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Marco Scutari

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4 papers

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CLeaR Conference 2026 Conference Paper

DAG Learning from Zero-Inflated Count Data Using Continuous Optimization

Noriaki Sato
Marco Scutari
Shuichi Kawano
Rui Yamaguchi
Seiya Imoto

We address network structure learning from zero-inflated count data by casting each node as a zero-inflated generalized linear model and optimizing a smooth, score-based objective under a directed acyclic graph constraint. Our Zero-Inflated Continuous Optimization (ZICO) approach uses node-wise likelihoods with canonical links and enforces acyclicity through a differentiable surrogate constraint combined with sparsity regularization. ZICO achieves superior performance with faster runtimes on simulated data. It also performs comparably to or better than common algorithms for reverse engineering gene regulatory networks. ZICO is fully vectorized and mini-batched, enabling learning on larger variable sets with practical runtimes in a wide range of domains.

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EAAI Journal 2024 Journal Article

Learning Bayesian networks with heterogeneous agronomic data sets via mixed-effect models and hierarchical clustering

Lorenzo Valleggi
Marco Scutari
Federico Mattia Stefanini

Maize, a crucial crop globally cultivated across vast regions, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America, occupies 197 million hectares as of 2021. Various statistical and machine learning models, including mixed-effect models, random coefficients models, random forests, and deep learning architectures, have been devised to predict maize yield. These models consider factors such as genotype, environment, genotype-environment interaction, and field management. However, the existing models often fall short of fully exploiting the complex network of causal relationships among these factors and the hierarchical structure inherent in agronomic data. This study introduces an innovative approach integrating random effects into Bayesian networks (BNs), leveraging their capacity to model causal and probabilistic relationships through directed acyclic graphs. Rooted in the linear mixed-effects models framework and tailored for hierarchical data, this novel approach demonstrates enhanced BN learning. Application to a real-world agronomic trial produces a model with improved interpretability, unveiling new causal connections. Notably, the proposed method significantly reduces the error rate in maize yield prediction from 28% to 17%. These results advocate for the preference of BNs in constructing practical decision support tools for hierarchical agronomic data, facilitating causal inference.

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TIME Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Analyzing Complex Systems with Cascades Using Continuous-Time Bayesian Networks

Alessandro Bregoli
Karin Rathsman
Marco Scutari
Fabio Stella
Søren Wengel Mogensen

Interacting systems of events may exhibit cascading behavior where events tend to be temporally clustered. While the cascades themselves may be obvious from the data, it is important to understand which states of the system trigger them. For this purpose, we propose a modeling framework based on continuous-time Bayesian networks (CTBNs) to analyze cascading behavior in complex systems. This framework allows us to describe how events propagate through the system and to identify likely sentry states, that is, system states that may lead to imminent cascading behavior. Moreover, CTBNs have a simple graphical representation and provide interpretable outputs, both of which are important when communicating with domain experts. We also develop new methods for knowledge extraction from CTBNs and we apply the proposed methodology to a data set of alarms in a large industrial system.

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AIIM Journal 2013 Journal Article

Identifying significant edges in graphical models of molecular networks

Marco Scutari
Radhakrishnan Nagarajan

Objective Modelling the associations from high-throughput experimental molecular data has provided unprecedented insights into biological pathways and signalling mechanisms. Graphical models and networks have especially proven to be useful abstractions in this regard. Ad hoc thresholds are often used in conjunction with structure learning algorithms to determine significant associations. The present study overcomes this limitation by proposing a statistically motivated approach for identifying significant associations in a network. Methods and materials A new method that identifies significant associations in graphical models by estimating the threshold minimising the L 1 norm between the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the observed edge confidences and those of its asymptotic counterpart is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated on popular synthetic data sets as well as publicly available experimental molecular data corresponding to gene and protein expression profiles. Results The improved performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated across the synthetic data sets using sensitivity, specificity and accuracy as performance metrics. The results are also demonstrated across varying sample sizes and three different structure learning algorithms with widely varying assumptions. In all cases, the proposed approach has specificity and accuracy close to 1, while sensitivity increases linearly in the logarithm of the sample size. The estimated threshold systematically outperforms common ad hoc ones in terms of sensitivity while maintaining comparable levels of specificity and accuracy. Networks from experimental data sets are reconstructed accurately with respect to the results from the original papers. Conclusion Current studies use structure learning algorithms in conjunction with ad hoc thresholds for identifying significant associations in graphical abstractions of biological pathways and signalling mechanisms. Such an ad hoc choice can have pronounced effect on attributing biological significance to the associations in the resulting network and possible downstream analysis. The statistically motivated approach presented in this study has been shown to outperform ad hoc thresholds and is expected to alleviate spurious conclusions of significant associations in such graphical abstractions.

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