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Mark Goldstein

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10 papers

2 author rows

ICLR Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Time After Time: Deep-Q Effect Estimation for Interventions on When and What to do

Yoav Wald
Mark Goldstein
Yonathan Efroni
Wouter A. C. van Amsterdam
Rajesh Ranganath

Problems in fields such as healthcare, robotics, and finance requires reasoning about the value both of what decision or action to take and when to take it. The prevailing hope is that artificial intelligence will support such decisions by estimating the causal effect of policies such as how to treat patients or how to allocate resources over time. However, existing methods for estimating the effect of a policy struggle with \emph{irregular time}. They either discretize time, or disregard the effect of timing policies. We present a new deep-Q algorithm that estimates the effect of both when and what to do called Earliest Disagreement Q-Evaluation (EDQ). EDQ makes use of recursion for the Q-function that is compatible with flexible sequence models, such as transformers. EDQ provides accurate estimates under standard assumptions. We validate the approach through experiments on survival time and tumor growth tasks.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Contrasting with Symile: Simple Model-Agnostic Representation Learning for Unlimited Modalities

Adriel Saporta
Aahlad Puli
Mark Goldstein
Rajesh Ranganath

Contrastive learning methods, such as CLIP, leverage naturally paired data—for example, images and their corresponding text captions—to learn general representations that transfer efficiently to downstream tasks. While such approaches are generally applied to two modalities, domains such as robotics, healthcare, and video need to support many types of data at once. We show that the pairwise application of CLIP fails to capture joint information between modalities, thereby limiting the quality of the learned representations. To address this issue, we present Symile, a simple contrastive learning approach that captures higher-order information between any number of modalities. Symile provides a flexible, architecture-agnostic objective for learning modality-specific representations. To develop Symile's objective, we derive a lower bound on total correlation, and show that Symile representations for any set of modalities form a sufficient statistic for predicting the remaining modalities. Symile outperforms pairwise CLIP, even with modalities missing in the data, on cross-modal classification and retrieval across several experiments including on an original multilingual dataset of 33M image, text and audio samples and a clinical dataset of chest X-rays, electrocardiograms, and laboratory measurements. All datasets and code used in this work are publicly available at https: //github. com/rajesh-lab/symile.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Probabilistic Forecasting with Stochastic Interpolants and Föllmer Processes

Yifan Chen
Mark Goldstein
Mengjian Hua
Michael Samuel Albergo
Nicholas Matthew Boffi
Eric Vanden-Eijnden

We propose a framework for probabilistic forecasting of dynamical systems based on generative modeling. Given observations of the system state over time, we formulate the forecasting problem as sampling from the conditional distribution of the future system state given its current state. To this end, we leverage the framework of stochastic interpolants, which facilitates the construction of a generative model between an arbitrary base distribution and the target. We design a fictitious, non-physical stochastic dynamics that takes as initial condition the current system state and produces as output a sample from the target conditional distribution in finite time and without bias. This process therefore maps a point mass centered at the current state onto a probabilistic ensemble of forecasts. We prove that the drift coefficient entering the stochastic differential equation (SDE) achieving this task is non-singular, and that it can be learned efficiently by square loss regression over the time-series data. We show that the drift and the diffusion coefficients of this SDE can be adjusted after training, and that a specific choice that minimizes the impact of the estimation error gives a Föllmer process. We highlight the utility of our approach on several complex, high-dimensional forecasting problems, including stochastically forced Navier-Stokes and video prediction on the KTH and CLEVRER datasets. The code is available at https: //github. com/interpolants/forecasting.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Stochastic Interpolants with Data-Dependent Couplings

Michael Samuel Albergo
Mark Goldstein
Nicholas Matthew Boffi
Rajesh Ranganath
Eric Vanden-Eijnden

Generative models inspired by dynamical transport of measure – such as flows and diffusions – construct a continuous-time map between two probability densities. Conventionally, one of these is the target density, only accessible through samples, while the other is taken as a simple base density that is data-agnostic. In this work, using the framework of stochastic interpolants, we formalize how to couple the base and the target densities, whereby samples from the base are computed conditionally given samples from the target in a way that is different from (but does not preclude) incorporating information about class labels or continuous embeddings. This enables us to construct dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models. We show that these transport maps can be learned by solving a simple square loss regression problem analogous to the standard independent setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of constructing dependent couplings in practice through experiments in super-resolution and in-painting. The code is available at https: //github. com/interpolants/couplings.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

What's the score? Automated Denoising Score Matching for Nonlinear Diffusions

Raghav Singhal
Mark Goldstein
Rajesh Ranganath

Reversing a diffusion process by learning its score forms the heart of diffusion-based generative modeling and for estimating properties of scientific systems. The diffusion processes that are tractable center on linear processes with a Gaussian stationary distribution, limiting the kinds of models that can be built to those that target a Gaussian prior or more generally limits the kinds of problems that can be generically solved to those that have conditionally linear score functions. In this work, we introduce a family of tractable denoising score matching objectives, called local-DSM, built using local increments of the diffusion process. We show how local-DSM melded with Taylor expansions enables automated training and score estimation with nonlinear diffusion processes. To demonstrate these ideas, we use automated-DSM to train generative models using non-Gaussian priors on challenging low dimensional distributions and the CIFAR10 image dataset. Additionally, we use the automated-DSM to learn the scores for nonlinear processes studied in statistical physics.

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ICLR Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Where to Diffuse, How to Diffuse, and How to Get Back: Automated Learning for Multivariate Diffusions

Raghav Singhal
Mark Goldstein
Rajesh Ranganath

Diffusion-based generative models (DBGMs) perturb data to a target noise distribution and reverse this process to generate samples. The choice of noising process, or inference diffusion process, affects both likelihoods and sample quality. For example, extending the inference process with auxiliary variables leads to improved sample quality. While there are many such multivariate diffusions to explore, each new one requires significant model-specific analysis, hindering rapid prototyping and evaluation. In this work, we study Multivariate Diffusion Models (MDMs). For any number of auxiliary variables, we provide a recipe for maximizing a lower-bound on the MDMs likelihood without requiring any model-specific analysis. We then demonstrate how to parameterize the diffusion for a specified target noise distribution; these two points together enable optimizing the inference diffusion process. Optimizing the diffusion expands easy experimentation from just a few well-known processes to an automatic search over all linear diffusions. To demonstrate these ideas, we introduce two new specific diffusions as well as learn a diffusion process on the MNIST, CIFAR10, and ImageNet32 datasets. We show learned MDMs match or surpass bits-per-dims (BPDs) relative to fixed choices of diffusions for a given dataset and model architecture.

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CLeaR Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Learning Invariant Representations with Missing Data

Mark Goldstein
Joern-Henrik Jacobsen
Olina Chau
Adriel Saporta
Aahlad Manas Puli
Rajesh Ranganath
Andrew Miller

Spurious correlations, or *shortcuts*, allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test populations. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving the correlation-inducing *nuisance* variable have guarantees on their test performance. However, enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. But nuisances such as demographics or image background labels are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. In this work, we derive the missing-mmd estimator used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, missing-mmds enable improvements in test performance similar to those achieved by using fully-observed data.

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NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Inverse-Weighted Survival Games

Xintian Han
Mark Goldstein
Aahlad Puli
Thomas Wies
Adler Perotte
Rajesh Ranganath

Deep models trained through maximum likelihood have achieved state-of-the-art results for survival analysis. Despite this training scheme, practitioners evaluate models under other criteria, such as binary classification losses at a chosen set of time horizons, e. g. Brier score (BS) and Bernoulli log likelihood (BLL). Models trained with maximum likelihood may have poor BS or BLL since maximum likelihood does not directly optimize these criteria. Directly optimizing criteria like BS requires inverse-weighting by the censoring distribution. However, estimating the censoring model under these metrics requires inverse-weighting by the failure distribution. The objective for each model requires the other, but neither are known. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce Inverse-Weighted Survival Games. In these games, objectives for each model are built from re-weighted estimates featuring the other model, where the latter is held fixed during training. When the loss is proper, we show that the games always have the true failure and censoring distributions as a stationary point. This means models in the game do not leave the correct distributions once reached. We construct one case where this stationary point is unique. We show that these games optimize BS on simulations and then apply these principles on real world cancer and critically-ill patient data.

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ICML Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Understanding Failures in Out-of-Distribution Detection with Deep Generative Models

Lily H. Zhang
Mark Goldstein
Rajesh Ranganath

Deep generative models (DGMs) seem a natural fit for detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs, but such models have been shown to assign higher probabilities or densities to OOD images than images from the training distribution. In this work, we explain why this behavior should be attributed to model misestimation. We first prove that no method can guarantee performance beyond random chance without assumptions on which out-distributions are relevant. We then interrogate the typical set hypothesis, the claim that relevant out-distributions can lie in high likelihood regions of the data distribution, and that OOD detection should be defined based on the data distribution’s typical set. We highlight the consequences implied by assuming support overlap between in- and out-distributions, as well as the arbitrariness of the typical set for OOD detection. Our results suggest that estimation error is a more plausible explanation than the misalignment between likelihood-based OOD detection and out-distributions of interest, and we illustrate how even minimal estimation error can lead to OOD detection failures, yielding implications for future work in deep generative modeling and OOD detection.

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NeurIPS Conference 2020 Conference Paper

X-CAL: Explicit Calibration for Survival Analysis

Mark Goldstein
Xintian Han
Aahlad Puli
Adler Perotte
Rajesh Ranganath

Survival analysis models the distribution of time until an event of interest, such as discharge from the hospital or admission to the ICU. When a model’s predicted number of events within any time interval is similar to the observed number, it is called well-calibrated. A survival model’s calibration can be measured using, for instance, distributional calibration (D-CALIBRATION) [Haider et al. , 2020] which computes the squared difference between the observed and predicted number of events within different time intervals. Classically, calibration is addressed in post-training analysis. We develop explicit calibration (X-CAL), which turns D-CALIBRATION into a differentiable objective that can be used in survival modeling alongside maximum likelihood estimation and other objectives. X-CAL allows us to directly optimize calibration and strike a desired trade-off between predictive power and calibration. In our experiments, we fit a variety of shallow and deep models on simulated data, a survival dataset based on MNIST, on length-of-stay prediction using MIMIC-III data, and on brain cancer data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. We show that the models we study can be miscalibrated. We give experimental evidence on these datasets that X-CAL improves D-CALIBRATION without a large decrease in concordance or likelihood.

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