Author name cluster

Mafalda Dias

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3 papers

2 author rows

NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

From Likelihood to Fitness: Improving Variant Effect Prediction in Protein and Genome Language Models

Charles W J Pugh
Paulina G. Nuñez-Valencia
Mafalda Dias
Jonathan Frazer

Generative models trained on natural sequences are increasingly used to predict the effects of genetic variation, enabling progress in therapeutic design, disease risk prediction, and synthetic biology. In the zero-shot setting, variant impact is estimated by comparing the likelihoods of sequences, under the assumption that likelihood serves as a proxy for fitness. However, this assumption often breaks down in practice: sequence likelihood reflects not only evolutionary fitness constraints, but also phylogenetic structure and sampling biases, especially as model capacity increases. We introduce Likelihood-Fitness Bridging (LFB), a simple and general strategy that improves variant effect prediction by averaging model scores across sequences subject to similar selective pressures. Assuming an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model of evolution, LFB can be viewed as a way to marginalize the effects of genetic drift, although its benefits appear to extend more broadly. LFB applies to existing protein and genomic language models without requiring retraining, and incurs only modest computational overhead. Evaluated on large-scale deep mutational scans and clinical benchmarks, LFB consistently improves predictive performance across model families and sizes. Notably, it reverses the performance plateau observed in larger protein language models, making the largest models the most accurate when combined with LFB. These results suggest that accounting for phylogenetic and sampling biases is essential to realizing the full potential of large sequence models in variant effect prediction.

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NeurIPS Conference 2023 Conference Paper

ProteinGym: Large-Scale Benchmarks for Protein Fitness Prediction and Design

Pascal Notin
Aaron Kollasch
Daniel Ritter
Lood van Niekerk
Steffanie Paul
Han Spinner
Nathan Rollins
Ada Shaw

Predicting the effects of mutations in proteins is critical to many applications, from understanding genetic disease to designing novel proteins to address our most pressing challenges in climate, agriculture and healthcare. Despite an increase in machine learning-based protein modeling methods, assessing their effectiveness is problematic due to the use of distinct, often contrived, experimental datasets and variable performance across different protein families. Addressing these challenges requires scale. To that end we introduce ProteinGym v1. 0, a large-scale and holistic set of benchmarks specifically designed for protein fitness prediction and design. It encompasses both a broad collection of over 250 standardized deep mutational scanning assays, spanning millions of mutated sequences, as well as curated clinical datasets providing high-quality expert annotations about mutation effects. We devise a robust evaluation framework that combines metrics for both fitness prediction and design, factors in known limitations of the underlying experimental methods, and covers both zero-shot and supervised settings. We report the performance of a diverse set of over 40 high-performing models from various subfields (eg. , mutation effects, inverse folding) into a unified benchmark. We open source the corresponding codebase, datasets, MSAs, structures, predictions and develop a user-friendly website that facilitates comparisons across all settings.

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ICML Conference 2022 Conference Paper

Tranception: Protein Fitness Prediction with Autoregressive Transformers and Inference-time Retrieval

Pascal Notin
Mafalda Dias
Jonathan Frazer
Javier Marchena-Hurtado
Aidan N. Gomez
Debora S. Marks
Yarin Gal

The ability to accurately model the fitness landscape of protein sequences is critical to a wide range of applications, from quantifying the effects of human variants on disease likelihood, to predicting immune-escape mutations in viruses and designing novel biotherapeutic proteins. Deep generative models of protein sequences trained on multiple sequence alignments have been the most successful approaches so far to address these tasks. The performance of these methods is however contingent on the availability of sufficiently deep and diverse alignments for reliable training. Their potential scope is thus limited by the fact many protein families are hard, if not impossible, to align. Large language models trained on massive quantities of non-aligned protein sequences from diverse families address these problems and show potential to eventually bridge the performance gap. We introduce Tranception, a novel transformer architecture leveraging autoregressive predictions and retrieval of homologous sequences at inference to achieve state-of-the-art fitness prediction performance. Given its markedly higher performance on multiple mutants, robustness to shallow alignments and ability to score indels, our approach offers significant gain of scope over existing approaches. To enable more rigorous model testing across a broader range of protein families, we develop ProteinGym – an extensive set of multiplexed assays of variant effects, substantially increasing both the number and diversity of assays compared to existing benchmarks.

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