivial. We derive the asymptotic lower bound on the feasible mean-squared error in both Markov and non-Markov decision processes and show that existing estimators fail to achieve it in general settings. We propose a meta-algorithm that achieves the lower bound without any parametric assumptions and exhibits a unique 4-way double robustness property. We discuss how to estimate nuisances that the algorithm relies on. Finally, we establish guarantees at the rate at which we approach a stationary point when we take steps in the direction of our new estimated policy gradient.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Assessing Disparate Impact of Personalized Interventions: Identifiability and Bounds

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Angela Zhou

Personalized interventions in social services, education, and healthcare leverage individual-level causal effect predictions in order to give the best treatment to each individual or to prioritize program interventions for the individuals most likely to benefit. While the sensitivity of these domains compels us to evaluate the fairness of such policies, we show that actually auditing their disparate impacts per standard observational metrics, such as true positive rates, is impossible since ground truths are unknown. Whether our data is experimental or observational, an individual's actual outcome under an intervention different than that received can never be known, only predicted based on features. We prove how we can nonetheless point-identify these quantities under the additional assumption of monotone treatment response, which may be reasonable in many applications. We further provide a sensitivity analysis for this assumption via sharp partial-identification bounds under violations of monotonicity of varying strengths. We show how to use our results to audit personalized interventions using partially-identified ROC and xROC curves and demonstrate this in a case study of a French job training dataset.

ICML Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Classifying Treatment Responders Under Causal Effect Monotonicity

  • Nathan Kallus

In the context of individual-level causal inference, we study the problem of predicting whether someone will respond or not to a treatment based on their features and past examples of features, treatment indicator (e. g. , drug/no drug), and a binary outcome (e. g. , recovery from disease). As a classification task, the problem is made difficult by not knowing the example outcomes under the opposite treatment indicators. We assume the effect is monotonic, as in advertising’s effect on a purchase or bail-setting’s effect on reappearance in court: either it would have happened regardless of treatment, not happened regardless, or happened only depending on exposure to treatment. Predicting whether the latter is latently the case is our focus. While previous work focuses on conditional average treatment effect estimation, formulating the problem as a classification task allows us to develop new tools more suited to this problem. By leveraging monotonicity, we develop new discriminative and generative algorithms for the responder-classification problem. We explore and discuss connections to corrupted data and policy learning. We provide an empirical study with both synthetic and real datasets to compare these specialized algorithms to standard benchmarks.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Deep Generalized Method of Moments for Instrumental Variable Analysis

  • Andrew Bennett
  • Nathan Kallus
  • Tobias Schnabel

Instrumental variable analysis is a powerful tool for estimating causal effects when randomization or full control of confounders is not possible. The application of standard methods such as 2SLS, GMM, and more recent variants are significantly impeded when the causal effects are complex, the instruments are high-dimensional, and/or the treatment is high-dimensional. In this paper, we propose the DeepGMM algorithm to overcome this. Our algorithm is based on a new variational reformulation of GMM with optimal inverse-covariance weighting that allows us to efficiently control very many moment conditions. We further develop practical techniques for optimization and model selection that make it particularly successful in practice. Our algorithm is also computationally tractable and can handle large-scale datasets. Numerical results show our algorithm matches the performance of the best tuned methods in standard settings and continues to work in high-dimensional settings where even recent methods break.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Intrinsically Efficient, Stable, and Bounded Off-Policy Evaluation for Reinforcement Learning

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Masatoshi Uehara

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) in both contextual bandits and reinforcement learning allows one to evaluate novel decision policies without needing to conduct exploration, which is often costly or otherwise infeasible. The problem's importance has attracted many proposed solutions, including importance sampling (IS), self-normalized IS (SNIS), and doubly robust (DR) estimates. DR and its variants ensure semiparametric local efficiency if Q-functions are well-specified, but if they are not they can be worse than both IS and SNIS. It also does not enjoy SNIS's inherent stability and boundedness. We propose new estimators for OPE based on empirical likelihood that are always more efficient than IS, SNIS, and DR and satisfy the same stability and boundedness properties as SNIS. On the way, we categorize various properties and classify existing estimators by them. Besides the theoretical guarantees, empirical studies suggest the new estimators provide advantages.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Policy Evaluation with Latent Confounders via Optimal Balance

  • Andrew Bennett
  • Nathan Kallus

Evaluating novel contextual bandit policies using logged data is crucial in applications where exploration is costly, such as medicine. But it usually relies on the assumption of no unobserved confounders, which is bound to fail in practice. We study the question of policy evaluation when we instead have proxies for the latent confounders and develop an importance weighting method that avoids fitting a latent outcome regression model. Surprisingly, we show that there exist no single set of weights that give unbiased evaluation regardless of outcome model, unlike the case with no unobserved confounders where density ratios are sufficient. Instead, we propose an adversarial objective and weights that minimize it, ensuring sufficient balance in the latent confounders regardless of outcome model. We develop theory characterizing the consistency of our method and tractable algorithms for it. Empirical results validate the power of our method when confounders are latent.

NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

The Fairness of Risk Scores Beyond Classification: Bipartite Ranking and the XAUC Metric

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Angela Zhou

Where machine-learned predictive risk scores inform high-stakes decisions, such as bail and sentencing in criminal justice, fairness has been a serious concern. Recent work has characterized the disparate impact that such risk scores can have when used for a binary classification task. This may not account, however, for the more diverse downstream uses of risk scores and their non-binary nature. To better account for this, in this paper, we investigate the fairness of predictive risk scores from the point of view of a bipartite ranking task, where one seeks to rank positive examples higher than negative ones. We introduce the xAUC disparity as a metric to assess the disparate impact of risk scores and define it as the difference in the probabilities of ranking a random positive example from one protected group above a negative one from another group and vice versa. We provide a decomposition of bipartite ranking loss into components that involve the discrepancy and components that involve pure predictive ability within each group. We use xAUC analysis to audit predictive risk scores for recidivism prediction, income prediction, and cardiac arrest prediction, where it describes disparities that are not evident from simply comparing within-group predictive performance.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Balanced Policy Evaluation and Learning

  • Nathan Kallus

We present a new approach to the problems of evaluating and learning personalized decision policies from observational data of past contexts, decisions, and outcomes. Only the outcome of the enacted decision is available and the historical policy is unknown. These problems arise in personalized medicine using electronic health records and in internet advertising. Existing approaches use inverse propensity weighting (or, doubly robust versions) to make historical outcome (or, residual) data look like it were generated by a new policy being evaluated or learned. But this relies on a plug-in approach that rejects data points with a decision that disagrees with the new policy, leading to high variance estimates and ineffective learning. We propose a new, balance-based approach that too makes the data look like the new policy but does so directly by finding weights that optimize for balance between the weighted data and the target policy in the given, finite sample, which is equivalent to minimizing worst-case or posterior conditional mean square error. Our policy learner proceeds as a two-level optimization problem over policies and weights. We demonstrate that this approach markedly outperforms existing ones both in evaluation and learning, which is unsurprising given the wider support of balance-based weights. We establish extensive theoretical consistency guarantees and regret bounds that support this empirical success.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Causal Inference with Noisy and Missing Covariates via Matrix Factorization

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Xiaojie Mao
  • Madeleine Udell

Valid causal inference in observational studies often requires controlling for confounders. However, in practice measurements of confounders may be noisy, and can lead to biased estimates of causal effects. We show that we can reduce bias induced by measurement noise using a large number of noisy measurements of the underlying confounders. We propose the use of matrix factorization to infer the confounders from noisy covariates. This flexible and principled framework adapts to missing values, accommodates a wide variety of data types, and can enhance a wide variety of causal inference methods. We bound the error for the induced average treatment effect estimator and show it is consistent in a linear regression setting, using Exponential Family Matrix Completion preprocessing. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure in numerical experiments with both synthetic data and real clinical data.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Confounding-Robust Policy Improvement

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Angela Zhou

We study the problem of learning personalized decision policies from observational data while accounting for possible unobserved confounding in the data-generating process. Unlike previous approaches that assume unconfoundedness, i. e. , no unobserved confounders affected both treatment assignment and outcomes, we calibrate policy learning for realistic violations of this unverifiable assumption with uncertainty sets motivated by sensitivity analysis in causal inference. Our framework for confounding-robust policy improvement optimizes the minimax regret of a candidate policy against a baseline or reference "status quo" policy, over an uncertainty set around nominal propensity weights. We prove that if the uncertainty set is well-specified, robust policy learning can do no worse than the baseline, and only improve if the data supports it. We characterize the adversarial subproblem and use efficient algorithmic solutions to optimize over parametrized spaces of decision policies such as logistic treatment assignment. We assess our methods on synthetic data and a large clinical trial, demonstrating that confounded selection can hinder policy learning and lead to unwarranted harm, while our robust approach guarantees safety and focuses on well-evidenced improvement.

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Removing Hidden Confounding by Experimental Grounding

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Aahlad Manas Puli
  • Uri Shalit

Observational data is increasingly used as a means for making individual-level causal predictions and intervention recommendations. The foremost challenge of causal inference from observational data is hidden confounding, whose presence cannot be tested in data and can invalidate any causal conclusion. Experimental data does not suffer from confounding but is usually limited in both scope and scale. We introduce a novel method of using limited experimental data to correct the hidden confounding in causal effect models trained on larger observational data, even if the observational data does not fully overlap with the experimental data. Our method makes strictly weaker assumptions than existing approaches, and we prove conditions under which it yields a consistent estimator. We demonstrate our method's efficacy using real-world data from a large educational experiment.

ICML Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Residual Unfairness in Fair Machine Learning from Prejudiced Data

  • Nathan Kallus
  • Angela Zhou

Recent work in fairness in machine learning has proposed adjusting for fairness by equalizing accuracy metrics across groups and has also studied how datasets affected by historical prejudices may lead to unfair decision policies. We connect these lines of work and study the residual unfairness that arises when a fairness-adjusted predictor is not actually fair on the target population due to systematic censoring of training data by existing biased policies. This scenario is particularly common in the same applications where fairness is a concern. We characterize theoretically the impact of such censoring on standard fairness metrics for binary classifiers and provide criteria for when residual unfairness may or may not appear. We prove that, under certain conditions, fairness-adjusted classifiers will in fact induce residual unfairness that perpetuates the same injustices, against the same groups, that biased the data to begin with, thus showing that even state-of-the-art fair machine learning can have a "bias in, bias out" property. When certain benchmark data is available, we show how sample reweighting can estimate and adjust fairness metrics while accounting for censoring. We use this to study the case of Stop, Question, and Frisk (SQF) and demonstrate that attempting to adjust for fairness perpetuates the same injustices that the policy is infamous for.

ICML Conference 2017 Conference Paper

Recursive Partitioning for Personalization using Observational Data

  • Nathan Kallus

We study the problem of learning to choose from $m$ discrete treatment options (e. g. , news item or medical drug) the one with best causal effect for a particular instance (e. g. , user or patient) where the training data consists of passive observations of covariates, treatment, and the outcome of the treatment. The standard approach to this problem is regress and compare: split the training data by treatment, fit a regression model in each split, and, for a new instance, predict all $m$ outcomes and pick the best. By reformulating the problem as a single learning task rather than $m$ separate ones, we propose a new approach based on recursively partitioning the data into regimes where different treatments are optimal. We extend this approach to an optimal partitioning approach that finds a globally optimal partition, achieving a compact, interpretable, and impactful personalization model. We develop new tools for validating and evaluating personalization models on observational data and use these to demonstrate the power of our novel approaches in a personalized medicine and a job training application.

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