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Lincen Yang

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AAAI Conference 2026 Conference Paper

Learning Subgroups with Maximum Treatment Effects Without Causal Heuristics

Lincen Yang
Zhong Li
Matthijs van Leeuwen
Saber Salehkaleybar

Discovering subgroups with the maximum average treatment effect is crucial for targeted decision making in domains such as precision medicine, public policy, and education. While most prior work is formulated in the potential‑outcome framework, the corresponding structural causal model (SCM) for this task has been largely overlooked. In practice, two approaches dominate. The first estimates pointwise conditional treatment effects and then fits a tree on those estimates, effectively turning subgroup estimation into the harder problem of accurate pointwise estimation. The second constructs decision trees or rule sets with ad‑hoc 'causal' heuristics, typically without rigorous justification for why a given heuristic may be used or whether such heuristics are necessary at all. We address these issues by studying the problem directly under the SCM framework. Under the assumption of a partition-based model, we show that optimal subgroup discovery reduces to recovering the data-generating models and hence a standard supervised learning problem (regression or classification). This allows us to adopt any partition-based methods to learn the subgroup from data. We instantiate the approach with CART, arguably one of the most widely used tree-based method, to learn the subgroup with maximum treatment effect. Finally, on a large collection of synthetic and semi‑synthetic datasets, we compare our method against a wide range of baselines and find that our approach, which avoids such causal heuristics, more accurately identifies subgroups with maximum treatment effect.

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NeurIPS Conference 2025 Conference Paper

Scalable, Explainable and Provably Robust Anomaly Detection with One-Step Flow Matching

Zhong Li
Qi Huang
Yuxuan Zhu
Lincen Yang
Mohammad Mohammadi Amiri
Niki van Stein
Matthijs van Leeuwen

We introduce Time-Conditioned Contraction Matching (TCCM), a novel method for semi-supervised anomaly detection in tabular data. TCCM is inspired by flow matching, a recent generative modeling framework that learns velocity fields between probability distributions and has shown strong performance compared to diffusion models and generative adversarial networks. Instead of directly applying flow matching as originally formulated, TCCM builds on its core idea—learning velocity fields between distributions—but simplifies the framework by predicting a time-conditioned contraction vector toward a fixed target (the origin) at each sampled time step. This design offers three key advantages: (1) a lightweight and scalable training objective that removes the need for solving ordinary differential equations during training and inference; (2) an efficient scoring strategy called one time-step deviation, which quantifies deviation from expected contraction behavior in a single forward pass, addressing the inference bottleneck of existing continuous-time models such as DTE (a diffusion-based model with leading anomaly detection accuracy but heavy inference cost); and (3) explainability and provable robustness, as the learned velocity field operates directly in input space, making the anomaly score inherently feature-wise attributable; moreover, the score function is Lipschitz-continuous with respect to the input, providing theoretical guarantees under small perturbations. Extensive experiments on the ADBench benchmark show that TCCM strikes a favorable balance between detection accuracy and inference cost, outperforming state-of-the-art methods—especially on high-dimensional and large-scale datasets. The source code is provided at https: //github. com/ZhongLIFR/TCCM-NIPS.

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NeurIPS Conference 2024 Conference Paper

Conditional Density Estimation with Histogram Trees

Lincen Yang
Matthijs van Leeuwen

Conditional density estimation (CDE) goes beyond regression by modeling the full conditional distribution, providing a richer understanding of the data than just the conditional mean in regression. This makes CDE particularly useful in critical application domains. However, interpretable CDE methods are understudied. Current methods typically employ kernel-based approaches, using kernel functions directly for kernel density estimation or as basis functions in linear models. In contrast, despite their conceptual simplicity and visualization suitability, tree-based methods---which are arguably more comprehensible---have been largely overlooked for CDE tasks. Thus, we propose the Conditional Density Tree (CDTree), a fully non-parametric model consisting of a decision tree in which each leaf is formed by a histogram model. Specifically, we formalize the problem of learning a CDTree using the minimum description length (MDL) principle, which eliminates the need for tuning the hyperparameter for regularization. Next, we propose an iterative algorithm that, although greedily, searches the optimal histogram for every possible node split. Our experiments demonstrate that, in comparison to existing interpretable CDE methods, CDTrees are both more accurate (as measured by the log-loss) and more robust against irrelevant features. Further, our approach leads to smaller tree sizes than existing tree-based models, which benefits interpretability.

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