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Lucas Mentch

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5 papers

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JMLR Journal 2022 Journal Article

Getting Better from Worse: Augmented Bagging and A Cautionary Tale of Variable Importance

Lucas Mentch
Siyu Zhou

As the size, complexity, and availability of data continues to grow, scientists are increasingly relying upon black-box learning algorithms that can often provide accurate predictions with minimal a priori model specifications. Tools like random forests have an established track record of off-the-shelf success and even offer various strategies for analyzing the underlying relationships among variables. Here, motivated by recent insights into random forest behavior, we introduce the simple idea of augmented bagging (AugBagg), a procedure that operates in an identical fashion to classical bagging and random forests, but which operates on a larger, augmented space containing additional randomly generated noise features. Surprisingly, we demonstrate that this simple act of including extra noise variables in the model can lead to dramatic improvements in out-of-sample predictive accuracy, sometimes outperforming even an optimally tuned traditional random forest. As a result, intuitive notions of variable importance based on improved model accuracy may be deeply flawed, as even purely random noise can routinely register as statistically significant. Numerous demonstrations on both real and synthetic data are provided along with a proposed solution. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2022. ( edit, beta )

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JMLR Journal 2022 Journal Article

Scalable and Efficient Hypothesis Testing with Random Forests

Tim Coleman
Wei Peng
Lucas Mentch

Throughout the last decade, random forests have established themselves as among the most accurate and popular supervised learning methods. While their black-box nature has made their mathematical analysis difficult, recent work has established important statistical properties like consistency and asymptotic normality by considering subsampling in lieu of bootstrapping. Though such results open the door to traditional inference procedures, all formal methods suggested thus far place severe restrictions on the testing framework and their computational overhead often precludes their practical scientific use. Here we propose a hypothesis test to formally assess feature significance, which uses permutation tests to circumvent computationally infeasible estimates of nuisance parameters. This test is intended to be analogous to the F-test for linear regression. We establish asymptotic validity of the test via exchangeability arguments and show that the test maintains high power with orders of magnitude fewer computations. Importantly, the procedure scales easily to big data settings where large training and testing sets may be employed, conducting statistically valid inference without the need to construct additional models. Simulations and applications to ecological data, where random forests have recently shown promise, are provided. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2022. ( edit, beta )

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JMLR Journal 2021 Journal Article

V-statistics and Variance Estimation

Zhengze Zhou
Lucas Mentch
Giles Hooker

As machine learning procedures become an increasingly popular modeling option among applied researchers, there has been a corresponding interest in developing valid tools for understanding their statistical properties and uncertainty. Tree-based ensembles like random forests remain one such popular option for which several important theoretical advances have been made in recent years by drawing upon a connection between their natural subsampled structure and the classical theory of $U$-statistics. Unfortunately, the procedures for estimating predictive variance resulting from these studies are plagued by severe bias and extreme computational overhead. Here, we argue that the root of these problems lies in the use of subsampling without replacement and that with-replacement subsamples, resulting in $V$-statistics, substantially alleviates these problems. We develop a general framework for analyzing the asymptotic behavior of $V$-statistics, demonstrating asymptotic normality under precise regularity conditions and establishing previously unreported connections to $U$-statistics. Importantly, these findings allow us to produce a natural and efficient means of estimating the variance of a conditional expectation, a problem of wide interest across multiple scientific domains that also lies at the heart of uncertainty quantification for supervised learning ensembles. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] [ code ] &copy JMLR 2021. ( edit, beta )

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JMLR Journal 2020 Journal Article

Randomization as Regularization: A Degrees of Freedom Explanation for Random Forest Success

Lucas Mentch
Siyu Zhou

Random forests remain among the most popular off-the-shelf supervised machine learning tools with a well-established track record of predictive accuracy in both regression and classification settings. Despite their empirical success as well as a bevy of recent work investigating their statistical properties, a full and satisfying explanation for their success has yet to be put forth. Here we aim to take a step forward in this direction by demonstrating that the additional randomness injected into individual trees serves as a form of implicit regularization, making random forests an ideal model in low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) settings. Specifically, from a model-complexity perspective, we show that the mtry parameter in random forests serves much the same purpose as the shrinkage penalty in explicitly regularized regression procedures like lasso and ridge regression. To highlight this point, we design a randomized linear-model-based forward selection procedure intended as an analogue to tree-based random forests and demonstrate its surprisingly strong empirical performance. Numerous demonstrations on both real and synthetic data are provided. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2020. ( edit, beta )

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JMLR Journal 2016 Journal Article

Quantifying Uncertainty in Random Forests via Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests

Lucas Mentch
Giles Hooker

This work develops formal statistical inference procedures for predictions generated by supervised learning ensembles. Ensemble methods based on bootstrapping, such as bagging and random forests, have improved the predictive accuracy of individual trees, but fail to provide a framework in which distributional results can be easily determined. Instead of aggregating full bootstrap samples, we consider predicting by averaging over trees built on subsamples of the training set and demonstrate that the resulting estimator takes the form of a U-statistic. As such, predictions for individual feature vectors are asymptotically normal, allowing for confidence intervals to accompany predictions. In practice, a subset of subsamples is used for computational speed; here our estimators take the form of incomplete U-statistics and equivalent results are derived. We further demonstrate that this setup provides a framework for testing the significance of features. Moreover, the internal estimation method we develop allows us to estimate the variance parameters and perform these inference procedures at no additional computational cost. Simulations and illustrations on a real data set are provided. [abs] [ pdf ][ bib ] &copy JMLR 2016. ( edit, beta )

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