EAAI Journal 2026 Journal Article
A multivariate long-term time-series prediction model for water quality based on Transformer architecture with spectral reconstruction optimizer
- Dashe Li
- Ying Li
- Lu Liu
- Xiaodong Ji
- Haoran Xing
Predicting key water quality parameters, such as dissolved oxygen, is of considerable importance for water environment monitoring and aquaculture management. It also provides scientific support to achieve ecological protection and sustainable development. However, long-term prediction faces challenges such as difficulty in nonstationary information modeling, insufficient perception of intervariable dependency structures, and limited feature expression. This study proposes a multivariate long-term time-series prediction model based on the Transformer architecture. First, a spectral reconstruction optimizer is designed to explicitly enhance and reconstruct the intermediate frequency energy in the frequency domain to solve the information asymmetry problem caused by the dominance of low frequencies in the frequency space distribution of time series. Second, a graph-structured feature modulation mechanism is constructed to dynamically adjust variable features by integrating dual-pooling compression and graph-structured modeling operations to explore potential cross-variable synergies. Finally, dual-stream hybrid attention is used. This mechanism introduces a learnable fusion of Squared Rectified Linear unit (ReLU 2 ) and softmax-attention based on a dense–sparse dual-branch structure, considering both information retention and key dependency enhancement. This study conducted experiments on six ocean datasets for 168 time steps in the future, indicating that the proposed model outperformed seven baseline models with higher accuracy and stronger generalization ability. For example, on the BaffleCreek dataset, the mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) of the proposed model were reduced by an average of 17. 50% and 16. 45%, respectively. Similarly, on the Shandong Peninsula dataset, the reductions were 31. 29% and 31. 24% for MAE and RMSE, respectively.