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Linxiao Yang

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6 papers

2 author rows

ICML Conference 2025 Conference Paper

A Non-isotropic Time Series Diffusion Model with Moving Average Transitions

Chenxi Wang
Linxiao Yang
Zhixian Wang
Liang Sun 0001
Yi Wang 0022

Diffusion models, known for their generative ability, have recently been adapted to time series analysis. Most pioneering works rely on the standard isotropic diffusion, treating each time step and the entire frequency spectrum identically. However, it may not be suitable for time series, which often have more informative low-frequency components. We empirically found that direct application of standard diffusion to time series may cause gradient contradiction during training, due to the rapid decrease of low-frequency information in the diffusion process. To this end, we proposed a novel time series diffusion model, MA-TSD, which utilizes the moving average, a natural low-frequency filter, as the forward transition. Its backward process is accelerable like DDIM and can be further considered a time series super-resolution. Our experiments on various datasets demonstrated MA-TSD’s superior performance in time series forecasting and super-resolution tasks.

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IJCAI Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Learning to Extrapolate and Adjust: Two-Stage Meta-Learning for Concept Drift in Online Time Series Forecasting

Weiqi Chen
Zhaoyang Zhu
Yifan Zhang
Lefei Shen
Linxiao Yang
Qingsong Wen
Liang Sun

The inherent non-stationarity of time series in practical applications poses significant challenges for accurate forecasting. This paper tackles the concept drift problem where the underlying distribution or environment of time series changes. To better describe the characteristics and effectively model concept drifts, we first classify them into macro-drift (stable, long-term changes) and micro-drift (sudden, short-term fluctuations). Next, we propose a unified meta-learning framework called LEAF (Learning to Extrapolate and Adjust for Forecasting), where an extrapolation module is first introduced to track and extrapolate the prediction model in latent space considering macro-drift, and then an adjustment module incorporates meta-learnable surrogate loss to capture sample-specific micro-drift patterns. LEAF’s dual-stage approach effectively addresses diverse concept drifts and is model-agnostic which can be compatible with any deep prediction model. We further provide theoretical analysis to justify why the proposed framework can handle macro-drift and micro-drift. To facilitate further research in this field, we release three electric load time series datasets collected from real-world scenarios, exhibiting diverse and typical concept drifts. Extensive experiments on multiple datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of LEAF.

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ICML Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Explain Temporal Black-Box Models via Functional Decomposition

Linxiao Yang
Yunze Tong
Xinyue Gu
Liang Sun 0001

How to explain temporal models is a significant challenge due to the inherent characteristics of time series data, notably the strong temporal dependencies and interactions between observations. Unlike ordinary tabular data, data at different time steps in time series usually interact dynamically, forming influential patterns that shape the model’s predictions, rather than only acting in isolation. Existing explanatory approaches for time series often overlook these crucial temporal interactions by treating time steps as separate entities, leading to a superficial understanding of model behavior. To address this challenge, we introduce FDTempExplainer, an innovative model-agnostic explanation method based on functional decomposition, tailored to unravel the complex interplay within black-box time series models. Our approach disentangles the individual contributions from each time step, as well as the aggregated influence of their interactions, in a rigorous framework. FDTempExplainer accurately measures the strength of interactions, yielding insights that surpass those from baseline models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in a wide range of time series applications, including anomaly detection, classification, and forecasting, showing its superior performance to the state-of-the-art algorithms.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Task-oriented Time Series Imputation Evaluation via Generalized Representers

Zhixian Wang
Linxiao Yang
Liang Sun
Qingsong Wen
Yi Wang

Time series analysis is widely used in many fields such as power energy, economics, and transportation, including different tasks such as forecasting, anomaly detection, classification, etc. Missing values are widely observed in these tasks, and often leading to unpredictable negative effects on existing methods, hindering their further application. In response to this situation, existing time series imputation methods mainly focus on restoring sequences based on their data characteristics, while ignoring the performance of the restored sequences in downstream tasks. Considering different requirements of downstream tasks (e. g. , forecasting), this paper proposes an efficient downstream task-oriented time series imputation evaluation approach. By combining time series imputation with neural network models used for downstream tasks, the gain of different imputation strategies on downstream tasks is estimated without retraining, and the most favorable imputation value for downstream tasks is given by combining different imputation strategies according to the estimated gain.

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NeurIPS Conference 2021 Conference Paper

Learning Interpretable Decision Rule Sets: A Submodular Optimization Approach

Fan Yang
Kai He
Linxiao Yang
Hongxia Du
Jingbang Yang
Bo Yang
Liang Sun

Rule sets are highly interpretable logical models in which the predicates for decision are expressed in disjunctive normal form (DNF, OR-of-ANDs), or, equivalently, the overall model comprises an unordered collection of if-then decision rules. In this paper, we consider a submodular optimization based approach for learning rule sets. The learning problem is framed as a subset selection task in which a subset of all possible rules needs to be selected to form an accurate and interpretable rule set. We employ an objective function that exhibits submodularity and thus is amenable to submodular optimization techniques. To overcome the difficulty arose from dealing with the exponential-sized ground set of rules, the subproblem of searching a rule is casted as another subset selection task that asks for a subset of features. We show it is possible to write the induced objective function for the subproblem as a difference of two submodular (DS) functions to make it approximately solvable by DS optimization algorithms. Overall, the proposed approach is simple, scalable, and likely to be benefited from further research on submodular optimization. Experiments on real datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

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NeurIPS Conference 2019 Conference Paper

Self-supervised GAN: Analysis and Improvement with Multi-class Minimax Game

Ngoc-Trung Tran
Viet-Hung Tran
Bao-Ngoc Nguyen
Linxiao Yang
Ngai-Man (Man) Cheung

Self-supervised (SS) learning is a powerful approach for representation learning using unlabeled data. Recently, it has been applied to Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) training. Specifically, SS tasks were proposed to address the catastrophic forgetting issue in the GAN discriminator. In this work, we perform an in-depth analysis to understand how SS tasks interact with learning of generator. From the analysis, we identify issues of SS tasks which allow a severely mode-collapsed generator to excel the SS tasks. To address the issues, we propose new SS tasks based on a multi-class minimax game. The competition between our proposed SS tasks in the game encourages the generator to learn the data distribution and generate diverse samples. We provide both theoretical and empirical analysis to support that our proposed SS tasks have better convergence property. We conduct experiments to incorporate our proposed SS tasks into two different GAN baseline models. Our approach establishes state-of-the-art FID scores on CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100, STL-10, CelebA, Imagenet $32\times32$ and Stacked-MNIST datasets, outperforming existing works by considerable margins in some cases. Our unconditional GAN model approaches performance of conditional GAN without using labeled data. Our code: \url{https: //github. com/tntrung/msgan}

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