Mathias Drton

UAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Causal Discovery for Linear Non-Gaussian Models with Disjoint Cycles

• Mathias Drton
• Marina Garrote-López
• Niko Nikov
• Elina Robeva
• Y. Samuel Wang

The paradigm of linear structural equation modeling readily allows one to incorporate causal feedback loops in the model specification. These appear as directed cycles in the common graphical representation of the models. However, the presence of cycles entails difficulties such as the fact that models need no longer be characterized by conditional independence relations. As a result, learning cyclic causal structures remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we offer new insights on this problem in the context of linear non-Gaussian models. First, we precisely characterize when two directed graphs determine the same linear non-Gaussian model. Next, we take up a setting of cycle-disjoint graphs, for which we are able to show that simple quadratic and cubic polynomial relations among low-order moments of a non-Gaussian distribution allow one to locate source cycles. Complementing this with a strategy of decorrelating cycles and multivariate regression allows one to infer a block-topological order among the directed cycles, which leads to a consistent and computationally efficient algorithm for learning causal structures with disjoint cycles.

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Causal Effect Identification in lvLiNGAM from Higher-Order Cumulants

• Daniele Tramontano
• Yaroslav Kivva
• Saber Salehkaleybar
• Negar Kiyavash
• Mathias Drton

This paper investigates causal effect identification in latent variable Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Models (lvLiNGAM) using higher-order cumulants, addressing two prominent setups that are challenging in the presence of latent confounding: (1) a single proxy variable that may causally influence the treatment and (2) underspecified instrumental variable cases where fewer instruments exist than treatments. We prove that causal effects are identifiable with a single proxy or instrument and provide corresponding estimation methods. Experimental results demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of our approaches compared to existing methods, advancing the theoretical and practical understanding of causal inference in linear systems with latent confounders.

UAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Nonlinear Causal Discovery for Grouped Data

• Konstantin Göbler
• Tobias Windisch
• Mathias Drton

Inferring cause-effect relationships from observational data has gained significant attention in recent years, but most methods are limited to scalar random variables. In many important domains, including neuroscience, psychology, social science, and industrial manufacturing, the causal units of interest are groups of variables rather than individual scalar measurements. Motivated by these applications, we extend nonlinear additive noise models to handle random vectors, establishing a two-step approach for causal graph learning: First, infer the causal order among random vectors. Second, perform model selection to identify the best graph consistent with this order. We introduce effective and novel solutions for both steps in the vector case, demonstrating strong performance in simulations. Finally, we apply our method to real-world assembly line data with partial knowledge of causal ordering among variable groups.

ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Causal Effect Identification in LiNGAM Models with Latent Confounders

• Daniele Tramontano
• Yaroslav Kivva
• Saber Salehkaleybar
• Mathias Drton
• Negar Kiyavash

We study the generic identifiability of causal effects in linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAM) with latent variables. We consider the problem in two main settings: When the causal graph is known a priori, and when it is unknown. In both settings, we provide a complete graphical characterization of the identifiable direct or total causal effects among observed variables. Moreover, we propose efficient algorithms to certify the graphical conditions. Finally, we propose an adaptation of the reconstruction independent component analysis (RICA) algorithm that estimates the causal effects from the observational data given the causal graph. Experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed method in estimating the causal effects.

JMLR Journal 2023 Journal Article

Causal Discovery with Unobserved Confounding and Non-Gaussian Data

• Y. Samuel Wang
• Mathias Drton

We consider recovering causal structure from multivariate observational data. We assume the data arise from a linear structural equation model (SEM) in which the idiosyncratic errors are allowed to be dependent in order to capture possible latent confounding. Each SEM can be represented by a graph where vertices represent observed variables, directed edges represent direct causal effects, and bidirected edges represent dependence among error terms. Specifically, we assume that the true model corresponds to a bow-free acyclic path diagram; i.e., a graph that has at most one edge between any pair of nodes and is acyclic in the directed part. We show that when the errors are non-Gaussian, the exact causal structure encoded by such a graph, and not merely an equivalence class, can be recovered from observational data. The method we propose for this purpose uses estimates of suitable moments, but, in contrast to previous results, does not require specifying the number of latent variables a priori. We also characterize the output of our procedure when the assumptions are violated and the true graph is acyclic, but not bow-free. We illustrate the effectiveness of our procedure in simulations and an application to an ecology data set. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2023. ( edit, beta )

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Unpaired Multi-Domain Causal Representation Learning

• Nils Sturma
• Chandler Squires
• Mathias Drton
• Caroline Uhler

The goal of causal representation learning is to find a representation of data that consists of causally related latent variables. We consider a setup where one has access to data from multiple domains that potentially share a causal representation. Crucially, observations in different domains are assumed to be unpaired, that is, we only observe the marginal distribution in each domain but not their joint distribution. In this paper, we give sufficient conditions for identifiability of the joint distribution and the shared causal graph in a linear setup. Identifiability holds if we can uniquely recover the joint distribution and the shared causal representation from the marginal distributions in each domain. We transform our results into a practical method to recover the shared latent causal graph.

UAI Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Learning linear non-Gaussian polytree models

• Daniele Tramontano
• Anthea Monod
• Mathias Drton

In the context of graphical causal discovery, we adapt the versatile framework of linear non-Gaussian acyclic models (LiNGAMs) to propose new algorithms to efficiently learn graphs that are polytrees. Our approach combines the Chow–Liu algorithm, which first learns the undirected tree structure, with novel schemes to orient the edges. The orientation schemes assess algebraic relations among moments of the data-generating distribution and are computationally inexpensive. We establish high-dimensional consistency results for our approach and compare different algorithmic versions in numerical experiments.

UAI Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Confidence in causal discovery with linear causal models

• David Strieder
• Tobias Freidling
• Stefan Haffner
• Mathias Drton

Structural causal models postulate noisy functional relations among a set of interacting variables. The causal structure underlying each such model is naturally represented by a directed graph whose edges indicate for each variable which other variables it causally depends upon. Under a number of different model assumptions, it has been shown that this causal graph and, thus also, causal effects are identifiable from mere observational data. For these models, practical algorithms have been devised to learn the graph. Moreover, when the graph is known, standard techniques may be used to give estimates and confidence intervals for causal effects. We argue, however, that a two-step method that first learns a graph and then treats the graph as known yields confidence intervals that are overly optimistic and can drastically fail to account for the uncertain causal structure. To address this issue we lay out a framework based on test inversion that allows us to give confidence regions for total causal effects that capture both sources of uncertainty: causal structure and numerical size of nonzero effects. Our ideas are developed in the context of bivariate linear causal models with homoscedastic errors, but as we exemplify they are generalizable to larger systems as well as other settings such as, in particular, linear non-Gaussian models.

UAI Conference 2020 Conference Paper

Structure Learning for Cyclic Linear Causal Models

• Carlos Améndola
• Philipp Dettling
• Mathias Drton
• Federica Onori
• Jun Wu

We consider the problem of structure learning for linear causal models based on observational data. We treat models given by possibly cyclic mixed graphs, which allow for feedback loops and effects of latent confounders. Generalizing related work on bow-free acyclic graphs, we assume that the underlying graph is simple. This entails that any two observed variables can be related through at most one direct causal effect and that (confounding-induced) correlation between error terms in structural equations occurs only in absence of direct causal effects. We show that, despite new subtleties in the cyclic case, the considered simple cyclic models are of expected dimension and that a previously considered criterion for distributional equivalence of bow-free acyclic graphs has an analogue in the cyclic case. Our result on model dimension justifies in particular score-based methods for structure learning of linear Gaussian mixed graph models, which we implement via greedy search.

JMLR Journal 2019 Journal Article

Generalized Score Matching for Non-Negative Data

• Shiqing Yu
• Mathias Drton
• Ali Shojaie

A common challenge in estimating parameters of probability density functions is the intractability of the normalizing constant. While in such cases maximum likelihood estimation may be implemented using numerical integration, the approach becomes computationally intensive. The score matching method of Hyvärinen (2005) avoids direct calculation of the normalizing constant and yields closed-form estimates for exponential families of continuous distributions over $\mathbb{R}^m$. Hyvärinen (2007) extended the approach to distributions supported on the non-negative orthant, $\mathbb{R}_+^m$. In this paper, we give a generalized form of score matching for non-negative data that improves estimation efficiency. As an example, we consider a general class of pairwise interaction models. Addressing an overlooked inexistence problem, we generalize the regularized score matching method of Lin et al. (2016) and improve its theoretical guarantees for non-negative Gaussian graphical models. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2019. ( edit, beta )

NeurIPS Conference 2018 Conference Paper

Algebraic tests of general Gaussian latent tree models

• Dennis Leung
• Mathias Drton

We consider general Gaussian latent tree models in which the observed variables are not restricted to be leaves of the tree. Extending related recent work, we give a full semi-algebraic description of the set of covariance matrices of any such model. In other words, we find polynomial constraints that characterize when a matrix is the covariance matrix of a distribution in a given latent tree model. However, leveraging these constraints to test a given such model is often complicated by the number of constraints being large and by singularities of individual polynomials, which may invalidate standard approximations to relevant probability distributions. Illustrating with the star tree, we propose a new testing methodology that circumvents singularity issues by trading off some statistical estimation efficiency and handles cases with many constraints through recent advances on Gaussian approximation for maxima of sums of high-dimensional random vectors. Our test avoids the need to maximize the possibly multimodal likelihood function of such models and is applicable to models with larger number of variables. These points are illustrated in numerical experiments.

JMLR Journal 2013 Journal Article

PC Algorithm for Nonparanormal Graphical Models

• Naftali Harris
• Mathias Drton

The PC algorithm uses conditional independence tests for model selection in graphical modeling with acyclic directed graphs. In Gaussian models, tests of conditional independence are typically based on Pearson correlations, and high-dimensional consistency results have been obtained for the PC algorithm in this setting. Analyzing the error propagation from marginal to partial correlations, we prove that high-dimensional consistency carries over to a broader class of Gaussian copula or nonparanormal models when using rank-based measures of correlation. For graph sequences with bounded degree, our consistency result is as strong as prior Gaussian results. In simulations, the `Rank PC' algorithm works as well as the `Pearson PC' algorithm for normal data and considerably better for non-normal data, all the while incurring a negligible increase of computation time. While our interest is in the PC algorithm, the presented analysis of error propagation could be applied to other algorithms that test the vanishing of low-order partial correlations. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2013. ( edit, beta )

NeurIPS Conference 2012 Conference Paper

Nonparametric Reduced Rank Regression

• Rina Foygel
• Michael Horrell
• Mathias Drton
• John Lafferty

We propose an approach to multivariate nonparametric regression that generalizes reduced rank regression for linear models. An additive model is estimated for each dimension of a $q$-dimensional response, with a shared $p$-dimensional predictor variable. To control the complexity of the model, we employ a functional form of the Ky-Fan or nuclear norm, resulting in a set of function estimates that have low rank. Backfitting algorithms are derived and justified using a nonparametric form of the nuclear norm subdifferential. Oracle inequalities on excess risk are derived that exhibit the scaling behavior of the procedure in the high dimensional setting. The methods are illustrated on gene expression data.

NeurIPS Conference 2010 Conference Paper

Extended Bayesian Information Criteria for Gaussian Graphical Models

• Rina Foygel
• Mathias Drton

Gaussian graphical models with sparsity in the inverse covariance matrix are of significant interest in many modern applications. For the problem of recovering the graphical structure, information criteria provide useful optimization objectives for algorithms searching through sets of graphs or for selection of tuning parameters of other methods such as the graphical lasso, which is a likelihood penalization technique. In this paper we establish the asymptotic consistency of an extended Bayesian information criterion for Gaussian graphical models in a scenario where both the number of variables p and the sample size n grow. Compared to earlier work on the regression case, our treatment allows for growth in the number of non-zero parameters in the true model, which is necessary in order to cover connected graphs. We demonstrate the performance of this criterion on simulated data when used in conjuction with the graphical lasso, and verify that the criterion indeed performs better than either cross-validation or the ordinary Bayesian information criterion when p and the number of non-zero parameters q both scale with n.

JMLR Journal 2009 Journal Article

Computing Maximum Likelihood Estimates in Recursive Linear Models with Correlated Errors

• Mathias Drton
• Michael Eichler
• Thomas S. Richardson

In recursive linear models, the multivariate normal joint distribution of all variables exhibits a dependence structure induced by a recursive (or acyclic) system of linear structural equations. These linear models have a long tradition and appear in seemingly unrelated regressions, structural equation modelling, and approaches to causal inference. They are also related to Gaussian graphical models via a classical representation known as a path diagram. Despite the models' long history, a number of problems remain open. In this paper, we address the problem of computing maximum likelihood estimates in the subclass of 'bow-free' recursive linear models. The term 'bow-free' refers to the condition that the errors for variables i and j be uncorrelated if variable i occurs in the structural equation for variable j. We introduce a new algorithm, termed Residual Iterative Conditional Fitting (RICF), that can be implemented using only least squares computations. In contrast to existing algorithms, RICF has clear convergence properties and yields exact maximum likelihood estimates after the first iteration whenever the MLE is available in closed form. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2009. ( edit, beta )

UAI Conference 2009 Conference Paper

Robust Graphical Modeling with t-Distributions

• Michael Finegold
• Mathias Drton

Graphical Gaussian models have proven to be useful tools for exploring network structures based on multivariate data. Applications to studies of gene expression have generated substantial interest in these models, and resulting recent progress includes the development of fitting methodology involving penalization of the likelihood function. In this paper we advocate the use of the multivariate t and related distributions for more robust inference of graphs. In particular, we demonstrate that penalized likelihood inference combined with an application of the EM algorithm provides a simple and computationally efficient approach to model selection in the t-distribution case.

JMLR Journal 2008 Journal Article

Graphical Methods for Efficient Likelihood Inference in Gaussian Covariance Models

• Mathias Drton
• Thomas S. Richardson

In graphical modelling, a bi-directed graph encodes marginal independences among random variables that are identified with the vertices of the graph. We show how to transform a bi-directed graph into a maximal ancestral graph that (i) represents the same independence structure as the original bi-directed graph, and (ii) minimizes the number of arrowheads among all ancestral graphs satisfying (i). Here the number of arrowheads of an ancestral graph is the number of directed edges plus twice the number of bi-directed edges. In Gaussian models, this construction can be used for more efficient iterative maximization of the likelihood function and to determine when maximum likelihood estimates are equal to empirical counterparts. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2008. ( edit, beta )

UAI Conference 2004 Conference Paper

Iterative Conditional Fitting for Gaussian Ancestral Graph Models

• Mathias Drton
• Thomas S. Richardson 0001

Ancestral graph models, introduced by Richardson and Spirtes (2002), generalize both Markov random fields and Bayesian networks to a class of graphs with a global Markov property that is closed under conditioning and marginalization. By design, ancestral graphs encode precisely the conditional independence structures that can arise from Bayesian networks with selection and unobserved (hidden/latent) variables. Thus, ancestral graph models provide a potentially very useful framework for exploratory model selection when unobserved variables might be involved in the data-generating process but no particular hidden structure can be specified. In this paper, we present the Iterative Conditional Fitting (ICF) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation in Gaussian ancestral graph models. The name reflects that in each step of the procedure a conditional distribution is estimated, subject to constraints, while a marginal distribution is held fixed. This approach is in duality to the well-known Iterative Proportional Fitting algorithm, in which marginal distributions are fitted while conditional distributions are held fixed.

UAI Conference 2003 Conference Paper

A New Algorithm for Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Gaussian Graphical Models for Marginal Independence

• Mathias Drton
• Thomas S. Richardson 0001