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Matthew Cleaveland

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3 papers

2 author rows

AAAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Conformal Prediction Regions for Time Series Using Linear Complementarity Programming

Matthew Cleaveland
Insup Lee
George J. Pappas
Lars Lindemann

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction regions. In fact, to obtain prediction regions over T time steps with confidence 1--delta, previous works require that each individual prediction region is valid with confidence 1--delta/T. We propose an optimization-based method for reducing this conservatism to enable long horizon planning and verification when using learning-enabled time series predictors. Instead of considering prediction errors individually at each time step, we consider a parameterized prediction error over multiple time steps. By optimizing the parameters over an additional dataset, we find prediction regions that are not conservative. We show that this problem can be cast as a mixed integer linear complementarity program (MILCP), which we then relax into a linear complementarity program (LCP). Additionally, we prove that the relaxed LP has the same optimal cost as the original MILCP. Finally, we demonstrate the efficacy of our method on case studies using pedestrian trajectory predictors and F16 fighter jet altitude predictors.

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IROS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Learning Enabled Fast Planning and Control in Dynamic Environments with Intermittent Information

Matthew Cleaveland
Esen Yel
Yiannis Kantaros
Insup Lee 0001
Nicola Bezzo

This paper addresses a safe planning and control problem for mobile robots operating in communication- and sensor-limited dynamic environments. In this case the robots cannot sense the objects around them and must instead rely on intermittent, external information about the environment, as e. g. , in underwater applications. The challenge in this case is that the robots must plan using only this stale data, while accounting for any noise in the data or uncertainty in the environment. To address this challenge we propose a compositional technique which leverages neural networks to quickly plan and control a robot through crowded and dynamic environments using only intermittent information. Specifically, our tool uses reachability analysis and potential fields to train a neural network that is capable of generating safe control actions. We demonstrate our technique both in simulation with an underwater vehicle crossing a crowded shipping channel and with real experiments with ground vehicles in communication-and sensor-limited environments.

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AIJ Journal 2022 Journal Article

Risk verification of stochastic systems with neural network controllers

Matthew Cleaveland
Lars Lindemann
Radoslav Ivanov
George J. Pappas

Motivated by the fragility of neural network (NN) controllers in safety-critical applications, we present a data-driven framework for verifying the risk of stochastic dynamical systems with NN controllers. Given a stochastic control system, an NN controller, and a specification equipped with a notion of trace robustness (e. g. , constraint functions or signal temporal logic), we collect trajectories from the system that may or may not satisfy the specification. In particular, each of the trajectories produces a robustness value that indicates how well (severely) the specification is satisfied (violated). We then compute risk metrics over these robustness values to estimate the risk that the NN controller will not satisfy the specification. We are further interested in quantifying the difference in risk between two systems, and we show how the risk estimated from a nominal system can provide an upper bound the risk of a perturbed version of the system. In particular, the tightness of this bound depends on the closeness of the systems in terms of the closeness of their system trajectories. For Lipschitz continuous and incrementally input-to-state stable systems, we show how to exactly quantify system closeness with varying degrees of conservatism, while we estimate system closeness for more general systems from data in our experiments. We demonstrate our risk verification approach on two case studies, an underwater vehicle and an F1/10 autonomous car.

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