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Mardavij Roozbehani

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AAAI Conference 2026 Conference Paper

VITA: Variational Pretraining of Transformers for Climate-Robust Crop Yield Forecasting

Adib Hasan
Mardavij Roozbehani
Munther A. Dahleh

Accurate crop yield forecasting is essential for global food security. However, current AI models systematically underperform when yields deviate from historical trends. We attribute this to the lack of rich, physically grounded datasets directly linking atmospheric states to yields. To address this, we introduce VITA (Variational Inference Transformer for Asymmetric Data), a variational pretraining framework that learns representations from large satellite-based weather datasets and transfers to the ground-based limited measurements available for yield prediction. VITA is trained using detailed meteorological variables as proxy targets during pretraining and learns to predict latent atmospheric states under a seasonality-aware sinusoidal prior. This allows the model to be fine-tuned using limited weather statistics during deployment. Applied to 763 counties in the US Corn Belt, VITA achieves state-of-the-art performance in predicting corn and soybean yields across all evaluation scenarios, particularly during extreme years, with statistically significant improvements (paired t-test, p < 0.0001). Importantly, VITA outperforms prior frameworks like GNN-RNN without soil data, and larger foundational models (e.g., Chronos-Bolt) with less compute, making it practical for real-world use, especially in data-scarce regions. This work highlights how domain-aware AI design can overcome data limitations and support resilient agricultural forecasting in a changing climate.

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AAAI Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Sample Efficient Reinforcement Learning with Partial Dynamics Knowledge

Meshal Alharbi
Mardavij Roozbehani
Munther Dahleh

The problem of sample complexity of online reinforcement learning is often studied in the literature without taking into account any partial knowledge about the system dynamics that could potentially accelerate the learning process. In this paper, we study the sample complexity of online Q-learning methods when some prior knowledge about the dynamics is available or can be learned efficiently. We focus on systems that evolve according to an additive disturbance model of the form S_{h+1} = ƒ(S_h, A_h) + W_h, where ƒ represents the underlying system dynamics, and W_h are unknown disturbances independent of states and actions. In the setting of finite episodic Markov decision processes with S states, A actions, and episode length H, we present an optimistic Q-learning algorithm that achieves Õ(Poly(H)√T) regret under perfect knowledge of ƒ, where T is the total number of interactions with the system. This is in contrast to the typical Õ(Poly(H)√SAT) regret for existing Q-learning methods. Further, if only a noisy estimate ƒ_hat of ƒ is available, our method can learn an approximately optimal policy in a number of samples that is independent of the cardinalities of state and action spaces. The sub-optimality gap depends on the approximation error ƒ_hat − ƒ, as well as the Lipschitz constant of the corresponding optimal value function. Our approach does not require modeling of the transition probabilities and enjoys the same memory complexity as model-free methods.

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