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Manuel Rodriguez

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7 papers

1 author row

NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Finding Counterfactually Optimal Action Sequences in Continuous State Spaces

Stratis Tsirtsis
Manuel Rodriguez

Whenever a clinician reflects on the efficacy of a sequence of treatment decisions for a patient, they may try to identify critical time steps where, had they made different decisions, the patient's health would have improved. While recent methods at the intersection of causal inference and reinforcement learning promise to aid human experts, as the clinician above, to retrospectively analyze sequential decision making processes, they have focused on environments with finitely many discrete states. However, in many practical applications, the state of the environment is inherently continuous in nature. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap. We start by formally characterizing a sequence of discrete actions and continuous states using finite horizon Markov decision processes and a broad class of bijective structural causal models. Building upon this characterization, we formalize the problem of finding counterfactually optimal action sequences and show that, in general, we cannot expect to solve it in polynomial time. Then, we develop a search method based on the A* algorithm that, under a natural form of Lipschitz continuity of the environment’s dynamics, is guaranteed to return the optimal solution to the problem. Experiments on real clinical data show that our method is very efficient in practice, and it has the potential to offer interesting insights for sequential decision making tasks.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

Human-Aligned Calibration for AI-Assisted Decision Making

Nina Corvelo Benz
Manuel Rodriguez

Whenever a binary classifier is used to provide decision support, it typically provides both a label prediction and a confidence value. Then, the decision maker is supposed to use the confidence value to calibrate how much to trust the prediction. In this context, it has been often argued that the confidence value should correspond to a well calibrated estimate of the probability that the predicted label matches the ground truth label. However, multiple lines of empirical evidence suggest that decision makers have difficulties at developing a good sense on when to trust a prediction using these confidence values. In this paper, our goal is first to understand why and then investigate how to construct more useful confidence values. We first argue that, for a broad class of utility functions, there exists data distributions for which a rational decision maker is, in general, unlikely to discover the optimal decision policy using the above confidence values—an optimal decision maker would need to sometimes place more (less) trust on predictions with lower (higher) confidence values. However, we then show that, if the confidence values satisfy a natural alignment property with respect to the decision maker’s confidence on her own predictions, there always exists an optimal decision policy under which the level of trust the decision maker would need to place on predictions is monotone on the confidence values, facilitating its discoverability. Further, we show that multicalibration with respect to the decision maker’s confidence on her own prediction is a sufficient condition for alignment. Experiments on a real AI-assisted decision making scenario where a classifier provides decision support to human decision makers validate our theoretical results and suggest that alignment may lead to better decisions.

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NeurIPS Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Counterfactual Temporal Point Processes

Kimia Noorbakhsh
Manuel Rodriguez

Machine learning models based on temporal point processes are the state of the art in a wide variety of applications involving discrete events in continuous time. However, these models lack the ability to answer counterfactual questions, which are increasingly relevant as these models are being used to inform targeted interventions. In this work, our goal is to fill this gap. To this end, we first develop a causal model of thinning for temporal point processes that builds upon the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. This model satisfies a desirable counterfactual monotonicity condition, which is sufficient to identify counterfactual dynamics in the process of thinning. Then, given an observed realization of a temporal point process with a given intensity function, we develop a sampling algorithm that uses the above causal model of thinning and the superposition theorem to simulate counterfactual realizations of the temporal point process under a given alternative intensity function. Simulation experiments using synthetic and real epidemiological data show that the counterfactual realizations provided by our algorithm may give valuable insights to enhance targeted interventions.

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NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Counterfactual Explanations in Sequential Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Stratis Tsirtsis
Abir De
Manuel Rodriguez

Methods to find counterfactual explanations have predominantly focused on one-step decision making processes. In this work, we initiate the development of methods to find counterfactual explanations for decision making processes in which multiple, dependent actions are taken sequentially over time. We start by formally characterizing a sequence of actions and states using finite horizon Markov decision processes and the Gumbel-Max structural causal model. Building upon this characterization, we formally state the problem of finding counterfactual explanations for sequential decision making processes. In our problem formulation, the counterfactual explanation specifies an alternative sequence of actions differing in at most k actions from the observed sequence that could have led the observed process realization to a better outcome. Then, we introduce a polynomial time algorithm based on dynamic programming to build a counterfactual policy that is guaranteed to always provide the optimal counterfactual explanation on every possible realization of the counterfactual environment dynamics. We validate our algorithm using both synthetic and real data from cognitive behavioral therapy and show that the counterfactual explanations our algorithm finds can provide valuable insights to enhance sequential decision making under uncertainty.

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NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Differentiable Learning Under Triage

Nastaran Okati
Abir De
Manuel Rodriguez

Multiple lines of evidence suggest that predictive models may benefit from algorithmic triage. Under algorithmic triage, a predictive model does not predict all instances but instead defers some of them to human experts. However, the interplay between the prediction accuracy of the model and the human experts under algorithmic triage is not well understood. In this work, we start by formally characterizing under which circumstances a predictive model may benefit from algorithmic triage. In doing so, we also demonstrate that models trained for full automation may be suboptimal under triage. Then, given any model and desired level of triage, we show that the optimal triage policy is a deterministic threshold rule in which triage decisions are derived deterministically by thresholding the difference between the model and human errors on a per-instance level. Building upon these results, we introduce a practical gradient-based algorithm that is guaranteed to find a sequence of predictive models and triage policies of increasing performance. Experiments on a wide variety of supervised learning tasks using synthetic and real data from two important applications---content moderation and scientific discovery---illustrate our theoretical results and show that the models and triage policies provided by our gradient-based algorithm outperform those provided by several competitive baselines.

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YNICL Journal 2019 Journal Article

The organization of the basal ganglia functional connectivity network is non-linear in Parkinson's disease

Clara Rodriguez-Sabate
Ingrid Morales
Jesus N. Lorenzo
Manuel Rodriguez

The motor symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) have been linked to changes in the excitatory/inhibitory interactions of centers involved in the cortical-subcortical closed-loop circuits which connect basal ganglia (BG) and the brain cortex. This approach may explain some motor symptoms of PD but not others, which has driven the study of BG from new perspectives. Besides their cortical-subcortical linear circuits, BG have a number of subcortical circuits which directly or indirectly connect each BG with all the others. This suggests that BG may work as a complex network whose output is the result of massive functional interactions between all of their nuclei (decentralized network; DCN), more than the result of the linear excitatory/inhibitory interactions of the cortical-subcortical closed-loops. The aim of this work was to study BG as a DCN, and to test whether the DCN behavior of BG changes in PD. BG activity was recorded with MRI methods and their complex interactions were studied with a procedure based on multiple correspondence analysis, a data-driven multifactorial method which can work with non-linear multiple interactions. The functional connectivity of twenty parkinsonian patients and eighteen age-matched controls were studied during resting and when they were performing sequential hand movements. Seven functional configurations were identified in the control subjects during resting, and some of these interactions changed with motor activity. Five of the seven interactions found in control subjects changed in Parkinson's disease. The BG response to the motor task was also different in PD patients and controls. These data show the basal ganglia as a decentralized network where each region can perform multiple functions and each function is performed by multiple regions. This framework of BG interactions may provide new explanations concerning motor symptoms of PD which are not explained by current BG models.

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NeurIPS Conference 2017 Conference Paper

From Parity to Preference-based Notions of Fairness in Classification

Muhammad Bilal Zafar
Isabel Valera
Manuel Rodriguez
Krishna Gummadi
Adrian Weller

The adoption of automated, data-driven decision making in an ever expanding range of applications has raised concerns about its potential unfairness towards certain social groups. In this context, a number of recent studies have focused on defining, detecting, and removing unfairness from data-driven decision systems. However, the existing notions of fairness, based on parity (equality) in treatment or outcomes for different social groups, tend to be quite stringent, limiting the overall decision making accuracy. In this paper, we draw inspiration from the fair-division and envy-freeness literature in economics and game theory and propose preference-based notions of fairness -- given the choice between various sets of decision treatments or outcomes, any group of users would collectively prefer its treatment or outcomes, regardless of the (dis)parity as compared to the other groups. Then, we introduce tractable proxies to design margin-based classifiers that satisfy these preference-based notions of fairness. Finally, we experiment with a variety of synthetic and real-world datasets and show that preference-based fairness allows for greater decision accuracy than parity-based fairness.

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